On the effect of confounding in linear regression models: an approach based on the theory of quadratic forms

The main topic of this thesis is confounding in linear regression models. It arises when a relationship between an observed process, the covariate, and an outcome process, the response, is influenced by an unmeasured process, the confounder, associated with both. Consequently, the estimators for the regression coefficients of the measured covariates might be severely biased, less efficient and characterized by misleading interpretations. Confounding is an issue when the primary target of the work is the estimation of the regression parameters. The central point of the dissertation is the evaluation of the sampling properties of parameter estimators. This work aims to extend the spatial confounding framework to general structured settings and to understand the behaviour of confounding as a function of the data generating process structure parameters in several scenarios focusing on the joint covariate-confounder structure. In line with the spatial statistics literature, our purpose is to quantify the sampling properties of the regression coefficient estimators and, in turn, to identify the most prominent quantities depending on the generative mechanism impacting confounding. Once the sampling properties of the estimator conditionally on the covariate process are derived as ratios of dependent quadratic forms in Gaussian random variables, we provide an analytic expression of the marginal sampling properties of the estimator using Carlson’s R function. Additionally, we propose a representative quantity for the magnitude of confounding as a proxy of the bias, its first-order Laplace approximation. To conclude, we work under several frameworks considering spatial and temporal data with specific assumptions regarding the covariance and cross-covariance functions used to generate the processes involved. This study allows us to claim that the variability of the confounder-covariate interaction and of the covariate plays the most relevant role in determining the principal marker of the magnitude of confounding.

Permutation classes, sorting algorithms, and lattice paths

A permutation is said to avoid a pattern if it does not contain any subsequence which is order-isomorphic to it. Donald Knuth, in the first volume of his celebrated book "The art of Computer Programming", observed that the permutations that can be computed (or, equivalently, sorted) by some particular data structures can be characterized in terms of pattern avoidance. In more recent years, the topic was reopened several times, while often in terms of sortable permutations rather than computable ones. The idea to sort permutations by using one of Knuth’s devices suggests to look for a deterministic procedure that decides, in linear time, if there exists a sequence of operations which is able to convert a given permutation into the identical one. In this thesis we show that, for the stack and the restricted deques, there exists an unique way to implement such a procedure. Moreover, we use these sorting procedures to create new sorting algorithms, and we prove some unexpected commutation properties between these procedures and the base step of bubblesort. We also show that the permutations that can be sorted by a combination of the base steps of bubblesort and its dual can be expressed, once again, in terms of pattern avoidance. In the final chapter we give an alternative proof of some enumerative results, in particular for the classes of permutations that can be sorted by the two restricted deques. It is well-known that the permutations that can be sorted through a restricted deque are counted by the Schrӧder numbers. In the thesis, we show how the deterministic sorting procedures yield a bijection between sortable permutations and Schrӧder paths.

Assessing brain connectivity through electroencephalographic signal processing and modeling analysis

Brain functioning relies on the interaction of several neural populations connected through complex connectivity networks, enabling the transmission and integration of information. Recent advances in neuroimaging techniques, such as electroencephalography (EEG), have deepened our understanding of the reciprocal roles played by brain regions during cognitive processes. The underlying idea of this PhD research is that EEG-related functional connectivity (FC) changes in the brain may incorporate important neuromarkers of behavior and cognition, as well as brain disorders, even at subclinical levels. However, a complete understanding of the reliability of the wide range of existing connectivity estimation techniques is still lacking. The first part of this work addresses this limitation by employing Neural Mass Models (NMMs), which simulate EEG activity and offer a unique tool to study interconnected networks of brain regions in controlled conditions. NMMs were employed to test FC estimators like Transfer Entropy and Granger Causality in linear and nonlinear conditions. Results revealed that connectivity estimates reflect information transmission between brain regions, a quantity that can be significantly different from the connectivity strength, and that Granger causality outperforms the other estimators. A second objective of this thesis was to assess brain connectivity and network changes on EEG data reconstructed at the cortical level. Functional brain connectivity has been estimated through Granger Causality, in both temporal and spectral domains, with the following goals: a) detect task-dependent functional connectivity network changes, focusing on internal-external attention competition and fear conditioning and reversal; b) identify resting-state network alterations in a subclinical population with high autistic traits. Connectivity-based neuromarkers, compared to the canonical EEG analysis, can provide deeper insights into brain mechanisms and may drive future diagnostic methods and therapeutic interventions. However, further methodological studies are required to fully understand the accuracy and information captured by FC estimates, especially concerning nonlinear phenomena.

