Thermal structure and dynamical modeling of a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone

In the present work, a detailed analysis of a Mediterranean TLC occurred in January 2014 has been conducted. The author is not aware of other studies regarding this particular event at the publication of this thesis. In order to outline the cyclone evolution, observational data, including weather-stations data, satellite data, radar data and photographic evidence, were collected at first. After having identified the cyclone path and its general features, the GLOBO, BOLAM and MOLOCH NWP models, developed at ISAC-CNR (Bologna), were used to simulate the phenomenon. Particular attention was paid on the Mediterranean phase as well as on the Atlantic phase, since the cyclone showed a well defined precursor up to 3 days before the minimum formation in the Alboran Sea. The Mediterranean phase has been studied using different combinations of GLOBO, BOLAM and MOLOCH models, so as to evaluate the best model chain to simulate this kind of phenomena. The BOLAM and MOLOCH models showed the best performance, by adjusting the path erroneously deviated in the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and ECMWF operational models. The analysis of the cyclone thermal phase shown the presence of a deep-warm core structure in many cases, thus confirming the tropical-like nature of the system. Furthermore, the results showed high sensitivity to initial conditions in the whole lifetime of the cyclone, while the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) modification leads only to small changes in the Adriatic phase. The Atlantic phase has been studied using GLOBO and BOLAM model and with the aid of the same methodology already developed. After tracing the precursor, in the form of a low-pressure system, from the American East Coast to Spain, the thermal phase analysis was conducted. The parameters obtained showed evidence of a deep-cold core asymmetric structure during the whole Atlantic phase, while the first contact with the Mediterranean Sea caused a sudden transition to a shallow-warm core structure. The examination of Potential Vorticity (PV) 3-dimensional structure revealed the presence of a PV streamer that individually formed over Greenland and eventually interacted with the low-pressure system over the Spanish coast, favouring the first phase of the cyclone baroclinic intensification. Finally, the development of an automated system that tracks and studies the thermal phase of Mediterranean cyclones has been encouraged. This could lead to the forecast of potential tropical transition, against with a minimum computational investment.

Potential effect of marine traffic on white-beaked dolphin (Lagenorhynchus albirostris) distribution and behaviour in Faxaflói Bay, southwest Iceland

Faxaflói bay is a short, wide and shallow bay situated in the southwest of Iceland. Although hosting a rather high level of marine traffic, this area is inhabited by many different species of cetaceans, among which the white-beaked dolphin (Lagenorhynchus albirostris), found here all year-round. This study aimed to evaluate the potential effect of increasing marine traffic on white-beaked dolphins distribution and behaviour, and to determine whether or not a variation in sighting frequencies have occurred throughout years (2008 – 2014). Data on sightings and on behaviour, as well as photographic one, has been collected daily taking advantage of the whale-watching company “Elding” operating in the bay. Results have confirmed the importance of this area for white-beaked dolphins, which have shown a certain level of site fidelity. Despite the high level of marine traffic, this dolphin appears to tolerate the presence of boats: no differences in encounter durations and locations over the study years have occurred, even though with increasing number of vessels, an increase in avoidance strategies has been displayed. Furthermore, seasonal differences in probabilities of sightings, with respect to the time of the day, have been found, leading to suggest the existence of a daily cycle of their movements and activities within the bay. This study has also described a major decline in sighting rates throughout years raising concern about white-beaked dolphin conservation status in Icelandic waters. It is therefore highly recommended a new dedicated survey to be conducted in order to document the current population estimate, to better investigate on the energetic costs that chronic exposure to disturbances may cause, and to plan a more suitable conservation strategy for white-beaked dolphin around Iceland.