Multiphase flow in porous media: meta-modeling techniques for sensitivity analysis and risk assessment

One of the biggest challenges that contaminant hydrogeology is facing, is how to adequately address the uncertainty associated with model predictions. Uncertainty arise from multiple sources, such as: interpretative error, calibration accuracy, parameter sensitivity and variability. This critical issue needs to be properly addressed in order to support environmental decision-making processes. In this study, we perform Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) on a contaminant transport model for the assessment of hydrocarbon concentration in groundwater. We provide a quantification of the environmental impact and, given the incomplete knowledge of hydrogeological parameters, we evaluate which are the most influential, requiring greater accuracy in the calibration process. Parameters are treated as random variables and a variance-based GSA is performed in a optimized numerical Monte Carlo framework. The Sobol indices are adopted as sensitivity measures and they are computed by employing meta-models to characterize the migration process, while reducing the computational cost of the analysis. The proposed methodology allows us to: extend the number of Monte Carlo iterations, identify the influence of uncertain parameters and lead to considerable saving computational time obtaining an acceptable accuracy.

Risk assessment of liquid hydrogen tanks for heavy duty vehicles

The advent of the hydrogen economy has already been predicted but it does not represent a tangible reality yet. However, decarbonizing the global economy and particularly the energy sector is vital to limit global warming and reduce the incumbent environmental problems. Hydrogen is a promising zero-emission fuel that could replace traditional fossil fuels, playing a key role in the transition towards a more sustainable economy. At present, hydrogen-powered cars are already spread worldwide and the deployment of hydrogen buses seems to be the next goal in the decarbonization process of the transportation sector. In contrast with the undeniable benefits introduced by the use of this alternative fuel, given its hazardous properties, safety is a topic of high concern. The present study concerns the evaluation of the risks linked to the on board storage of hydrogen on hydrogen-powered buses in case of road accident. Currently, hydrogen can be stored on board as a high-pressure gas, as a cryogenic liquid or in cryo-compressed form. Those solutions are compared from a safety point of view. First, the final accidental scenarios that could follow the release of the fuel in case of a road crash are pointed out. Secondly, threshold values for the hazardous effects of each scenario are fixed and the corresponding damage distances are calculated thanks to the use of the software PHAST 8.4. Finally, indicators are quantified to compare the different options. Results are discussed to find out the safer solution and to evaluate whether the replacement of fossil fuels with hydrogen introduces new safety issues.

A framework for the environmental risk assessment of offshore carbon storage in CCS systems

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) represents an interesting climate mitigation option, however, as for any other human activity, there is the impelling need to assess and manage the associated risks. This study specifically addresses the marine environmental risk posed by CO2 leakages associated to CCS subsea engineering system, meant as offshore pipelines and injection / plugged and abandoned wells. The aim of this thesis work is to start approaching the development of a complete and standardized practical procedure to perform a quantified environmental risk assessment for CCS, with reference to the specific activities mentioned above. Such an effort would be of extreme relevance not only for companies willing to implement CCS, as a methodological guidance, but also, by uniformizing the ERA procedure, to begin changing people’s perception about CCS, that happens to be often discredited due to the evident lack of comprehensive and systematic methods to assess the impacts on the marine environment. The backbone structure of the framework developed consists on the integration of ERA’s main steps and those belonging to the quantified risk assessment (QRA), in the aim of quantitatively characterizing risk and describing it as a combination of magnitude of the consequences and their frequency. The framework developed by this work is, however, at a high level, as not every single aspect has been dealt with in the required detail. Thus, several alternative options are presented to be considered for use depending on the situation. Further specific studies should address their accuracy and efficiency and solve the knowledge gaps emerged, in order to establish and validate a final and complete procedure. Regardless of the knowledge gaps and uncertainties, that surely need to be addressed, this preliminary framework already finds some relevance in on field applications, as a non-stringent guidance to perform CCS ERA, and it constitutes the foundation of the final framework.

Industrial accidents triggered by lightning: causes and consequences

Natural hazards affecting industrial installations could directly or indirectly cause an accident or series of accidents with serious consequences for the environment and for human health. Accidents initiated by a natural hazard or disaster which result in the release of hazardous materials are commonly referred to as Natech (Natural Hazard Triggering a Technological Disaster) accidents. The conditions brought about by these kinds of events are particularly problematic, the presence of the natural event increases the probability of exposition and causes consequences more serious than standard technological accidents. Despite a growing body of research and more stringent regulations for the design and operation of industrial activities, Natech accidents remain a threat. This is partly due to the absence of data and dedicated risk-assessment methodologies and tools. Even the Seveso Directives for the control of risks due to major accident hazards do not include any specific impositions regarding the management of Natech risks in the process industries. Among the few available tools there is the European Standard EN 62305, which addresses generic industrial sites, requiring to take into account the possibility of lightning and to select the appropriate protection measures. Since it is intended for generic industrial installations, this tool set the requirements for the design, the construction and the modification of structures, and is thus mainly oriented towards conventional civil building. A first purpose of this project is to study the effects and the consequences on industrial sites of lightning, which is the most common adverse natural phenomenon in Europe. Lightning is the cause of several industrial accidents initiated by natural causes. The industrial sectors most susceptible to accidents triggered by lightning is the petrochemical one, due to the presence of atmospheric tanks (especially floating roof tanks) containing flammable vapors which could be easily ignited by a lightning strike or by lightning secondary effects (as electrostatic and electromagnetic pulses or ground currents). A second purpose of this work is to implement the procedure proposed by the European Standard on a specific kind of industrial plant, i.e. on a chemical factory, in order to highlight the critical aspects of this implementation. A case-study plant handling flammable liquids was selected. The application of the European Standard allowed to estimate the incidence of lightning activity on the total value of the default release frequency suggested by guidelines for atmospheric storage tanks. Though it has become evident that the European Standard does not introduce any parameters explicitly pointing out the amount of dangerous substances which could be ignited or released. Furthermore the parameters that are proposed to describe the characteristics of the structures potentially subjected to lightning strikes are insufficient to take into account the specific features of different chemical equipment commonly present in chemical plants.

A framework for risk analysis in automotive cybersecurity

We address the problem of automotive cybersecurity from the point of view of Threat Analysis and Risk Assessment (TARA). The central question that motivates the thesis is the one about the acceptability of risk, which is vital in taking a decision about the implementation of cybersecurity solutions. For this purpose, we develop a quantitative framework in which we take in input the results of risk assessment and define measures of various facets of a possible risk response; we then exploit the natural presence of trade-offs (cost versus effectiveness) to formulate the problem as a multi-objective optimization. Finally, we develop a stochastic model of the future evolution of the risk factors, by means of Markov chains; we adapt the formulations of the optimization problems to this non-deterministic context. The thesis is the result of a collaboration with the Vehicle Electrification division of Marelli, in particular with the Cybersecurity team based in Bologna; this allowed us to consider a particular instance of the problem, deriving from a real TARA, in order to test both the deterministic and the stochastic framework in a real world application. The collaboration also explains why in the work we often assume the point of view of a tier-1 supplier; however, the analyses performed can be adapted to any other level of the supply chain.