From the traditional verification approach to the spatial methods: a study of applicability of the SAL metric in the framework of the WMO project MesoVICT

Increasing in resolution of numerical weather prediction models has allowed more and more realistic forecasts of atmospheric parameters. Due to the growing variability into predicted fields the traditional verification methods are not always able to describe the model ability because they are based on a grid-point-by-grid-point matching between observation and prediction. Recently, new spatial verification methods have been developed with the aim of show the benefit associated to the high resolution forecast. Nested in among of the MesoVICT international project, the initially aim of this work is to compare the newly tecniques remarking advantages and disadvantages. First of all, the MesoVICT basic examples, represented by synthetic precipitation fields, have been examined. Giving an error evaluation in terms of structure, amplitude and localization of the precipitation fields, the SAL method has been studied more thoroughly respect to the others approaches with its implementation in the core cases of the project. The verification procedure has concerned precipitation fields over central Europe: comparisons between the forecasts performed by the 00z COSMO-2 model and the VERA (Vienna Enhanced Resolution Analysis) have been done. The study of these cases has shown some weaknesses of the methodology examined; in particular has been highlighted the presence of a correlation between the optimal domain size and the extention of the precipitation systems. In order to increase ability of SAL, a subdivision of the original domain in three subdomains has been done and the method has been applied again. Some limits have been found in cases in which at least one of the two domains does not show precipitation. The overall results for the subdomains have been summarized on scatter plots. With the aim to identify systematic errors of the model the variability of the three parameters has been studied for each subdomain.

The atmospheric stable boundary layer: Data analysis and comparison with similarity theories

The objective of this dissertation is to study the structure and behavior of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) in stable conditions. This type of boundary layer is not completely well understood yet, although it is very important for many practical uses, from forecast modeling to atmospheric dispersion of pollutants. We analyzed data from the SABLES98 experiment (Stable Atmospheric Boundary Layer Experiment in Spain, 1998), and compared the behaviour of this data using Monin-Obukhov's similarity functions for wind speed and potential temperature. Analyzing the vertical profiles of various variables, in particular the thermal and momentum fluxes, we identified two main contrasting structures describing two different states of the SBL, a traditional and an upside-down boundary layer. We were able to determine the main features of these two states of the boundary layer in terms of vertical profiles of potential temperature and wind speed, turbulent kinetic energy and fluxes, studying the time series and vertical structure of the atmosphere for two separate nights in the dataset, taken as case studies. We also developed an original classification of the SBL, in order to separate the influence of mesoscale phenomena from turbulent behavior, using as parameters the wind speed and the gradient Richardson number. We then compared these two formulations, using the SABLES98 dataset, verifying their validity for different variables (wind speed and potential temperature, and their difference, at different heights) and with different stability parameters (zita or Rg). Despite these two classifications having completely different physical origins, we were able to find some common behavior, in particular under weak stability conditions.

Impact of irrigation in the Po valley (Italy) on meteorological parameters through numerical simulation

Recent studies found that soil-atmosphere coupling features, through soil moisture, have been crucial to simulate well heat waves amplitude, duration and intensity. Moreover, it was found that soil moisture depletion both in Winter and Spring anticipates strong heat waves during the Summer. Irrigation in geophysical studies can be intended as an anthropogenic forcing to the soil-moisture, besides changes in land proprieties. In this study, the irrigation was add to a LAM hydrostatic model (BOLAM) and coupled with the soil. The response of the model to irrigation perturbation is analyzed during a dry Summer season. To identify a dry Summer, with overall positive temperature anomalies, an extensive climatological characterization of 2015 was done. The method included a statistical validation on the reference period distribution used to calculate the anomalies. Drought conditions were observed during Summer 2015 and previous seasons, both on the analyzed region and the Alps. Moreover July was characterized as an extreme event for the referred distribution. The numerical simulation consisted on the summer season of 2015 and two run: a control run (CTR), with the soil coupling and a perturbed run (IPR). The perturbation consists on a mask of land use created from the Cropland FAO dataset, where an irrigation water flux of 3 mm/day was applied from 6 A.M. to 9 A.M. every day. The results show that differences between CTR and IPR has a strong daily cycle. The main modifications are on the air masses proprieties, not on to the dynamics. However, changes in the circulation at the boundaries of the Po Valley are observed, and a diagnostic spatial correlation of variable differences shows that soil moisture perturbation explains well the variation observed in the 2 meters height temperature and in the latent heat fluxes.On the other hand, does not explain the spatial shift up and downslope observed during different periods of the day. Given the results, irrigation process affects the atmospheric proprieties on a larger scale than the irrigation, therefore it is important in daily forecast, particularly during hot and dry periods.