A Phase Space Box-counting based Method for Arrhythmia Prediction from Electrocardiogram Time Series

Arrhythmia is one kind of cardiovascular diseases that give rise to the number of deaths and potentially yields immedicable danger. Arrhythmia is a life threatening condition originating from disorganized propagation of electrical signals in heart resulting in desynchronization among different chambers of the heart. Fundamentally, the synchronization process means that the phase relationship of electrical activities between the chambers remains coherent, maintaining a constant phase difference over time. If desynchronization occurs due to arrhythmia, the coherent phase relationship breaks down resulting in chaotic rhythm affecting the regular pumping mechanism of heart. This phenomenon was explored by using the phase space reconstruction technique which is a standard analysis technique of time series data generated from nonlinear dynamical system. In this project a novel index is presented for predicting the onset of ventricular arrhythmias. Analysis of continuously captured long-term ECG data recordings was conducted up to the onset of arrhythmia by the phase space reconstruction method, obtaining 2-dimensional images, analysed by the box counting method. The method was tested using the ECG data set of three different kinds including normal (NR), Ventricular Tachycardia (VT), Ventricular Fibrillation (VF), extracted from the Physionet ECG database. Statistical measures like mean (μ), standard deviation (σ) and coefficient of variation (σ/μ) for the box-counting in phase space diagrams are derived for a sliding window of 10 beats of ECG signal. From the results of these statistical analyses, a threshold was derived as an upper bound of Coefficient of Variation (CV) for box-counting of ECG phase portraits which is capable of reliably predicting the impeding arrhythmia long before its actual occurrence. As future work of research, it was planned to validate this prediction tool over a wider population of patients affected by different kind of arrhythmia, like atrial fibrillation, bundle and brunch block, and set different thresholds for them, in order to confirm its clinical applicability.

Erasure error correcting codes applied to DTN communications.

The space environment has always been one of the most challenging for communications, both at physical and network layer. Concerning the latter, the most common challenges are the lack of continuous network connectivity, very long delays and relatively frequent losses. Because of these problems, the normal TCP/IP suite protocols are hardly applicable. Moreover, in space scenarios reliability is fundamental. In fact, it is usually not tolerable to lose important information or to receive it with a very large delay because of a challenging transmission channel. In terrestrial protocols, such as TCP, reliability is obtained by means of an ARQ (Automatic Retransmission reQuest) method, which, however, has not good performance when there are long delays on the transmission channel. At physical layer, Forward Error Correction Codes (FECs), based on the insertion of redundant information, are an alternative way to assure reliability. On binary channels, when single bits are flipped because of channel noise, redundancy bits can be exploited to recover the original information. In the presence of binary erasure channels, where bits are not flipped but lost, redundancy can still be used to recover the original information. FECs codes, designed for this purpose, are usually called Erasure Codes (ECs). It is worth noting that ECs, primarily studied for binary channels, can also be used at upper layers, i.e. applied on packets instead of bits, offering a very interesting alternative to the usual ARQ methods, especially in the presence of long delays. A protocol created to add reliability to DTN networks is the Licklider Transmission Protocol (LTP), created to obtain better performance on long delay links. The aim of this thesis is the application of ECs to LTP.

Analytical model for the prediction of wrinkling of rear pressure bulkheads

In Airbus GmbH (Hamburg) has been developed a new design of Rear Pressure Bulkhead (RPB) for the A320-family. The new model has been formed with vacuum forming technology. During this process the wrinkling phenomenon occurs. In this thesis is described an analytical model for prediction of wrinkling based on the energetic method of Timoshenko. Large deflection theory has been used for analyze two cases of study: a simply supported circular thin plate stamped by a spherical punch and a simply supported circular thin plate formed with vacuum forming technique. If the edges are free to displace radially, thin plates will develop radial wrinkles near the edge at a central deflection approximately equal to four plate thicknesses w0/ℎ≈4 if they’re stamped by a spherical punch and w0/ℎ≈3 if they’re formed with vacuum forming technique. Initially, there are four symmetrical wrinkles, but the number increases if the central deflection is increased. By using experimental results, the “Snaptrhough” phenomenon is described.

