Development of a relationship between physical parameters of tsunami waves and tsunami intensity based on macroscopic effects and its application to the Italian tsunami database

Tsunamis are rare events. However, their impact can be devastating and it may extend to large geographical areas. For low-probability high-impact events like tsunamis, it is crucial to implement all possible actions to mitigate the risk. The tsunami hazard assessment is the result of a scientific process that integrates traditional geological methods, numerical modelling and the analysis of tsunami sources and historical records. For this reason, analysing past events and understanding how they interacted with the land is the only way to inform tsunami source and propagation models, and quantitatively test forecast models like hazard analyses. The primary objective of this thesis is to establish an explicit relationship between the macroscopic intensity, derived from historical descriptions, and the quantitative physical parameters measuring tsunami waves. This is done first by defining an approximate estimation method based on a simplified 1D physical onshore propagation model to convert the available observations into one reference physical metric. Wave height at the coast was chosen as the reference due to its stability and independence of inland effects. This method was then implemented for a set of well-known past events to build a homogeneous dataset with both macroseismic intensity and wave height. By performing an orthogonal regression, a direct and invertible empirical relationship could be established between the two parameters, accounting for their relevant uncertainties. The target relationship is extensively tested and finally applied to the Italian Tsunami Effect Database (ITED), providing a homogeneous estimation of the wave height for all existing tsunami observations in Italy. This provides the opportunity for meaningful comparison for models and simulations, as well as quantitatively testing tsunami hazard models for the Italian coasts and informing tsunami risk management initiatives.

Impact of irrigation in the Po valley (Italy) on meteorological parameters through numerical simulation

Recent studies found that soil-atmosphere coupling features, through soil moisture, have been crucial to simulate well heat waves amplitude, duration and intensity. Moreover, it was found that soil moisture depletion both in Winter and Spring anticipates strong heat waves during the Summer. Irrigation in geophysical studies can be intended as an anthropogenic forcing to the soil-moisture, besides changes in land proprieties. In this study, the irrigation was add to a LAM hydrostatic model (BOLAM) and coupled with the soil. The response of the model to irrigation perturbation is analyzed during a dry Summer season. To identify a dry Summer, with overall positive temperature anomalies, an extensive climatological characterization of 2015 was done. The method included a statistical validation on the reference period distribution used to calculate the anomalies. Drought conditions were observed during Summer 2015 and previous seasons, both on the analyzed region and the Alps. Moreover July was characterized as an extreme event for the referred distribution. The numerical simulation consisted on the summer season of 2015 and two run: a control run (CTR), with the soil coupling and a perturbed run (IPR). The perturbation consists on a mask of land use created from the Cropland FAO dataset, where an irrigation water flux of 3 mm/day was applied from 6 A.M. to 9 A.M. every day. The results show that differences between CTR and IPR has a strong daily cycle. The main modifications are on the air masses proprieties, not on to the dynamics. However, changes in the circulation at the boundaries of the Po Valley are observed, and a diagnostic spatial correlation of variable differences shows that soil moisture perturbation explains well the variation observed in the 2 meters height temperature and in the latent heat fluxes.On the other hand, does not explain the spatial shift up and downslope observed during different periods of the day. Given the results, irrigation process affects the atmospheric proprieties on a larger scale than the irrigation, therefore it is important in daily forecast, particularly during hot and dry periods.

Nonlinear modelling of non-structural masonry walls under a low-intensity earthquake motion: calibration through a parametric study

This thesis aims to understand the behavior of a low-rise unreinforced masonry building (URM), the typical residential house in the Netherlands, when subjected to low-intensity earthquakes. In fact, in the last decades, the Groningen region was hit by several shallow earthquakes caused by the extraction of natural gas. In particular, the focus is addressed to the internal non-structural walls and to their interaction with the structural parts of the building. A simple and cost-efficient 2D FEM model is developed, focused on the interfaces representing mortar layers that are present between the non-structural walls and the rest of the structure. As a reference for geometries and materials, it has been taken into consideration a prototype that was built in full-scale at the EUCENTRE laboratory of Pavia (Italy). Firstly, a quasi-static analysis is performed by gradually applying a prescribed displacement on the roof floor of the structure. Sensitivity analyses are conducted on some key parameters characterizing mortar. This analysis allows for the calibration of their values and the evaluation of the reliability of the model. Successively, a transient analysis is performed to effectively subject the model to a seismic action and hence also evaluate the mechanical response of the building over time. Moreover, it was possible to compare the results of this analysis with the displacements recorded in the experimental tests by creating a model representing the entire considered structure. As a result, some conditions for the model calibration are defined. The reliability of the model is then confirmed by both the reasonable results obtained from the sensitivity analysis and the compatibility of the values obtained for the top displacement of the roof floor of the experimental test, and the same value acquired from the structural model.