Bayesian Analysis of Linear Inverse Problems with Applications in Economics and Finance

In my PhD thesis I propose a Bayesian nonparametric estimation method for structural econometric models where the functional parameter of interest describes the economic agent's behavior. The structural parameter is characterized as the solution of a functional equation, or by using more technical words, as the solution of an inverse problem that can be either ill-posed or well-posed. From a Bayesian point of view, the parameter of interest is a random function and the solution to the inference problem is the posterior distribution of this parameter. A regular version of the posterior distribution in functional spaces is characterized. However, the infinite dimension of the considered spaces causes a problem of non continuity of the solution and then a problem of inconsistency, from a frequentist point of view, of the posterior distribution (i.e. problem of ill-posedness). The contribution of this essay is to propose new methods to deal with this problem of ill-posedness. The first one consists in adopting a Tikhonov regularization scheme in the construction of the posterior distribution so that I end up with a new object that I call regularized posterior distribution and that I guess it is solution of the inverse problem. The second approach consists in specifying a prior distribution on the parameter of interest of the g-prior type. Then, I detect a class of models for which the prior distribution is able to correct for the ill-posedness also in infinite dimensional problems. I study asymptotic properties of these proposed solutions and I prove that, under some regularity condition satisfied by the true value of the parameter of interest, they are consistent in a "frequentist" sense. Once I have set the general theory, I apply my bayesian nonparametric methodology to different estimation problems. First, I apply this estimator to deconvolution and to hazard rate, density and regression estimation. Then, I consider the estimation of an Instrumental Regression that is useful in micro-econometrics when we have to deal with problems of endogeneity. Finally, I develop an application in finance: I get the bayesian estimator for the equilibrium asset pricing functional by using the Euler equation defined in the Lucas'(1978) tree-type models.

Non-Linear Pricing in Imperfectly Competitive Markets

This thesis is dedicated to the analysis of non-linear pricing in oligopoly. Non-linear pricing is a fairly predominant practice in most real markets, mostly characterized by some amount of competition. The sophistication of pricing practices has increased in the latest decades due to the technological advances that have allowed companies to gather more and more data on consumers preferences. The first essay of the thesis highlights the main characteristics of oligopolistic non-linear pricing. Non-linear pricing is a special case of price discrimination. The theory of price discrimination has to be modified in presence of oligopoly: in particular, a crucial role is played by the competitive externality that implies that product differentiation is closely related to the possibility of discriminating. The essay reviews the theory of competitive non-linear pricing by starting from its foundations, mechanism design under common agency. The different approaches to model non-linear pricing are then reviewed. In particular, the difference between price and quantity competition is highlighted. Finally, the close link between non-linear pricing and the recent developments in the theory of vertical differentiation is explored. The second essay shows how the effects of non-linear pricing are determined by the relationship between the demand and the technological structure of the market. The chapter focuses on a model in which firms supply a homogeneous product in two different sizes. Information about consumers' reservation prices is incomplete and the production technology is characterized by size economies. The model provides insights on the size of the products that one finds in the market. Four equilibrium regions are identified depending on the relative intensity of size economies with respect to consumers' evaluation of the good. Regions for which the product is supplied in a single unit or in several different sizes or in only a very large one. Both the private and social desirability of non-linear pricing varies across different equilibrium regions. The third essay considers the broadband internet market. Non discriminatory issues seem the core of the recent debate on the opportunity or not of regulating the internet. One of the main questions posed is whether the telecom companies, owning the networks constituting the internet, should be allowed to offer quality-contingent contracts to content providers. The aim of this essay is to analyze the issue through a stylized two-sided market model of the web that highlights the effects of such a discrimination over quality, prices and participation to the internet of providers and final users. An overall welfare comparison is proposed, concluding that the final effects of regulation crucially depend on both the technology and preferences of agents.

