Stochastic physics and representation of El Niño Southern Oscillation in climate models

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) è il maggiore fenomeno climatico che avviene a livello dell’Oceano Pacifico tropicale e che ha influenze ambientali, climatiche e socioeconomiche a larga scala. In questa tesi si ripercorrono i passi principali che sono stati fatti per tentare di comprendere un fenomeno così complesso. Per prima cosa, si sono studiati i meccanismi che ne governano la dinamica, fino alla formulazione del modello matematico chiamato Delayed Oscillator (DO) model, proposto da Suarez e Schopf nel 1988. In seguito, per tenere conto della natura caotica del sistema studiato, si è introdotto nel modello lo schema chiamato Stochastically Perturbed Parameterisation Tendencies (SPPT). Infine, si sono portati due esempi di soluzione numerica del DO, sia con che senza l’introduzione della correzione apportata dallo schema SPPT, e si è visto in che misura SPPT porta reali miglioramenti al modello studiato.

The use of remote sensing imagery for monitoring recovery in the aftermath of a natural disaster: the Hurricane Katrina Case

Although Recovery is often defined as the less studied and documented phase of the Emergency Management Cycle, a wide literature is available for describing characteristics and sub-phases of this process. Previous works do not allow to gain an overall perspective because of a lack of systematic consistent monitoring of recovery utilizing advanced technologies such as remote sensing and GIS technologies. Taking into consideration the key role of Remote Sensing in Response and Damage Assessment, this thesis is aimed to verify the appropriateness of such advanced monitoring techniques to detect recovery advancements over time, with close attention to the main characteristics of the study event: Hurricane Katrina storm surge. Based on multi-source, multi-sensor and multi-temporal data, the post-Katrina recovery was analysed using both a qualitative and a quantitative approach. The first phase was dedicated to the investigation of the relation between urban types, damage and recovery state, referring to geographical and technological parameters. Damage and recovery scales were proposed to review critical observations on remarkable surge- induced effects on various typologies of structures, analyzed at a per-building level. This wide-ranging investigation allowed a new understanding of the distinctive features of the recovery process. A quantitative analysis was employed to develop methodological procedures suited to recognize and monitor distribution, timing and characteristics of recovery activities in the study area. Promising results, gained by applying supervised classification algorithms to detect localization and distribution of blue tarp, have proved that this methodology may help the analyst in the detection and monitoring of recovery activities in areas that have been affected by medium damage. The study found that Mahalanobis Distance was the classifier which provided the most accurate results, in localising blue roofs with 93.7% of blue roof classified correctly and a producer accuracy of 70%. It was seen to be the classifier least sensitive to spectral signature alteration. The application of the dissimilarity textural classification to satellite imagery has demonstrated the suitability of this technique for the detection of debris distribution and for the monitoring of demolition and reconstruction activities in the study area. Linking these geographically extensive techniques with expert per-building interpretation of advanced-technology ground surveys provides a multi-faceted view of the physical recovery process. Remote sensing and GIS technologies combined to advanced ground survey approach provides extremely valuable capability in Recovery activities monitoring and may constitute a technical basis to lead aid organization and local government in the Recovery management.

Calculation of the eigenfunctions of the two-group neutron diffusion equation and application to modal decomposition of BWR instabilities

In this thesis, numerical methods aiming at determining the eigenfunctions, their adjoint and the corresponding eigenvalues of the two-group neutron diffusion equations representing any heterogeneous system are investigated. First, the classical power iteration method is modified so that the calculation of modes higher than the fundamental mode is possible. Thereafter, the Explicitly-Restarted Arnoldi method, belonging to the class of Krylov subspace methods, is touched upon. Although the modified power iteration method is a computationally-expensive algorithm, its main advantage is its robustness, i.e. the method always converges to the desired eigenfunctions without any need from the user to set up any parameter in the algorithm. On the other hand, the Arnoldi method, which requires some parameters to be defined by the user, is a very efficient method for calculating eigenfunctions of large sparse system of equations with a minimum computational effort. These methods are thereafter used for off-line analysis of the stability of Boiling Water Reactors. Since several oscillation modes are usually excited (global and regional oscillations) when unstable conditions are encountered, the characterization of the stability of the reactor using for instance the Decay Ratio as a stability indicator might be difficult if the contribution from each of the modes are not separated from each other. Such a modal decomposition is applied to a stability test performed at the Swedish Ringhals-1 unit in September 2002, after the use of the Arnoldi method for pre-calculating the different eigenmodes of the neutron flux throughout the reactor. The modal decomposition clearly demonstrates the excitation of both the global and regional oscillations. Furthermore, such oscillations are found to be intermittent with a time-varying phase shift between the first and second azimuthal modes.