A method for automated generation of radiotherapy treatment plans for lung cancer

La radioterapia è una tecnica molto impiegata per la cura del cancro. Attualmente la somministrazione avviene principalmente attraverso la intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT, sovrapposizione di campi ad intensità modulata), un cui sviluppo recente è la volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT, irradiazione continua lungo un arco ininterrotto). La generazione di piani richiede esperienza ed abilità: un dosimetrista seleziona cost functions ed obiettivi ed un TPS ottimizza la disposizione dei segmenti ad intensità modulata. Se il medico giudica il risultato non soddisfacente, il processo riparte da capo (trial-and-error). Una alternativa è la generazione automatica di piani. Erasmus-iCycle, software prodotto presso ErasmusMC (Rotterdam, The Netherlands), è un algoritmo di ottimizzazione multicriteriale di piani radioterapici per ottimizzazione di intensità basato su una wish list. L'output consiste di piani Pareto-ottimali ad intensità modulata. La generazione automatica garantisce maggiore coerenza e qualità più elevata con tempi di lavoro ridotti. Nello studio, una procedura di generazione automatica di piani con modalità VMAT è stata sviluppata e valutata per carcinoma polmonare. Una wish list è stata generata attraverso una procedura iterativa su un gruppo ristretto di pazienti con la collaborazione di fisici medici ed oncologi e poi validata su un gruppo più ampio di pazienti. Nella grande maggioranza dei casi, i piani automatici sono stati giudicati dagli oncologi migliori rispetto ai rispettivi piani IMRT clinici generati manualmente. Solo in pochi casi una rapida calibrazione manuale specifica per il paziente si è resa necessaria per soddisfare tutti i requisiti clinici. Per un sottogruppo di pazienti si è mostrato che la qualità dei piani VMAT automatici era equivalente o superiore rispetto ai piani VMAT generati manualmente da un dosimetrista esperto. Complessivamente, si è dimostrata la possibilità di generare piani radioterapici VMAT ad alta qualità automaticamente, con interazione umana minima. L'introduzione clinica della procedura automatica presso ErasmusMC è iniziata (ottobre 2015).

Application of the Equivalent Static Analysis method to the design of a steel frame structure with added viscous dampers

All the structures designed by engineers are vulnerable to natural disasters including floods and earthquakes. The energy released during strong ground motions should be dissipated by structural elements. Before 1990’s, this energy was expected to be dissipated through the beams and columns which at the same time were a part of gravity-load-resisting system. However, the main disadvantage of this idea was that gravity-resisting-frame was not repairable. Hence, during 1990’s, the idea of designing passive energy dissipation systems, including dampers, emerged. At the beginning, main problem was lack of guidelines for passive energy dissipation systems. Although till 2000 many guidelines and procedures where published, yet most of them were based on complicated analysis which was not so convenient for engineers and practitioners. In order to solve this problem recently some alternative design methods are proposed including 1. Lopez Garcia (2001) simple procedure for optimal damper configuration in MDOF structures 2. Christopoulos and Filiatrault (2006) trial and error procedure 3. Silvestri et al. (2010) Five-Step Method. 4. Palermo et al. (2015) Direct Five-Step Method. 5. Palermo et al. (2016) Simplified Equivalent Static Analysis (ESA). In this study, effectiveness and differences between last three alternative methods have been evaluated.

Modelling and Verification of a Correction Factor to Evaluate the Efficiency of Solar Thermal Collectors with the Rapid Test Method

A new method for the evaluation of the efficiency of parabolic trough collectors, called Rapid Test Method, is investigated at the Solar Institut Jülich. The basic concept is to carry out measurements under stagnation conditions. This allows a fast and inexpensive process due to the fact that no working fluid is required. With this approach, the temperature reached by the inner wall of the receiver is assumed to be the stagnation temperature and hence the average temperature inside the collector. This leads to a systematic error which can be rectified through the introduction of a correction factor. A model of the collector is simulated with COMSOL Multipyisics to study the size of the correction factor depending on collector geometry and working conditions. The resulting values are compared with experimental data obtained at a test rig at the Solar Institut Jülich. These results do not match with the simulated ones. Consequentially, it was not pos-sible to verify the model. The reliability of both the model with COMSOL Multiphysics and of the measurements are analysed. The influence of the correction factor on the rapid test method is also studied, as well as the possibility of neglecting it by measuring the receiver’s inner wall temperature where it receives the least amount of solar rays. The last two chapters analyse the specific heat capacity as a function of pressure and tem-perature and present some considerations about the uncertainties on the efficiency curve obtained with the Rapid Test Method.