Quantum Integrability in Non-Linear Sigma Models related to Gauge/String Correspondences

The Thermodynamic Bethe Ansatz analysis is carried out for the extended-CP^N class of integrable 2-dimensional Non-Linear Sigma Models related to the low energy limit of the AdS_4xCP^3 type IIA superstring theory. The principal aim of this program is to obtain further non-perturbative consistency check to the S-matrix proposed to describe the scattering processes between the fundamental excitations of the theory by analyzing the structure of the Renormalization Group flow. As a noteworthy byproduct we eventually obtain a novel class of TBA models which fits in the known classification but with several important differences. The TBA framework allows the evaluation of some exact quantities related to the conformal UV limit of the model: effective central charge, conformal dimension of the perturbing operator and field content of the underlying CFT. The knowledge of this physical quantities has led to the possibility of conjecturing a perturbed CFT realization of the integrable models in terms of coset Kac-Moody CFT. The set of numerical tools and programs developed ad hoc to solve the problem at hand is also discussed in some detail with references to the code.

Diffusive models and chaos indicators for non-linear betatron motion in circular hadron accelerators

Understanding the complex dynamics of beam-halo formation and evolution in circular particle accelerators is crucial for the design of current and future rings, particularly those utilizing superconducting magnets such as the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC), its luminosity upgrade HL-LHC, and the proposed Future Circular Hadron Collider (FCC-hh). A recent diffusive framework, which describes the evolution of the beam distribution by means of a Fokker-Planck equation, with diffusion coefficient derived from the Nekhoroshev theorem, has been proposed to describe the long-term behaviour of beam dynamics and particle losses. In this thesis, we discuss the theoretical foundations of this framework, and propose the implementation of an original measurement protocol based on collimator scans in view of measuring the Nekhoroshev-like diffusive coefficient by means of beam loss data. The available LHC collimator scan data, unfortunately collected without the proposed measurement protocol, have been successfully analysed using the proposed framework. This approach is also applied to datasets from detailed measurements of the impact on the beam losses of so-called long-range beam-beam compensators also at the LHC. Furthermore, dynamic indicators have been studied as a tool for exploring the phase-space properties of realistic accelerator lattices in single-particle tracking simulations. By first examining the classification performance of known and new indicators in detecting the chaotic character of initial conditions for a modulated Hénon map and then applying this knowledge to study the properties of realistic accelerator lattices, we tried to identify a connection between the presence of chaotic regions in the phase space and Nekhoroshev-like diffusive behaviour, providing new tools to the accelerator physics community.

From images to signs: Cretan Hieroglyphic and Linear A in context

This dissertation adopts a multidisciplinary approach to investigate graphical and formal features of Cretan Hieroglyphic and Linear A. Drawing on theories which understand inscribed artefacts as an interplay of materials, iconography, and texts, I combine archaeological and philological considerations with statistical and experimental observations. The work is formulated on three key-questions. The first deals with the origins of Cretan Hieroglyphic. After providing a fresh view on Prepalatial seals chronology, I identify a number of forerunners of Hieroglyphic signs in iconographic motifs attested among the Prepalatial glyptic and material culture. I further identified a specific style-group, i.e., the ‘Border and Leaf Complex’, as the decisive step towards the emergence of the Hieroglyphic graphic repertoire. The second deals with the interweaving of formal, iconographical, and epigraphic features of Hieroglyphic seals with the sequences they bear and the contexts of their usage. By means of two Correspondence Analyses, I showed that the iconography on seals in some materials and shapes is closer to Cretan Hieroglyphics, than that on the other ones. Through two Social Network Analyses, I showed that Hieroglyphic impressions, especially at Knossos, follow a precise sealing pattern due to their shapes and sequences. Furthermore, prisms with a high number of inscribed faces adhere to formal features of jasper ones. Finally, through experimental engravings, I showed differences in cutting rates among materials, as well as the efficiency of abrasives and tools unearthed within the Quartier Mu. The third question concerns overlaps in chronology, findspots and signaries between Cretan Hieroglyphic and Linear A. I discussed all possible earliest instances of both scripts and argued for some items datable to the MM I-IIA period. I further provide an insight into the Hieroglyphic-Linear A dubitanda and criteria for their interpretation. Finally, I suggest four different patterns in the creation and diversification of the two signaries.

