Anisotropic seismic tomography with the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo

The established isotropic tomographic models show the features of subduction zones in terms of seismic velocity anomalies, but they are generally subjected to the generation of artifacts due to the lack of anisotropy in forward modelling. There is evidence for the significant influence of seismic anisotropy in the mid-upper mantle, especially for boundary layers like subducting slabs. As consequence, in isotropic models artifacts may be misinterpreted as compositional or thermal heterogeneities. In this thesis project the application of a trans-dimensional Metropolis-Hastings method is investigated in the context of anisotropic seismic tomography. This choice arises as a response to the important limitations introduced by traditional inversion methods which use iterative procedures of optimization of a function object of the inversion. On the basis of a first implementation of the Bayesian sampling algorithm, the code is tested with some cartesian two-dimensional models, and then extended to polar coordinates and dimensions typical of subduction zones, the main focus proposed for this method. Synthetic experiments with increasing complexity are realized to test the performance of the method and the precautions for multiple contexts, taking into account also the possibility to apply seismic ray-tracing iteratively. The code developed is tested mainly for 2D inversions, future extensions will allow the anisotropic inversion of seismological data to provide more realistic imaging of real subduction zones, less subjected to generation of artifacts.

Conditional entropy and predictability for non-reversible Markov systems

The purpose of this thesis is to clarify the role of non-equilibrium stationary currents of Markov processes in the context of the predictability of future states of the system. Once the connection between the predictability and the conditional entropy is established, we provide a comprehensive approach to the definition of a multi-particle Markov system. In particular, starting from the well-known theory of random walk on network, we derive the non-linear master equation for an interacting multi-particle system under the one-step process hypothesis, highlighting the limits of its tractability and the prop- erties of its stationary solution. Lastly, in order to study the impact of the NESS on the predictability at short times, we analyze the conditional entropy by modulating the intensity of the stationary currents, both for a single-particle and a multi-particle Markov system. The results obtained analytically are numerically tested on a 5-node cycle network and put in correspondence with the stationary entropy production. Furthermore, because of the low dimensionality of the single-particle system, an analysis of its spectral properties as a function of the modulated stationary currents is performed.