6 resultados para Quantitative methodology

em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Universit


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L'obesità infantile può essere considerata una delle maggiori sfide sanitarie del XXI secolo. In Italia, la fascia d'età più colpita è quella tra i 6 e gli 11 anni. L'infanzia e l'adolescenza non solo influenzano lo sviluppo fisico, cognitivo e sociale dell'adulto, ma anche l'aspettativa di vita. Inoltre, l'interruzione dell'insegnamento in classe e le misure di contenimento di Covid-19 hanno aumentato il comfort food, la sedentarietà e la vulnerabilità socio-economica delle famiglie. Lo scopo del lavoro di ricerca è stato quello di studiare i fattori sociali che hanno influenzato le abitudini alimentari e gli stili di vita delle famiglie con bambini di età compresa tra i 6 e gli 11 anni, all'interno dell'ambiente di socializzazione primario (famiglia) e secondario (scuola e altre istituzioni) anche durante la pandemia di COVID-19. La ricerca è stata condotta in Emilia-Romagna nella città di Rimini e poi estesa al contesto europeo contemporaneo. Per indagare questo punto, è stata utilizzata una metodologia in parte qualitativa e in parte quantitativa. L'approccio mosaico composto da 15 interviste semi-strutturate; 8 focus group e 5 etnografie ha permesso di costruire un questionario, online e cartaceo, somministrato a 361 genitori. I principali risultati rivelano che (1) i bambini sono ingrassati durante il periodo di Covid; (2) esiste una correlazione tra il peso della madre e il peso del bambino; (3) le madri sottovalutano l'obesità dei figli.

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The increasing aversion to technological risks of the society requires the development of inherently safer and environmentally friendlier processes, besides assuring the economic competitiveness of the industrial activities. The different forms of impact (e.g. environmental, economic and societal) are frequently characterized by conflicting reduction strategies and must be holistically taken into account in order to identify the optimal solutions in process design. Though the literature reports an extensive discussion of strategies and specific principles, quantitative assessment tools are required to identify the marginal improvements in alternative design options, to allow the trade-off among contradictory aspects and to prevent the “risk shift”. In the present work a set of integrated quantitative tools for design assessment (i.e. design support system) was developed. The tools were specifically dedicated to the implementation of sustainability and inherent safety in process and plant design activities, with respect to chemical and industrial processes in which substances dangerous for humans and environment are used or stored. The tools were mainly devoted to the application in the stages of “conceptual” and “basic design”, when the project is still open to changes (due to the large number of degrees of freedom) which may comprise of strategies to improve sustainability and inherent safety. The set of developed tools includes different phases of the design activities, all through the lifecycle of a project (inventories, process flow diagrams, preliminary plant lay-out plans). The development of such tools gives a substantial contribution to fill the present gap in the availability of sound supports for implementing safety and sustainability in early phases of process design. The proposed decision support system was based on the development of a set of leading key performance indicators (KPIs), which ensure the assessment of economic, societal and environmental impacts of a process (i.e. sustainability profile). The KPIs were based on impact models (also complex), but are easy and swift in the practical application. Their full evaluation is possible also starting from the limited data available during early process design. Innovative reference criteria were developed to compare and aggregate the KPIs on the basis of the actual sitespecific impact burden and the sustainability policy. Particular attention was devoted to the development of reliable criteria and tools for the assessment of inherent safety in different stages of the project lifecycle. The assessment follows an innovative approach in the analysis of inherent safety, based on both the calculation of the expected consequences of potential accidents and the evaluation of the hazards related to equipment. The methodology overrides several problems present in the previous methods proposed for quantitative inherent safety assessment (use of arbitrary indexes, subjective judgement, build-in assumptions, etc.). A specific procedure was defined for the assessment of the hazards related to the formations of undesired substances in chemical systems undergoing “out of control” conditions. In the assessment of layout plans, “ad hoc” tools were developed to account for the hazard of domino escalations and the safety economics. The effectiveness and value of the tools were demonstrated by the application to a large number of case studies concerning different kinds of design activities (choice of materials, design of the process, of the plant, of the layout) and different types of processes/plants (chemical industry, storage facilities, waste disposal). An experimental survey (analysis of the thermal stability of isomers of nitrobenzaldehyde) provided the input data necessary to demonstrate the method for inherent safety assessment of materials.

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The so called cascading events, which lead to high-impact low-frequency scenarios are rising concern worldwide. A chain of events result in a major industrial accident with dreadful (and often unpredicted) consequences. Cascading events can be the result of the realization of an external threat, like a terrorist attack a natural disaster or of “domino effect”. During domino events the escalation of a primary accident is driven by the propagation of the primary event to nearby units, causing an overall increment of the accident severity and an increment of the risk associated to an industrial installation. Also natural disasters, like intense flooding, hurricanes, earthquake and lightning are found capable to enhance the risk of an industrial area, triggering loss of containment of hazardous materials and in major accidents. The scientific community usually refers to those accidents as “NaTechs”: natural events triggering industrial accidents. In this document, a state of the art of available approaches to the modelling, assessment, prevention and management of domino and NaTech events is described. On the other hand, the relevant work carried out during past studies still needs to be consolidated and completed, in order to be applicable in a real industrial framework. New methodologies, developed during my research activity, aimed at the quantitative assessment of domino and NaTech accidents are presented. The tools and methods provided within this very study had the aim to assist the progress toward a consolidated and universal methodology for the assessment and prevention of cascading events, contributing to enhance safety and sustainability of the chemical and process industry.

