Urban water demand model: the case study of Emilia Romagna (Italy)

Water is the driving force in nature. We use water for washing cars, doing laundry, cooking, taking a shower, but also to generate energy and electricity. Therefore water is a necessary product in our daily lives (USGS. Howard Perlman, 2013). The model that we created is based on the urban water demand computer model from the Pacific Institute (California). With this model we will forecast the future urban water use of Emilia Romagna up to the year of 2030. We will analyze the urban water demand in Emilia Romagna that includes the 9 provinces: Bologna, Ferrara, Forli-Cesena, Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Ravenna, Reggio Emilia and Rimini. The term urban water refers to the water used in cities and suburbs and in homes in the rural areas. This will include the residential, commercial, institutional and the industrial use. In this research, we will cover the water saving technologies that can help to save water for daily use. We will project what influence these technologies have to the urban water demand, and what it can mean for future urban water demands. The ongoing climate change can reduce the snowpack, and extreme floods or droughts in Italy. The changing climate and development patterns are expected to have a significant impact on water demand in the future. We will do this by conducting different scenario analyses, by combining different population projections, climate influence and water saving technologies. In addition, we will also conduct a sensitivity analyses. The several analyses will show us how future urban water demand is likely respond to changes in water conservation technologies, population, climate, water price and consumption. I hope the research can contribute to the insight of the reader’s thoughts and opinion.

Gene expression responses to acute and chronic heat stress in the common reef-building coral Pocillopora verrucosa

Global climate change is impacting coral reefs worldwide, with approximately 19% of reefs being permanently degraded, 15% showing symptoms of imminent collapse, and 20% at risk of becoming critically affected in the next few decades. This alarming level of reef degradation is mainly due to an increase in frequency and intensity of natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Recent evidence has called into question whether corals have the capacity to acclimatize or adapt to climate changes and some groups of corals showed inherent physiological tolerance to environmental stressors. The aim of the present study was to evaluate mRNA expression patterns underlying differences in thermal tolerance in specimen of the common reef-building coral Pocillopora verrucosa collected at different locations in Bangka Island waters (North Sulawesi, Indonesia). Part of the experimental work was carried out at the CoralEye Reef Research Outpost (Bangka Island). This includes sampling of corals at selected sites and at different depths (3 and 12 m) as well as their experimental exposure to an increased water temperature under controlled conditions for 3 and 7 days. Levels of mRNAs encoding ATP synthase (ATPs) NADH dehydrogenase (NDH) and a 70kDa Heat Shock Protein (HSP70) were evaluated by quantitative real time PCR. Transcriptional profiles evaluated under field conditions suggested an adaptation to peculiar local environmental conditions in corals collected at different sites and at the low depth. Nevertheless, high–depth collected corals showed a less pronounced site-to-site separation suggesting more homogenous environmental conditions. Exposure to an elevated temperature under controlled conditions pointed out that corals adapted to the high depth are more sensitive to the effects of thermal stress, so that reacted to thermal challenge by significantly over-expressing the selected gene products. Being continuously exposed to fluctuating environmental conditions, low-depth adapted corals are more resilient to the stress stimulus, and indeed showed unaffected or down-regulated mRNA expression profiles. Overall these results highlight that transcriptional profiles of selected genes involved in cellular stress response are modulated by natural seasonal temperature changes in P. verrucosa. Moreover, specimens living in more variable habitats (low-depth) exhibit higher basal HSP70 mRNA levels, possibly enhancing physiological tolerance to environmental stressors.

Observations and modeling of the Marginal Ice Zone

Global climate change in recent decades has strongly influenced the Arctic generating pronounced warming accompanied by significant reduction of sea ice in seasonally ice-covered seas and a dramatic increase of open water regions exposed to wind [Stephenson et al., 2011]. By strongly scattering the wave energy, thick multiyear ice prevents swell from penetrating deeply into the Arctic pack ice. However, with the recent changes affecting Arctic sea ice, waves gain more energy from the extended fetch and can therefore penetrate further into the pack ice. Arctic sea ice also appears weaker during melt season, extending the transition zone between thick multi-year ice and the open ocean. This region is called the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). In the Arctic, the MIZ is mainly encountered in the marginal seas, such as the Nordic Seas, the Barents Sea, the Beaufort Sea and the Labrador Sea. Formed by numerous blocks of sea ice of various diameters (floes) the MIZ, under certain conditions, allows maritime transportation stimulating dreams of industrial and touristic exploitation of these regions and possibly allowing, in the next future, a maritime connection between the Atlantic and the Pacific. With the increasing human presence in the Arctic, waves pose security and safety issues. As marginal seas are targeted for oil and gas exploitation, understanding and predicting ocean waves and their effects on sea ice become crucial for structure design and for real time safety of operations. The juxtaposition of waves and sea ice represents a risk for personnel and equipment deployed on ice, and may complicate critical operations such as platform evacuations. The risk is difficult to evaluate because there are no long-term observations of waves in ice, swell events are difficult to predict from local conditions, ice breakup can occur on very short time-scales and wave-ice interactions are beyond the scope of current forecasting models [Liu and Mollo-Christensen, 1988,Marko, 2003]. In this thesis, a newly developed Waves in Ice Model (WIM) [Williams et al., 2013a,Williams et al., 2013b] and its related Ocean and Sea Ice model (OSIM) will be used to study the MIZ and the improvements of wave modeling in ice infested waters. The following work has been conducted in collaboration with the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and within the SWARP project which aims to extend operational services supporting human activity in the Arctic by including forecast of waves in ice-covered seas, forecast of sea-ice in the presence of waves and remote sensing of both waves and sea ice conditions. The WIM will be included in the downstream forecasting services provided by Copernicus marine environment monitoring service.