From the traditional verification approach to the spatial methods: a study of applicability of the SAL metric in the framework of the WMO project MesoVICT

Increasing in resolution of numerical weather prediction models has allowed more and more realistic forecasts of atmospheric parameters. Due to the growing variability into predicted fields the traditional verification methods are not always able to describe the model ability because they are based on a grid-point-by-grid-point matching between observation and prediction. Recently, new spatial verification methods have been developed with the aim of show the benefit associated to the high resolution forecast. Nested in among of the MesoVICT international project, the initially aim of this work is to compare the newly tecniques remarking advantages and disadvantages. First of all, the MesoVICT basic examples, represented by synthetic precipitation fields, have been examined. Giving an error evaluation in terms of structure, amplitude and localization of the precipitation fields, the SAL method has been studied more thoroughly respect to the others approaches with its implementation in the core cases of the project. The verification procedure has concerned precipitation fields over central Europe: comparisons between the forecasts performed by the 00z COSMO-2 model and the VERA (Vienna Enhanced Resolution Analysis) have been done. The study of these cases has shown some weaknesses of the methodology examined; in particular has been highlighted the presence of a correlation between the optimal domain size and the extention of the precipitation systems. In order to increase ability of SAL, a subdivision of the original domain in three subdomains has been done and the method has been applied again. Some limits have been found in cases in which at least one of the two domains does not show precipitation. The overall results for the subdomains have been summarized on scatter plots. With the aim to identify systematic errors of the model the variability of the three parameters has been studied for each subdomain.

Numerical prediction of the lateral displacement capacity of flexural reinforced concrete shear walls

Previous earthquakes showed that shear wall damage could lead to catastrophic failures of the reinforced concrete building. The lateral load capacity of shear walls needs to be estimated to minimize associated losses during catastrophic events; hence it is necessary to develop and validate reliable and stable numerical methods able to converge to reasonable estimations with minimum computational effort. The beam-column 1-D line element with fiber-type cross-section model is a practical option that yields results in agreement with experimental data. However, shortcomings of using this model to predict the local damage response may come from the fact that the model requires fine calibration of material properties to overcome regularization and size effects. To reduce the mesh-dependency of the numerical model, a regularization method based on the concept of post-yield energy is applied in this work to both the concrete and the steel material constitutive laws to predict the nonlinear cyclic response and failure mechanism of concrete shear walls. Different categories of wall specimens known to produce a different response under in plane cyclic loading for their varied geometric and detailing characteristics are considered in this study, namely: 1) scaled wall specimens designed according to the European seismic design code and 2) unique full-scale wall specimens detailed according to the U.S. design code to develop a ductile behavior under cyclic loading. To test the boundaries of application of the proposed method, two full-scale walls with a mixed shear-flexure response and different values of applied axial load are also considered. The results of this study show that the use of regularized constitutive models considerably enhances the response predictions capabilities of the model with regards to global force-drift response and failure mode. The simulations presented in this thesis demonstrate the proposed model to be a valuable tool for researchers and engineers.

Evaluation Metrics and Transfer Learning for Sales Prediction

Sales prediction plays a huge role in modern business strategies. One of it's many use cases revolves around estimating the effects of promotions. While promotions generally have a positive effect on sales of the promoted product, they can also have a negative effect on those of other products. This phenomenon is calles sales cannibalisation. Sales cannibalisation can pose a big problem to sales forcasting algorithms. A lot of times, these algorithms focus on sales over time of a single product in a single store (a couple). This research focusses on using knowledge of a product across multiple different stores. To achieve this, we applied transfer learning on a neural model developed by Kantar Consulting to demo an approach to estimating the effect of cannibalisation. Our results show a performance increase of between 10 and 14 percent. This is a very good and desired result, and Kantar will use the approach when integrating this test method into their actual systems.