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Snow plays a crucial role in the Earth's hydrological cycle and energy budget, making its monitoring necessary. In this context, ground-based radars and in situ instruments are essential thanks to their spatial coverage, resolution, and temporal sampling. Deep understanding and reliable measurements of snow properties are crucial over Antarctica to assess potential future changes of the surface mass balance (SMB) and define the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet on sea-level rise. However, despite its key role, Antarctic precipitation is poorly investigated due to the continent's inaccessibility and extreme environment. In this framework, this Thesis aims to contribute to filling this gap by in-depth characterization of Antarctic precipitation at the Mario Zucchelli station from different points of view: microphysical features, quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE), vertical structure of precipitation, and scavenging properties. For this purpose, a K-band vertically pointing radar collocated with a laser disdrometer and an optical particle counter (OPC) were used. The radar probed the lowest atmospheric layers with high vertical resolution, allowing the first trusted measurement at only 105 m height. Disdrometer and OPC provided information on the particle size distribution and aerosol concentrations. An innovative snow classification methodology was designed by comparing the radar reflectivity (Ze) and disdrometer-derived reflectivity by means of DDA simulations. Results of classification were exploited in QPE through appropriate Ze-snow rate relationships. The accuracy of the resulting QPE was benchmarked against a collocated weighing gauge. Vertical radar profiles were also investigated to highlight hydrometeors' sublimation and growth processes. Finally, OPC and disdrometer data allowed providing the first-ever estimates of scavenging properties of Antarctic snowfall. Results presented in this Thesis give rise to advances in knowledge of the characteristics of snowfall in Antarctica, contributing to a better assessment of the SMB of the Antarctic ice sheet, the major player in the global sea-level rise.

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Amid the remarkable growth of innovative technologies, particularly immersive technologies like Extended Reality (XR) (comprising of Virtual Reality (VR), Augmented Reality (AR) & Mixed Reality (MR)), a transformation is unfolding in the way we collaborate and interact. The current research takes the initiative to explore XR’s potential for co-creation activities and proposes XR as a future co-creation platform. It strives to develop a XR-based co-creation system, actively engage stakeholders in the co-creation process, with the goal of enhancing their creative businesses. The research leverages XR tools to investigate how they can enhance digital co-creation methods and determine if the system facilitates efficient and effective value creation during XR-based co-creation sessions. In specific terms, the research probes into whether the XR-based co-creation method and environment enhances the quality and novelty of ideas, reduce communication challenges by providing better understanding of the product, problem or process and optimize the process in terms of reduction in time and costs. The research introduces a multi-user, multi-sensory collaborative and interactive XR platform that adapts to various use-case scenarios. This thesis also presents the user testing performed to collect both qualitative and quantitative data, which serves to substantiate the hypothesis. What sets this XR system apart is its incorporation of fully functional prototypes into a mixed reality environment, providing users with a unique dimension within an immersive digital landscape. The outcomes derived from the experimental studies demonstrate that XR-based co-creation surpasses conventional desktop co-creation methods and remarkably, the results are even comparable to a full mock-up test. In conclusion, the research underscores that the utilization of XR as a tool for co-creation generates substantial value. It serves as a method that enhances the process, an environment that fosters interaction and collaboration, and a platform that equips stakeholders with the means to engage effectively.

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Natural events are a widely recognized hazard for industrial sites where relevant quantities of hazardous substances are handled, due to the possible generation of cascading events resulting in severe technological accidents (Natech scenarios). Natural events may damage storage and process equipment containing hazardous substances, that may be released leading to major accident scenarios called Natech events. The need to assess the risk associated with Natech scenarios is growing and methodologies were developed to allow the quantification of Natech risk, considering both point sources and linear sources as pipelines. A key element of these procedures is the use of vulnerability models providing an estimation of the damage probability of equipment or pipeline segment as a result of the impact of the natural event. Therefore, the first aim of the PhD project was to outline the state of the art of vulnerability models for equipment and pipelines subject to natural events such as floods, earthquakes, and wind. Moreover, the present PhD project also aimed at the development of new vulnerability models in order to fill some gaps in literature. In particular, a vulnerability model for vertical equipment subject to wind and to flood were developed. Finally, in order to improve the calculation of Natech risk for linear sources an original methodology was developed for Natech quantitative risk assessment methodology for pipelines subject to earthquakes. Overall, the results obtained are a step forward in the quantitative risk assessment of Natech accidents. The tools developed open the way to the inclusion of new equipment in the analysis of Natech events, and the methodology for the assessment of linear risk sources as pipelines provides an important tool for a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of Natech risk.