Data driven regularization models of non-linear ill-posed inverse problems in imaging

Imaging technologies are widely used in application fields such as natural sciences, engineering, medicine, and life sciences. A broad class of imaging problems reduces to solve ill-posed inverse problems (IPs). Traditional strategies to solve these ill-posed IPs rely on variational regularization methods, which are based on minimization of suitable energies, and make use of knowledge about the image formation model (forward operator) and prior knowledge on the solution, but lack in incorporating knowledge directly from data. On the other hand, the more recent learned approaches can easily learn the intricate statistics of images depending on a large set of data, but do not have a systematic method for incorporating prior knowledge about the image formation model. The main purpose of this thesis is to discuss data-driven image reconstruction methods which combine the benefits of these two different reconstruction strategies for the solution of highly nonlinear ill-posed inverse problems. Mathematical formulation and numerical approaches for image IPs, including linear as well as strongly nonlinear problems are described. More specifically we address the Electrical impedance Tomography (EIT) reconstruction problem by unrolling the regularized Gauss-Newton method and integrating the regularization learned by a data-adaptive neural network. Furthermore we investigate the solution of non-linear ill-posed IPs introducing a deep-PnP framework that integrates the graph convolutional denoiser into the proximal Gauss-Newton method with a practical application to the EIT, a recently introduced promising imaging technique. Efficient algorithms are then applied to the solution of the limited electrods problem in EIT, combining compressive sensing techniques and deep learning strategies. Finally, a transformer-based neural network architecture is adapted to restore the noisy solution of the Computed Tomography problem recovered using the filtered back-projection method.

In-car sound linear simulation

In recent years, vehicle acoustics have gained significant importance in new car development: increasingly advanced infotainment systems for spatial audio and sound enhancement algorithms have become the norm in modern vehicles. In the past, car manufacturers had to build numerous prototypes to study the sound behaviour inside the car cabin or the effect of new algorithms under development. Nowadays, advanced simulation techniques can reduce development costs and time. In this work, after selecting the reference test vehicle, a modern luxury sedan equipped with a high-end sound system, two independent tools were developed: a simulation tool created in the Comsol Multiphysics environment and an auralization tool developed in the Cycling ‘74 MAX environment. The simulation tool can calculate the impulse response and acoustic spectrum at a specific position inside the cockpit. Its input data are the vehicle’s geometry, acoustic absorption parameters of materials, the acoustic characteristics and position of loudspeakers, and the type and position of virtual microphones (or microphone arrays). The simulation tool can also provide binaural impulse responses thanks to Head Related Transfer Functions (HRTFs) and an innovative algorithm able to compute the HRTF at any distance and angle from the head. Impulse responses from simulations or acoustic measurements inside the car cabin are processed and fed into the auralization tool, enabling real-time interaction by applying filters, changing the channels gain or displaying the acoustic spectrum. Since the acoustic simulation of a vehicle involves multiple topics, the focus of this work has not only been the development of two tools but also the study and application of new techniques for acoustic characterization of the materials that compose the cockpit and the loudspeaker simulation. Specifically, three different methods have been applied for material characterization through the use of a pressure-velocity probe, a Laser Doppler Vibrometer (LDV), and a microphone array.