On The Timing of Default Losses: When and Why?

At the light of what happened in 2010 and 2011, a lot of European countries founded themselves in a difficult position where all the credit rating agencies were downgrading debt states. Problem of solvency and guarantees on the states' bond were perceived as too risky for a Monetary Union as Europe is. Fear of a contagion from Greece as well was threatening the other countries as Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland; while Germany and France asked for a division between risky and riskless bond in order to feel more safe. Our paper gets inspiration by Roch and Uhlig (2011), it refers to the Argentinian case examined by Arellano (2008) and examine possible interventions as monetization or bailout as proposed by Cole and Kehoe (2000). We propose a model in which a state defaults and cannot repay a fraction of the old bond; but contrary to Roch and Uhlig that where considering a one-time cost of default we consider default as an accumulation of losses, perceived as unpaid fractions of the old debts. Our contributions to literature is that default immediately imply that economy faces a bad period and, accumulating losses, government will be worse-off. We studied a function for this accumulation of debt period by period, in order to get an idea of the magnitude of this waste of resources that economy will face when experiences a default. Our thesis is that bailouts just postpone the day of reckoning (Roch, Uhlig); so it's better to default before accumulate a lot of debts. What Europe need now is the introduction of new reforms in a controlled default where the Eurozone will be saved in its whole integrity and a state could fail with the future promise of a resurrection. As experience show us, governments are not interested into reducing debts since there are ECB interventions. That clearly create a distortion between countries in the same monetary union, giving to the states just an illusion about their future debtor position.

Implementazione di test di casualità in CrypTool

In questa tesi vengono introdotte le idee chiave della moderna crittografia, presentato il cifrario perfetto one-time pad e mostrate le criticità che l’utilizzo di tale schema presenta. L’idea di schemi di cifratura matematicamente sicuri deve essere superata a favore di schemi computazionalmente sicuri. A questo proposito diventa cruciale il concetto di pseudocasualità: come la sicurezza computazionale è un indebolimento della sicurezza perfetta, così la pseudocasualità è un indebolimento della pura casualità. E' quindi necessario avere dei metodi per definire la bontà di un generatore pseudocasuale di numeri. Il National Institute of Standars and Technology fornisce alcuni criteri per caratterizzare e scegliere generatori appropriati sulla base di test statistici. Alcuni di questi test sono stati implementati all’interno del portale di apprendimento CrypTool sviluppato da alcune Università e centri di ricerca di Germania e Austria.