Probabilistic Envelope Curves for Extreme Rainfall Events - Curve Inviluppo Probabilistiche per Precipitazioni Estreme

A regional envelope curve (REC) of flood flows summarises the current bound on our experience of extreme floods in a region. RECs are available for most regions of the world. Recent scientific papers introduced a probabilistic interpretation of these curves and formulated an empirical estimator of the recurrence interval T associated with a REC, which, in principle, enables us to use RECs for design purposes in ungauged basins. The main aim of this work is twofold. First, it extends the REC concept to extreme rainstorm events by introducing the Depth-Duration Envelope Curves (DDEC), which are defined as the regional upper bound on all the record rainfall depths at present for various rainfall duration. Second, it adapts the probabilistic interpretation proposed for RECs to DDECs and it assesses the suitability of these curves for estimating the T-year rainfall event associated with a given duration and large T values. Probabilistic DDECs are complementary to regional frequency analysis of rainstorms and their utilization in combination with a suitable rainfall-runoff model can provide useful indications on the magnitude of extreme floods for gauged and ungauged basins. The study focuses on two different national datasets, the peak over threshold (POT) series of rainfall depths with duration 30 min., 1, 3, 9 and 24 hrs. obtained for 700 Austrian raingauges and the Annual Maximum Series (AMS) of rainfall depths with duration spanning from 5 min. to 24 hrs. collected at 220 raingauges located in northern-central Italy. The estimation of the recurrence interval of DDEC requires the quantification of the equivalent number of independent data which, in turn, is a function of the cross-correlation among sequences. While the quantification and modelling of intersite dependence is a straightforward task for AMS series, it may be cumbersome for POT series. This paper proposes a possible approach to address this problem.

A probabilistic approach to classify the levee reliability

This work aims to evaluate the reliability of these levee systems, calculating the probability of “failure” of determined levee stretches under different loads, using probabilistic methods that take into account the fragility curves obtained through the Monte Carlo Method. For this study overtopping and piping are considered as failure mechanisms (since these are the most frequent) and the major levee system of the Po River with a primary focus on the section between Piacenza and Cremona, in the lower-middle area of the Padana Plain, is analysed. The novelty of this approach is to check the reliability of individual embankment stretches, not just a single section, while taking into account the variability of the levee system geometry from one stretch to another. This work takes also into consideration, for each levee stretch analysed, a probability distribution of the load variables involved in the definition of the fragility curves, where it is influenced by the differences in the topography and morphology of the riverbed along the sectional depth analysed as it pertains to the levee system in its entirety. A type of classification is proposed, for both failure mechanisms, to give an indication of the reliability of the levee system based of the information obtained by the fragility curve analysis. To accomplish this work, an hydraulic model has been developed where a 500-year flood is modelled to determinate the residual hazard value of failure for each stretch of levee near the corresponding water depth, then comparing the results with the obtained classifications. This work has the additional the aim of acting as an interface between the world of Applied Geology and Environmental Hydraulic Engineering where a strong collaboration is needed between the two professions to resolve and improve the estimation of hydraulic risk.

Hydraulic evaluation of the gyro electric wave energy converter

Motivation Thanks for a scholarship offered by ALma Mater Studiorum I could stay in Denmark for six months during which I could do physical tests on the device Gyro PTO at the Departmet of Civil Engineering of Aalborg University. Aim The goal of my thesis is an hydraulic evaluation of the device: Gyro PTO, a gyroscopic device for conversion of mechanical energy in ocean surface waves to electrical energy. The principle of the system is the application of the gyroscopic moment of flywheels equipped on a swing float excited by waves. The laboratory activities were carried out by: Morten Kramer, Jan Olsen, Irene Guaraldi, Morten Thøtt, Nikolaj Holk. The main purpose of the tests was to investigate the power absorption performance in irregular waves, but testing also included performance measures in regular waves and simple tests to get knowledge about characteristics of the device, which could facilitate the possibility of performing numerical simulations and optimizations. Methodology To generate the waves and measure the performance of the device a workstation was created in the laboratory. The workstation consist of four computers in each of wich there was a different program. Programs have been used : Awasys6, LabView, Wave lab, Motive optitrack, Matlab, Autocad Main Results Thanks to the obtained data with the tank testing was possible to make the process of wave analisys. We obtained significant wave height and period through a script Matlab and then the values of power produced, and energy efficiency of the device for two types of waves: regular and irregular. We also got results as: physical size, weight, inertia moments, hydrostatics, eigen periods, mooring stiffness, friction, hydrodynamic coefficients etc. We obtained significant parameters related to the prototype in the laboratory after which we scale up the results obtained for two future applications: one in Nissun Brending and in the North Sea. Conclusions The main conclusion on the testing is that more focus should be put into ensuring a stable and positive power output in a variety of wave conditions. In the irregular waves the power production was negative and therefore it does not make sense to scale up the results directly. The average measured capture width in the regular waves was 0.21 m. As the device width is 0.63 m this corresponds to a capture width ratio of: 0.21/0.63 * 100 = 33 %. Let’s assume that it is possible to get the device to produce as well in irregular waves under any wave conditions, and lets further assume that the yearly absorbed energy can be converted into electricity at a PTO-efficiency of 90 %. Under all those assumptions the results in table are found, i.e. a Nissum Bredning would produce 0.87 MWh/year and a North Sea device 85 MWh/year.