Private sensors and crowdsourced rainfall data: accuracy and effectiveness for monitoring severe events and mapping pluvial flooding in urban areas

The increasing number of extreme rainfall events, combined with the high population density and the imperviousness of the land surface, makes urban areas particularly vulnerable to pluvial flooding. In order to design and manage cities to be able to deal with this issue, the reconstruction of weather phenomena is essential. Among the most interesting data sources which show great potential are the observational networks of private sensors managed by citizens (crowdsourcing). The number of these personal weather stations is consistently increasing, and the spatial distribution roughly follows population density. Precisely for this reason, they perfectly suit this detailed study on the modelling of pluvial flood in urban environments. The uncertainty associated with these measurements of precipitation is still a matter of research. In order to characterise the accuracy and precision of the crowdsourced data, we carried out exploratory data analyses. A comparison between Netatmo hourly precipitation amounts and observations of the same quantity from weather stations managed by national weather services is presented. The crowdsourced stations have very good skills in rain detection but tend to underestimate the reference value. In detail, the accuracy and precision of crowd- sourced data change as precipitation increases, improving the spread going to the extreme values. Then, the ability of this kind of observation to improve the prediction of pluvial flooding is tested. To this aim, the simplified raster-based inundation model incorporated in the Saferplaces web platform is used for simulating pluvial flooding. Different precipitation fields have been produced and tested as input in the model. Two different case studies are analysed over the most densely populated Norwegian city: Oslo. The crowdsourced weather station observations, bias-corrected (i.e. increased by 25%), showed very good skills in detecting flooded areas.

Noisy Oncology: applications of bounded noise transitions in modelling tumor growth

I tumori macroscopici e microscopici, dopo la loro prima fase di crescita, sono composti da un numero medio elevato di cellule. Così, in assenza di perturbazioni esterne, la loro crescita e i punti di equilibrio possono essere descritti da equazioni differenziali. Tuttavia, il tumore interagisce fortemente col macroambiente che lo circonda e di conseguenza una descrizione del tutto deterministica risulta a volte inappropriata. In questo caso si può considerare l'interazione con fluttuazioni statistiche, causate da disturbi esterni, utilizzando le equazioni differenziali stocastiche (SDE). Questo è vero in modo particolare quando si cerca di modellizzare tumori altamente immunogenici che interagiscono con il sistema immunitario, in quanto la complessità di questa interazione risulta in fenomeni di multistabilità. Così, il rumore può provocare disturbi e indurre transizioni di stato (Noise-Induced-Transitions). E' importante notare che una NIT può avere implicazioni profonde sulla vita di un paziente, dal momento che una transizione da uno stato di equilibrio piccolo, nelle dimensioni del tumore, ad uno stato di equilibrio macroscopico, nella maggior parte dei casi significa il passaggio dalla vita alla morte. Generalmente l'approccio standard è quello di modellizzare le fluttuazioni stocastiche dei parametri per mezzo di rumore gaussiano bianco o colorato. In alcuni casi però questa procedura è altamente inadeguata, a causa della illimitatezza intrinseca dei rumori gaussiani che può portare a gravi incongruenze biologiche: pertanto devono essere utilizzati dei rumori "limitati", che, tuttavia, sono molto meno studiati di quelli gaussiani. Inoltre, l'insorgenza di NIT dipende dal tipo di rumore scelto, che rivela un nuovo livello di complessità in biologia. Lo scopo di questa tesi è quello di studiare le applicazioni di due tipi diversi di "rumori limitati" nelle transizioni indotte in due casi: interazione tra tumore e sistema immunitario e chemioterapia dei tumori. Nel primo caso, abbiamo anche introdotto un nuovo modello matematico di terapia, che estende, in modo nuovo, il noto modello di Norton-Simon.

Evaluation of green algae deployment for organic pollutant removal in urban wastewater through ERE-CALUX potency assessment

The interest of the scientific community towards organic pollutants in freshwater streams is fairly recent. During the past 50 years, thousands of chemicals have been synthesized and released into the general environment. Nowadays their occurrence and effects on several organism, invertebrates, fish, birds, reptiles and also humans are well documented. Because of their action, some of these chemicals have been defined as Endocrine Disrupters Compounds (EDCs) and the public health implications of these EDCs have been the subject of scientific debate. Most interestingly, among those that were noticed to have some influence and effects on the endocrine system were the estrone, the 17β-estradiol, the 17α-estradiol, the estriol, the 17α-ethinylestradiol, the testosterone and the progesterone. This project focused its attention on the 17β-estradiol. Estradiol, or more precisely, 17β-estradiol (also commonly referred to as E2) is a human sex hormone. It belongs to the class of steroid hormones. In spite of the effort to remove these substances from the effluents, the actual wastewater treatment plants are not able to degrade or inactivate these organic compounds that are continually poured in the ecosystem. Through this work a new system for the wastewater treatment was tested, to assess the decrease of the estradiol in the water. It involved the action of Chlorella vulgaris, a fresh water green microalga belonging to the family of the Chlorellaceae. This microorganism was selected for its adaptability and for its photosynthetic efficiency. To detect the decrease of the target compound in the water a CALUX bioassay analysis was chosen. Three different experiments were carried on to pursue the aim of the project. By analysing their results several aspects emerged. It was assessed the presence of EDCs inside the water used to prepare the culture media. C. vulgaris, under controlled conditions, could be efficient for this purpose, although further researches are essential to deepen the knowledge of this complex phenomenon. Ultimately by assessing the toxicity of the effluent against C. vulgaris, it was clear that at determined concentrations, it could affect the normal growth rate of this microorganism.