Probabilistic Envelope Curves for Extreme Rainfall Events - Curve Inviluppo Probabilistiche per Precipitazioni Estreme

A regional envelope curve (REC) of flood flows summarises the current bound on our experience of extreme floods in a region. RECs are available for most regions of the world. Recent scientific papers introduced a probabilistic interpretation of these curves and formulated an empirical estimator of the recurrence interval T associated with a REC, which, in principle, enables us to use RECs for design purposes in ungauged basins. The main aim of this work is twofold. First, it extends the REC concept to extreme rainstorm events by introducing the Depth-Duration Envelope Curves (DDEC), which are defined as the regional upper bound on all the record rainfall depths at present for various rainfall duration. Second, it adapts the probabilistic interpretation proposed for RECs to DDECs and it assesses the suitability of these curves for estimating the T-year rainfall event associated with a given duration and large T values. Probabilistic DDECs are complementary to regional frequency analysis of rainstorms and their utilization in combination with a suitable rainfall-runoff model can provide useful indications on the magnitude of extreme floods for gauged and ungauged basins. The study focuses on two different national datasets, the peak over threshold (POT) series of rainfall depths with duration 30 min., 1, 3, 9 and 24 hrs. obtained for 700 Austrian raingauges and the Annual Maximum Series (AMS) of rainfall depths with duration spanning from 5 min. to 24 hrs. collected at 220 raingauges located in northern-central Italy. The estimation of the recurrence interval of DDEC requires the quantification of the equivalent number of independent data which, in turn, is a function of the cross-correlation among sequences. While the quantification and modelling of intersite dependence is a straightforward task for AMS series, it may be cumbersome for POT series. This paper proposes a possible approach to address this problem.

Implementation of a non ground meta interpreter for defeasible logic

Human reasoning is a fascinating and complex cognitive process that can be applied in different research areas such as philosophy, psychology, laws and financial. Unfortunately, developing supporting software (to those different areas) able to cope such as complex reasoning it’s difficult and requires a suitable logic abstract formalism. In this thesis we aim to develop a program, that has the job to evaluate a theory (a set of rules) w.r.t. a Goal, and provide some results such as “The Goal is derivable from the KB5 (of the theory)”. In order to achieve this goal we need to analyse different logics and choose the one that best meets our needs. In logic, usually, we try to determine if a given conclusion is logically implied by a set of assumptions T (theory). However, when we deal with programming logic we need an efficient algorithm in order to find such implications. In this work we use a logic rather similar to human logic. Indeed, human reasoning requires an extension of the first order logic able to reach a conclusion depending on not definitely true6 premises belonging to a incomplete set of knowledge. Thus, we implemented a defeasible logic7 framework able to manipulate defeasible rules. Defeasible logic is a non-monotonic logic designed for efficient defeasible reasoning by Nute (see Chapter 2). Those kind of applications are useful in laws area especially if they offer an implementation of an argumentation framework that provides a formal modelling of game. Roughly speaking, let the theory is the set of laws, a keyclaim is the conclusion that one of the party wants to prove (and the other one wants to defeat) and adding dynamic assertion of rules, namely, facts putted forward by the parties, then, we can play an argumentative challenge between two players and decide if the conclusion is provable or not depending on the different strategies performed by the players. Implementing a game model requires one more meta-interpreter able to evaluate the defeasible logic framework; indeed, according to Göedel theorem (see on page 127), we cannot evaluate the meaning of a language using the tools provided by the language itself, but we need a meta-language able to manipulate the object language8. Thus, rather than a simple meta-interpreter, we propose a Meta-level containing different Meta-evaluators. The former has been explained above, the second one is needed to perform the game model, and the last one will be used to change game execution and tree derivation strategies.

Super shell logic - [sush-ic] - progetto di un edificio per il tempo libero a Tokyo. Implicazioni tettoniche ed estetiche delle logiche monoscocca integrate e stress lines analysis in architettura.

Implicazioni tettoniche ed estetiche delle logiche monoscocca integrate e stress lines analysis in architettura.

A probabilistic approach to classify the levee reliability

This work aims to evaluate the reliability of these levee systems, calculating the probability of “failure” of determined levee stretches under different loads, using probabilistic methods that take into account the fragility curves obtained through the Monte Carlo Method. For this study overtopping and piping are considered as failure mechanisms (since these are the most frequent) and the major levee system of the Po River with a primary focus on the section between Piacenza and Cremona, in the lower-middle area of the Padana Plain, is analysed. The novelty of this approach is to check the reliability of individual embankment stretches, not just a single section, while taking into account the variability of the levee system geometry from one stretch to another. This work takes also into consideration, for each levee stretch analysed, a probability distribution of the load variables involved in the definition of the fragility curves, where it is influenced by the differences in the topography and morphology of the riverbed along the sectional depth analysed as it pertains to the levee system in its entirety. A type of classification is proposed, for both failure mechanisms, to give an indication of the reliability of the levee system based of the information obtained by the fragility curve analysis. To accomplish this work, an hydraulic model has been developed where a 500-year flood is modelled to determinate the residual hazard value of failure for each stretch of levee near the corresponding water depth, then comparing the results with the obtained classifications. This work has the additional the aim of acting as an interface between the world of Applied Geology and Environmental Hydraulic Engineering where a strong collaboration is needed between the two professions to resolve and improve the estimation of hydraulic risk.

The arcuate fasciculus: an along-tract analysis with white matter probabilistic tractography

Il cervello umano è composto da una rete complessa, formata da fasci di assoni, che connettono le diverse aree cerebrali. Il fascio arcuato collega l’area imputata alla com- prensione del linguaggio con quella dedicata alla sua produzione. Il fascio arcuato è presente in entrambi gli emisferi cerebrali, anche se spesso è utilizzato prevalente- mente il sinistro. In questa tesi sono state valutate, in un campione di soggetti sani, le differenze tra fascio arcuato destro e sinistro, utilizzando la trattografia, metodica avanzata e non invasiva che permette la ricostruzione della traiettoria delle fibre con immagini RM (Risonanza Magnetica) pesate in diffusione. A questo scopo ho utilizzato un algoritmo probabilistico, che permette la stima di probabilità di connessione della fibra in oggetto con le diverse aree cerebrali, anche nelle sedi di incrocio con fibre di fasci diversi. Grazie all’implementazione di questo metodo, è stato possibile ottenere una ricostruzione accurata del fascio arcuato, an- che nell’emisfero destro dove è spesso critica, tanto da non essere possibile con altri algoritmi trattografici. Parametrizzando poi la geometria del tratto ho diviso il fascio arcuato in venti seg- menti e ho confrontato i parametri delle misure di diffusione, valutate nell’emisfero destro e sinistro. Da queste analisi emerge un’ampia variabilità nella geometria dell’arcuato, sia tra diversi soggetti che diversi emisferi. Nell’emisfero destro l’arcuato incrocia maggiormente fibre appartenenti ad altri fasci. Nell’emisfero sinistro le fibre dell’arcuato sono più compatte e si misura anche una maggiore connettività con altre aree del cervello coinvolte nelle funzioni linguistiche. Nella seconda fase dello studio ho applicato la stessa metodica in due pazienti con lesioni cerebrali, con l’obiettivo di testare il danno del fascio arcuato ipsilaterale alla lesione e stimare se nell’emisfero controlaterale si innescassero meccanismi di plastic- ità strutturale. Questa metodica può essere implementata, in un gruppo di pazienti omogenei, per identificare marcatori RM diagnostici nella fase di pianificazione pre- chirurgica e marcatori RM prognostici di recupero funzionale del linguaggio.