Probabilistic Envelope Curves for Extreme Rainfall Events - Curve Inviluppo Probabilistiche per Precipitazioni Estreme

A regional envelope curve (REC) of flood flows summarises the current bound on our experience of extreme floods in a region. RECs are available for most regions of the world. Recent scientific papers introduced a probabilistic interpretation of these curves and formulated an empirical estimator of the recurrence interval T associated with a REC, which, in principle, enables us to use RECs for design purposes in ungauged basins. The main aim of this work is twofold. First, it extends the REC concept to extreme rainstorm events by introducing the Depth-Duration Envelope Curves (DDEC), which are defined as the regional upper bound on all the record rainfall depths at present for various rainfall duration. Second, it adapts the probabilistic interpretation proposed for RECs to DDECs and it assesses the suitability of these curves for estimating the T-year rainfall event associated with a given duration and large T values. Probabilistic DDECs are complementary to regional frequency analysis of rainstorms and their utilization in combination with a suitable rainfall-runoff model can provide useful indications on the magnitude of extreme floods for gauged and ungauged basins. The study focuses on two different national datasets, the peak over threshold (POT) series of rainfall depths with duration 30 min., 1, 3, 9 and 24 hrs. obtained for 700 Austrian raingauges and the Annual Maximum Series (AMS) of rainfall depths with duration spanning from 5 min. to 24 hrs. collected at 220 raingauges located in northern-central Italy. The estimation of the recurrence interval of DDEC requires the quantification of the equivalent number of independent data which, in turn, is a function of the cross-correlation among sequences. While the quantification and modelling of intersite dependence is a straightforward task for AMS series, it may be cumbersome for POT series. This paper proposes a possible approach to address this problem.

Planck stars: theory and phenomenology

General Relativity (GR) is one of the greatest scientific achievements of the 20th century along with quantum theory. Despite the elegance and the accordance with experimental tests, these two theories appear to be utterly incompatible at fundamental level. Black holes provide a perfect stage to point out these difficulties. Indeed, classical GR fails to describe Nature at small radii, because nothing prevents quantum mechanics from affecting the high curvature zone, and because classical GR becomes ill-defined at r = 0 anyway. Rovelli and Haggard have recently proposed a scenario where a negative quantum pressure at the Planck scales stops and reverts the gravitational collapse, leading to an effective “bounce” and explosion, thus resolving the central singularity. This scenario, called Black Hole Fireworks, has been proposed in a semiclassical framework. The purpose of this thesis is twofold: - Compute the bouncing time by means of a pure quantum computation based on Loop Quantum Gravity; - Extend the known theory to a more realistic scenario, in which the rotation is taken into account by means of the Newman-Janis Algorithm.

La popolazione di Blue Straggler Stars in due ammassi globulari della Grande Nube di Magellano

Le Blue Straggler Stars (BSS) sono la popolazione di oggetti esotici piu' comune e numerosa negli ammassi globulari. Nel diagramma colore-magnitudine le BSS definiscono una sequenza più brillante e blu del punto di turn-off della Sequenza Principale, simulando una popolazione più giovane delle stelle dell'ammasso.  Osservazioni hanno dimostrato che le BSS hanno una massa significativamente più grande (1.2-1.7 Msun) di quella delle stelle di un ammasso globulare. Per questa proprietà, la distribuzione radiale delle BSS e' un utile strumento per tracciare empiricamente lo stato di evoluzione dinamica degli ammassi stellari. Il lavoro di tesi si è concentrato sullo studio della popolazione di BSS di due ammassi globulari della Grande Nube di Magellano: NGC2257 e NGC1754. Applicando metodi di indagine già usati per sistemi stellari della Via Lattea, abbiamo derivato le eta' dinamiche di questi due sistemi e le abbiamo confrontate con stime teoriche.