Probabilistic Envelope Curves for Extreme Rainfall Events - Curve Inviluppo Probabilistiche per Precipitazioni Estreme

A regional envelope curve (REC) of flood flows summarises the current bound on our experience of extreme floods in a region. RECs are available for most regions of the world. Recent scientific papers introduced a probabilistic interpretation of these curves and formulated an empirical estimator of the recurrence interval T associated with a REC, which, in principle, enables us to use RECs for design purposes in ungauged basins. The main aim of this work is twofold. First, it extends the REC concept to extreme rainstorm events by introducing the Depth-Duration Envelope Curves (DDEC), which are defined as the regional upper bound on all the record rainfall depths at present for various rainfall duration. Second, it adapts the probabilistic interpretation proposed for RECs to DDECs and it assesses the suitability of these curves for estimating the T-year rainfall event associated with a given duration and large T values. Probabilistic DDECs are complementary to regional frequency analysis of rainstorms and their utilization in combination with a suitable rainfall-runoff model can provide useful indications on the magnitude of extreme floods for gauged and ungauged basins. The study focuses on two different national datasets, the peak over threshold (POT) series of rainfall depths with duration 30 min., 1, 3, 9 and 24 hrs. obtained for 700 Austrian raingauges and the Annual Maximum Series (AMS) of rainfall depths with duration spanning from 5 min. to 24 hrs. collected at 220 raingauges located in northern-central Italy. The estimation of the recurrence interval of DDEC requires the quantification of the equivalent number of independent data which, in turn, is a function of the cross-correlation among sequences. While the quantification and modelling of intersite dependence is a straightforward task for AMS series, it may be cumbersome for POT series. This paper proposes a possible approach to address this problem.

Genetic variability and differentiation in the Mediterranean endemic starry ray Raja asterias (Delaroche, 1809)

The present study deal with the population structure and connectivity of the Mediterranean endemic starry ray Raja asterias (Delaroche, 1809) in the Western and Eastern Mediterranean basin. A panel of eight microsatellite loci which cross-amplify in Rajidae (El Nagar, 2010) was used to assess population connectivity and structure. Those aims were investigated by analyzing the genetic variation of 9 population sample for a total of 185 individuals collected during past scientific surveys (MEDITS, GRUND), commercial trawling and also directly at fish markets. The purpose of this thesis is to estimate the genetic divergence occurring between the Mediterranean populations and, in particular, to assess the presence of any barrier (geographic, hydrogeological and biological) to gene flow for this species. Different statistical approaches were performed to reach this aim evaluating both the genetic diversity (nucleotide diversity, allelic richness, observed and expected heterozygosity and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium test) and the population differentiation patterns (pairwise Fst estimated and population structure analysis). The results obtained from the analysis of the microsatellite dataset suggest a geographic and genetic separation between the starry ray populations of the Mediterranean basin into three or four distinct groups: Western and Eastern Mediterranean basins and Sicilian coast always clustering as an independent group and Algeria which could be or not considered another separate group. The data were discussed from both an evolutionary and a conservation point of view and in relation to previous results obtained by the analysis of mitochondrial marker. A comparison with other Mediterranean demersal skate species was performed in order to better contextualise our results. Finally, our results could offer useful information to protect vulnerable species as R. asterias and developing effective conservation plans in the Mediterranean.

Genetic and morphological variation and differentiation of Raja clavata populations in the European seas: marker development and preliminary data

In this study the population structure and connectivity of the Mediterranean and Atlantic Raja clavata (L., 1758) were investigated by analyzing the genetic variation of six population samples (N = 144) at seven nuclear microsatellite loci. The genetic dataset was generated by selecting population samples available in the tissue databases of the GenoDREAM laboratory (University of Bologna) and of the Department of Life Sciences and Environment (University of Cagliari), all collected during past scientific surveys (MEDITS, GRUND) from different geographical locations in the Mediterranean basin and North-east Atlantic sea, as North Sea, Sardinian coasts, Tuscany coasts and Cyprus Island. This thesis deals with to estimate the genetic diversity and differentiation among 6 geographical samples, in particular, to assess the presence of any barrier (geographic, hydrogeological or biological) to gene flow evaluating both the genetic diversity (nucleotide diversity, observed and expected heterozygosity, Hardy- Weinberg equilibrium analysis) and population differentiation (Fst estimates, population structure analysis). In addition to molecular analysis, quantitative representation and statistical analysis of morphological individuals shape are performed using geometric morphometrics methods and statistical tests. Geometric coordinates call landmarks are fixed in 158 individuals belonging to two population samples of Raja clavata and in population samples of closely related species, Raja straeleni (cryptic sibling) and Raja asterias, to assess significant morphological differences at multiple taxonomic levels. The results obtained from the analysis of the microsatellite dataset suggested a geographic and genetic separation between populations from Central-Western and Eastern Mediterranean basins. Furthermore, the analysis also showed that there was no separation between geographic samples from North Atlantic Ocean and central-Western Mediterranean, grouping them to a panmictic population. The Landmark-based geometric morphometry method results showed significant differences of body shape able to discriminate taxa at tested levels (from species to populations).

Tecniche regionali di stima della portata di progetto: Impatto della correlazione spaziale tra le serie di osservazioni

La stima degli indici idrometrici in bacini non strumentati rappresenta un problema che la ricerca internazionale ha affrontato attraverso il cosiddetto PUB (Predictions on Ungauged Basins – IAHS, 2002-2013). Attraverso l’analisi di un’area di studio che comprende 61 bacini del Sud-Est americano, si descrivono e applicano due tecniche di stima molto diverse fra loro: il metodo regressivo ai Minimi Quadrati Generalizzati (GLS) e il Topological kriging (TK). Il primo considera una serie di fattori geomorfoclimatici relativi ai bacini oggetto di studio, e ne estrae i pesi per un modello di regressione lineare dei quantili; il secondo è un metodo di tipo geostatistico che considera il quantile come una variabile regionalizzata su supporto areale (l’area del bacino), tenendo conto della dislocazione geografica e l’eventuale struttura annidata dei bacini d’interesse. L’applicazione di questi due metodi ha riguardato una serie di quantili empirici associati ai tempi di ritorno di 10, 50, 100 e 500 anni, con lo scopo di valutare le prestazioni di un loro possibile accoppiamento, attraverso l’interpolazione via TK dei residui GLS in cross-validazione jack-knife e con differenti vicinaggi. La procedura risulta essere performante, con un indice di efficienza di Nash-Sutcliffe pari a 0,9 per tempi di ritorno bassi ma stazionario su 0,8 per gli altri valori, con un trend peggiorativo all’aumentare di TR e prestazioni pressoché invariate al variare del vicinaggio. L’applicazione ha mostrato che i risultati possono migliorare le prestazioni del metodo GLS ed essere paragonabili ai risultati del TK puro, confermando l’affidabilità del metodo geostatistico ad applicazioni idrologiche.