4 resultados para Prediction method

em AMS Tesi di Laurea - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna


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Arrhythmia is one kind of cardiovascular diseases that give rise to the number of deaths and potentially yields immedicable danger. Arrhythmia is a life threatening condition originating from disorganized propagation of electrical signals in heart resulting in desynchronization among different chambers of the heart. Fundamentally, the synchronization process means that the phase relationship of electrical activities between the chambers remains coherent, maintaining a constant phase difference over time. If desynchronization occurs due to arrhythmia, the coherent phase relationship breaks down resulting in chaotic rhythm affecting the regular pumping mechanism of heart. This phenomenon was explored by using the phase space reconstruction technique which is a standard analysis technique of time series data generated from nonlinear dynamical system. In this project a novel index is presented for predicting the onset of ventricular arrhythmias. Analysis of continuously captured long-term ECG data recordings was conducted up to the onset of arrhythmia by the phase space reconstruction method, obtaining 2-dimensional images, analysed by the box counting method. The method was tested using the ECG data set of three different kinds including normal (NR), Ventricular Tachycardia (VT), Ventricular Fibrillation (VF), extracted from the Physionet ECG database. Statistical measures like mean (μ), standard deviation (σ) and coefficient of variation (σ/μ) for the box-counting in phase space diagrams are derived for a sliding window of 10 beats of ECG signal. From the results of these statistical analyses, a threshold was derived as an upper bound of Coefficient of Variation (CV) for box-counting of ECG phase portraits which is capable of reliably predicting the impeding arrhythmia long before its actual occurrence. As future work of research, it was planned to validate this prediction tool over a wider population of patients affected by different kind of arrhythmia, like atrial fibrillation, bundle and brunch block, and set different thresholds for them, in order to confirm its clinical applicability.

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In Airbus GmbH (Hamburg) has been developed a new design of Rear Pressure Bulkhead (RPB) for the A320-family. The new model has been formed with vacuum forming technology. During this process the wrinkling phenomenon occurs. In this thesis is described an analytical model for prediction of wrinkling based on the energetic method of Timoshenko. Large deflection theory has been used for analyze two cases of study: a simply supported circular thin plate stamped by a spherical punch and a simply supported circular thin plate formed with vacuum forming technique. If the edges are free to displace radially, thin plates will develop radial wrinkles near the edge at a central deflection approximately equal to four plate thicknesses w0/ℎ≈4 if they’re stamped by a spherical punch and w0/ℎ≈3 if they’re formed with vacuum forming technique. Initially, there are four symmetrical wrinkles, but the number increases if the central deflection is increased. By using experimental results, the “Snaptrhough” phenomenon is described.

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Previous earthquakes showed that shear wall damage could lead to catastrophic failures of the reinforced concrete building. The lateral load capacity of shear walls needs to be estimated to minimize associated losses during catastrophic events; hence it is necessary to develop and validate reliable and stable numerical methods able to converge to reasonable estimations with minimum computational effort. The beam-column 1-D line element with fiber-type cross-section model is a practical option that yields results in agreement with experimental data. However, shortcomings of using this model to predict the local damage response may come from the fact that the model requires fine calibration of material properties to overcome regularization and size effects. To reduce the mesh-dependency of the numerical model, a regularization method based on the concept of post-yield energy is applied in this work to both the concrete and the steel material constitutive laws to predict the nonlinear cyclic response and failure mechanism of concrete shear walls. Different categories of wall specimens known to produce a different response under in plane cyclic loading for their varied geometric and detailing characteristics are considered in this study, namely: 1) scaled wall specimens designed according to the European seismic design code and 2) unique full-scale wall specimens detailed according to the U.S. design code to develop a ductile behavior under cyclic loading. To test the boundaries of application of the proposed method, two full-scale walls with a mixed shear-flexure response and different values of applied axial load are also considered. The results of this study show that the use of regularized constitutive models considerably enhances the response predictions capabilities of the model with regards to global force-drift response and failure mode. The simulations presented in this thesis demonstrate the proposed model to be a valuable tool for researchers and engineers.

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Sales prediction plays a huge role in modern business strategies. One of it's many use cases revolves around estimating the effects of promotions. While promotions generally have a positive effect on sales of the promoted product, they can also have a negative effect on those of other products. This phenomenon is calles sales cannibalisation. Sales cannibalisation can pose a big problem to sales forcasting algorithms. A lot of times, these algorithms focus on sales over time of a single product in a single store (a couple). This research focusses on using knowledge of a product across multiple different stores. To achieve this, we applied transfer learning on a neural model developed by Kantar Consulting to demo an approach to estimating the effect of cannibalisation. Our results show a performance increase of between 10 and 14 percent. This is a very good and desired result, and Kantar will use the approach when integrating this test method into their actual systems.