Conditional entropy and predictability for non-reversible Markov systems

The purpose of this thesis is to clarify the role of non-equilibrium stationary currents of Markov processes in the context of the predictability of future states of the system. Once the connection between the predictability and the conditional entropy is established, we provide a comprehensive approach to the definition of a multi-particle Markov system. In particular, starting from the well-known theory of random walk on network, we derive the non-linear master equation for an interacting multi-particle system under the one-step process hypothesis, highlighting the limits of its tractability and the prop- erties of its stationary solution. Lastly, in order to study the impact of the NESS on the predictability at short times, we analyze the conditional entropy by modulating the intensity of the stationary currents, both for a single-particle and a multi-particle Markov system. The results obtained analytically are numerically tested on a 5-node cycle network and put in correspondence with the stationary entropy production. Furthermore, because of the low dimensionality of the single-particle system, an analysis of its spectral properties as a function of the modulated stationary currents is performed.

Dynamical models in neuroscience: the delay FitzHugh-Nagumo equation

Il primo modello matematico in grado di descrivere il prototipo di un sistema eccitabile assimilabile ad un neurone fu sviluppato da R. FitzHugh e J. Nagumo nel 1961. Tale modello, per quanto schematico, rappresenta un importante punto di partenza per la ricerca nell'ambito neuroscientifico delle dinamiche neuronali, ed è infatti capostipite di una serie di lavori che hanno puntato a migliorare l’accuratezza e la predicibilità dei modelli matematici per le scienze. L’elevato grado di complessità nello studio dei neuroni e delle dinamiche inter-neuronali comporta, tuttavia, che molte delle caratteristiche e delle potenzialità dell’ambito non siano ancora state comprese appieno. In questo lavoro verrà approfondito un modello ispirato al lavoro originale di FitzHugh e Nagumo. Tale modello presenta l’introduzione di un termine di self-coupling con ritardo temporale nel sistema di equazioni differenziali, diventa dunque rappresentativo di modelli di campo medio in grado di descrivere gli stati macroscopici di un ensemble di neuroni. L'introduzione del ritardo è funzionale ad una descrizione più realistica dei sistemi neuronali, e produce una dinamica più ricca e complessa rispetto a quella presente nella versione originale del modello. Sarà mostrata l'esistenza di una soluzione a ciclo limite nel modello che comprende il termine di ritardo temporale, ove tale soluzione non può essere interpretata nell’ambito delle biforcazioni di Hopf. Allo scopo di esplorare alcune delle caratteristiche basilari della modellizzazione del neurone, verrà principalmente utilizzata l’impostazione della teoria dei sistemi dinamici, integrando dove necessario con alcune nozioni provenienti dall’ambito fisiologico. In conclusione sarà riportata una sezione di approfondimento sulla integrazione numerica delle equazioni differenziali con ritardo.

The effects of hypocalcemia on spatial alternans and ventricular fibrillation studied with the optical mapping technique

The heart is a wonderful but complex organ: it uses electrochemical mechanisms in order to produce mechanical energy to pump the blood throughout the body and allow the life of humans and animals. This organ can be subject to several diseases and sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the most catastrophic manifestation of these diseases, responsible for the death of a large number of people throughout the world. It is estimated that 325000 Americans annually die for SCD. SCD most commonly occurs as a result of reentrant tachyarrhythmias (ventricular tachycardia (VT) and ventricular fibrillation (VF)) and the identification of those patients at higher risk for the development of SCD has been a difficult clinical challenge. Nowadays, a particular electrocardiogram (ECG) abnormality, “T-wave alternans” (TWA), is considered a precursor of lethal cardiac arrhythmias and sudden death, a sensitive indicator of risk for SCD. TWA is defined as a beat-to-beat alternation in the shape, amplitude, or timing of the T-wave on the ECG, indicative of the underlying repolarization of cardiac cells [5]. In other words TWA is the macroscopic effect of subcellular and celluar mechanisms involving ionic kinetics and the consequent depolarization and repolarization of the myocytes. Experimental activities have shown that TWA on the ECG is a manifestation of an underlying alternation of long and short action potential durations (APDs), the so called APD-alternans, of cardiac myocytes in the myocardium. Understanding the mechanism of APDs-alternans is the first step for preventing them to occur. In order to investigate these mechanisms it’s very important to understand that the biological systems are complex systems and their macroscopic properties arise from the nonlinear interactions among the parts. The whole is greater than the sum of the parts, and it cannot be understood only by studying the single parts. In this sense the heart is a complex nonlinear system and its way of working follows nonlinear dynamics; alternans also, they are a manifestation of a phenomenon typical in nonlinear dynamical systems, called “period-dubling bifurcation”. Over the past decade, it has been demonstrated that electrical alternans in cardiac tissue is an important marker for the development of ventricular fibrillation and a significant predictor for mortality. It has been observed that acute exposure to low concentration of calcium does not decrease the magnitude of alternans and sustained ventricular Fibrillation (VF) is still easily induced under these condition. However with prolonged exposure to low concentration of calcium, alternans disappears, but VF is still inducible. This work is based on this observation and tries to make it clearer. The aim of this thesis is investigate the effect of hypocalcemia spatial alternans and VF doing experiments with canine hearts and perfusing them with a solution with physiological ionic concentration and with a solution with low calcium concentration (hypocalcemia); in order to investigate the so called memory effect, the experimental activity was modified during the way. The experiments were performed with the optical mapping technique, using voltage-sensitive dye, and a custom made Java code was used in post-processing. Finding the Nolasco and Dahlen’s criterion [8] inadequate for the prediction of alternans, and takin into account the experimental results, another criterion, which consider the memory effect, has been implemented. The implementation of this criterion could be the first step in the creation of a method, AP-based, discriminating who is at risk if developing VF. This work is divided into four chapters: the first is a brief presentation of the physiology of the heart; the second is a review of the major theories and discovers in the study of cardiac dynamics; the third chapter presents an overview on the experimental activity and the optical mapping technique; the forth chapter contains the presentation of the results and the conclusions.

