Agent-based simulation for renewable energy incentive design

In this thesis, we propose a novel approach to model the diffusion of residential PV systems. For this purpose, we use an agent-based model where agents are the families living in the area of interest. The case study is the Emilia-Romagna Regional Energy plan, which aims to increase the produc- tion of electricity from renewable energy. So, we study the microdata from the Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) provided by Bank of Italy in order to obtain the characteristics of families living in Emilia-Romagna. These data have allowed us to artificial generate families and reproduce the socio-economic aspects of the region. The families generated by means of a software are placed on the virtual world by associating them with the buildings. These buildings are acquired by analysing the vector data of regional buildings made available by the region. Each year, the model determines the level of diffusion by simulating the installed capacity. The adoption behaviour is influenced by social interactions, household’s economic situation, the environmental benefits arising from the adoption and the payback period of the investment.

Modelling and simulating in systems biology: an approach based on multi-agent systems

Systems Biology is an innovative way of doing biology recently raised in bio-informatics contexts, characterised by the study of biological systems as complex systems with a strong focus on the system level and on the interaction dimension. In other words, the objective is to understand biological systems as a whole, putting on the foreground not only the study of the individual parts as standalone parts, but also of their interaction and of the global properties that emerge at the system level by means of the interaction among the parts. This thesis focuses on the adoption of multi-agent systems (MAS) as a suitable paradigm for Systems Biology, for developing models and simulation of complex biological systems. Multi-agent system have been recently introduced in informatics context as a suitabe paradigm for modelling and engineering complex systems. Roughly speaking, a MAS can be conceived as a set of autonomous and interacting entities, called agents, situated in some kind of nvironment, where they fruitfully interact and coordinate so as to obtain a coherent global system behaviour. The claim of this work is that the general properties of MAS make them an effective approach for modelling and building simulations of complex biological systems, following the methodological principles identified by Systems Biology. In particular, the thesis focuses on cell populations as biological systems. In order to support the claim, the thesis introduces and describes (i) a MAS-based model conceived for modelling the dynamics of systems of cells interacting inside cell environment called niches. (ii) a computational tool, developed for implementing the models and executing the simulations. The tool is meant to work as a kind of virtual laboratory, on top of which kinds of virtual experiments can be performed, characterised by the definition and execution of specific models implemented as MASs, so as to support the validation, falsification and improvement of the models through the observation and analysis of the simulations. A hematopoietic stem cell system is taken as reference case study for formulating a specific model and executing virtual experiments.

New markov chain based methods for single and cross-domain sentiment classification

Nowadays communication is switching from a centralized scenario, where communication media like newspapers, radio, TV programs produce information and people are just consumers, to a completely different decentralized scenario, where everyone is potentially an information producer through the use of social networks, blogs, forums that allow a real-time worldwide information exchange. These new instruments, as a result of their widespread diffusion, have started playing an important socio-economic role. They are the most used communication media and, as a consequence, they constitute the main source of information enterprises, political parties and other organizations can rely on. Analyzing data stored in servers all over the world is feasible by means of Text Mining techniques like Sentiment Analysis, which aims to extract opinions from huge amount of unstructured texts. This could lead to determine, for instance, the user satisfaction degree about products, services, politicians and so on. In this context, this dissertation presents new Document Sentiment Classification methods based on the mathematical theory of Markov Chains. All these approaches bank on a Markov Chain based model, which is language independent and whose killing features are simplicity and generality, which make it interesting with respect to previous sophisticated techniques. Every discussed technique has been tested in both Single-Domain and Cross-Domain Sentiment Classification areas, comparing performance with those of other two previous works. The performed analysis shows that some of the examined algorithms produce results comparable with the best methods in literature, with reference to both single-domain and cross-domain tasks, in $2$-classes (i.e. positive and negative) Document Sentiment Classification. However, there is still room for improvement, because this work also shows the way to walk in order to enhance performance, that is, a good novel feature selection process would be enough to outperform the state of the art. Furthermore, since some of the proposed approaches show promising results in $2$-classes Single-Domain Sentiment Classification, another future work will regard validating these results also in tasks with more than $2$ classes.

Near Real-Time Detection Of Pipe Bursts in Water Distribution Systems

The research work presented in the thesis describes a new methodology for the automated near real-time detection of pipe bursts in Water Distribution Systems (WDSs). The methodology analyses the pressure/flow data gathered by means of SCADA systems in order to extract useful informations that go beyond the simple and usual monitoring type activities and/or regulatory reporting , enabling the water company to proactively manage the WDSs sections. The work has an interdisciplinary nature covering AI techniques and WDSs management processes such as data collection, manipulation and analysis for event detection. Indeed, the methodology makes use of (i) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for the short-term forecasting of future pressure/flow signal values and (ii) Rule-based Model for bursts detection at sensor and district level. The results of applying the new methodology to a District Metered Area in Emilia- Romagna’s region, Italy have also been reported in the thesis. The results gathered illustrate how the methodology is capable to detect the aforementioned failure events in fast and reliable manner. The methodology guarantees the water companies to save water, energy, money and therefore enhance them to achieve higher levels of operational efficiency, a compliance with the current regulations and, last but not least, an improvement of customer service.

Feasibility study and flow scheduling optimization of a multi-product pipeline system

The first goal of this study is to analyse a real-world multiproduct onshore pipeline system in order to verify its hydraulic configuration and operational feasibility by constructing a simulation model step by step from its elementary building blocks that permits to copy the operation of the real system as precisely as possible. The second goal is to develop this simulation model into a user-friendly tool that one could use to find an “optimal” or “best” product batch schedule for a one year time period. Such a batch schedule could change dynamically as perturbations occur during operation that influence the behaviour of the entire system. The result of the simulation, the ‘best’ batch schedule is the one that minimizes the operational costs in the system. The costs involved in the simulation are inventory costs, interface costs, pumping costs, and penalty costs assigned to any unforeseen situations. The key factor to determine the performance of the simulation model is the way time is represented. In our model an event based discrete time representation is selected as most appropriate for our purposes. This means that the time horizon is divided into intervals of unequal lengths based on events that change the state of the system. These events are the arrival/departure of the tanker ships, the openings and closures of loading/unloading valves of storage tanks at both terminals, and the arrivals/departures of trains/trucks at the Delivery Terminal. In the feasibility study we analyse the system’s operational performance with different Head Terminal storage capacity configurations. For these alternative configurations we evaluated the effect of different tanker ship delay magnitudes on the number of critical events and product interfaces generated, on the duration of pipeline stoppages, the satisfaction of the product demand and on the operative costs. Based on the results and the bottlenecks identified, we propose modifications in the original setup.