Stationary states in random walks on networks

In this thesis we dealt with the problem of describing a transportation network in which the objects in movement were subject to both finite transportation capacity and finite accomodation capacity. The movements across such a system are realistically of a simultaneous nature which poses some challenges when formulating a mathematical description. We tried to derive such a general modellization from one posed on a simplified problem based on asyncronicity in particle transitions. We did so considering one-step processes based on the assumption that the system could be describable through discrete time Markov processes with finite state space. After describing the pre-established dynamics in terms of master equations we determined stationary states for the considered processes. Numerical simulations then led to the conclusion that a general system naturally evolves toward a congestion state when its particle transition simultaneously and we consider one single constraint in the form of network node capacity. Moreover the congested nodes of a system tend to be located in adjacent spots in the network, thus forming local clusters of congested nodes.

Non linear response of planar asymmetric systems

The seismic behaviour of one-storey asymmetric structures has been studied since 1970s by a number of researches studies which identified the coupled nature of the translational-to-torsional response of those class of systems leading to severe displacement magnifications at the perimeter frames and therefore to significant increase of local peak seismic demand to the structural elements with respect to those of equivalent not-eccentric systems (Kan and Chopra 1987). These studies identified the fundamental parameters (such as the fundamental period TL normalized eccentricity e and the torsional-to-lateral frequency ratio Ωϑ) governing the torsional behavior of in-plan asymmetric structures and trends of behavior. It has been clearly recognized that asymmetric structures characterized by Ωϑ >1, referred to as torsionally-stiff systems, behave quite different form structures with Ωϑ <1, referred to as torsionally-flexible systems. Previous research works by some of the authors proposed a simple closed-form estimation of the maximum torsional response of one-storey elastic systems (Trombetti et al. 2005 and Palermo et al. 2010) leading to the so called “Alpha-method” for the evaluation of the displacement magnification factors at the corner sides. The present paper provides an upgrade of the “Alpha Method” removing the assumption of linear elastic response of the system. The main objective is to evaluate how the excursion of the structural elements in the inelastic field (due to the reaching of yield strength) affects the displacement demand of one-storey in-plan asymmetric structures. The system proposed by Chopra and Goel in 2007, which is claimed to be able to capture the main features of the non-linear response of in-plan asymmetric system, is used to perform a large parametric analysis varying all the fundamental parameters of the system, including the inelastic demand by varying the force reduction factor from 2 to 5. Magnification factors for different force reduction factor are proposed and comparisons with the results obtained from linear analysis are provided.

Distributed non-cooperative robust economic predictive control for dynamically coupled linear systems.

In this thesis, a tube-based Distributed Economic Predictive Control (DEPC) scheme is presented for a group of dynamically coupled linear subsystems. These subsystems are components of a large scale system and control inputs are computed based on optimizing a local economic objective. Each subsystem is interacting with its neighbors by sending its future reference trajectory, at each sampling time. It solves a local optimization problem in parallel, based on the received future reference trajectories of the other subsystems. To ensure recursive feasibility and a performance bound, each subsystem is constrained to not deviate too much from its communicated reference trajectory. This difference between the plan trajectory and the communicated one is interpreted as a disturbance on the local level. Then, to ensure the satisfaction of both state and input constraints, they are tightened by considering explicitly the effect of these local disturbances. The proposed approach averages over all possible disturbances, handles tightened state and input constraints, while satisfies the compatibility constraints to guarantee that the actual trajectory lies within a certain bound in the neighborhood of the reference one. Each subsystem is optimizing a local arbitrary economic objective function in parallel while considering a local terminal constraint to guarantee recursive feasibility. In this framework, economic performance guarantees for a tube-based distributed predictive control (DPC) scheme are developed rigorously. It is presented that the closed-loop nominal subsystem has a robust average performance bound locally which is no worse than that of a local robust steady state. Since a robust algorithm is applying on the states of the real (with disturbances) subsystems, this bound can be interpreted as an average performance result for the real closed-loop system. To this end, we present our outcomes on local and global performance, illustrated by a numerical example.

A novel approach to Non-Orthogonal Random Access with application to NB-IoT NTN systems

In the Massive IoT vision, millions of devices need to be connected to the Internet through a wireless access technology. However, current IoT-focused standards are not fully prepared for this future. In this thesis, a novel approach to Non-Orthogonal techniques for Random Access, which is the main bottleneck in high density systems, is proposed. First, the most popular wireless access standards are presented, with a focus on Narrowband-IoT. Then, the Random Access procedure as implemented in NB-IoT is analyzed. The Non-Orthogonal Random Access technique is presented next, along with two potential algorithms for the detection of non-orthogonal preambles. Finally, the performance of the proposed solutions are obtained through numerical simulations.