Bio-physical interactions and feedbacks in a global climate model

This PhD thesis addresses the topic of large-scale interactions between climate and marine biogeochemistry. To this end, centennial simulations are performed under present and projected future climate conditions with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model containing a complex marine biogeochemistry model. The role of marine biogeochemistry in the climate system is first investigated. Phytoplankton solar radiation absorption in the upper ocean enhances sea surface temperatures and upper ocean stratification. The associated increase in ocean latent heat losses raises atmospheric temperatures and water vapor. Atmospheric circulation is modified at tropical and extratropical latitudes with impacts on precipitation, incoming solar radiation, and ocean circulation which cause upper-ocean heat content to decrease at tropical latitudes and to increase at middle latitudes. Marine biogeochemistry is tightly related to physical climate variability, which may vary in response to internal natural dynamics or to external forcing such as anthropogenic carbon emissions. Wind changes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of climate variability in the North Atlantic, affect ocean properties by means of momentum, heat, and freshwater fluxes. Changes in upper ocean temperature and mixing impact the spatial structure and seasonality of North Atlantic phytoplankton through light and nutrient limitations. These changes affect the capability of the North Atlantic Ocean of absorbing atmospheric CO2 and of fixing it inside sinking particulate organic matter. Low-frequency NAO phases determine a delayed response of ocean circulation, temperature and salinity, which in turn affects stratification and marine biogeochemistry. In 20th and 21st century simulations natural wind fluctuations in the North Pacific, related to the two dominant modes of atmospheric variability, affect the spatial structure and the magnitude of the phytoplankton spring bloom through changes in upper-ocean temperature and mixing. The impacts of human-induced emissions in the 21st century are generally larger than natural climate fluctuations, with the phytoplankton spring bloom starting one month earlier than in the 20th century and with ~50% lower magnitude. This PhD thesis advances the knowledge of bio-physical interactions within the global climate, highlighting the intrinsic coupling between physical climate and biosphere, and providing a framework on which future studies of Earth System change can be built on.

Exploiting spectrally resolved satellite observations to assess the performance of climate models

The accurate representation of the Earth Radiation Budget by General Circulation Models (GCMs) is a fundamental requirement to provide reliable historical and future climate simulations. In this study, we found reasonable agreement between the integrated energy fluxes at the top of the atmosphere simulated by 34 state-of-the-art climate models and the observations provided by the Cloud and Earth Radiant Energy System (CERES) mission on a global scale, but large regional biases have been detected throughout the globe. Furthermore, we highlighted that a good agreement between simulated and observed integrated Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) fluxes may be obtained from the cancellation of opposite-in-sign systematic errors, localized in different spectral ranges. To avoid this and to understand the causes of these biases, we compared the observed Earth emission spectra, measured by the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) in the period 2008-2016, with the synthetic radiances computed on the basis of the atmospheric fields provided by the EC-Earth GCM. To this purpose, the fast σ-IASI radiative transfer model was used, after its validation and implementation in EC-Earth. From the comparison between observed and simulated spectral radiances, a positive temperature bias in the stratosphere and a negative temperature bias in the middle troposphere, as well as a dry bias of the water vapor concentration in the upper troposphere, have been identified in the EC-Earth climate model. The analysis has been performed in clear-sky conditions, but the feasibility of its extension in the presence of clouds, whose impact on the radiation represents the greatest source of uncertainty in climate models, has also been proven. Finally, the analysis of simulated and observed OLR trends indicated good agreement and provided detailed information on the spectral fingerprints of the evolution of the main climate variables.

Advanced representation of the ocean/sea ice dynamics at high latitudes

Sea ice is a fundamental element of global climate system, with numerous impacts on the polar environment. The ongoing drastic changes in the Earth’s sea ice cover highlight the necessity of monitoring the polar regions and systematically evaluating the quality of different numerical products. The main objective of this thesis is to improve our knowledge of the representation of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice using comprehensive global ocean reanalyses and coupled climate models. The dissertation will explore (i) the Antarctic marginal ice zone (MIZ) and pack ice area in the ensemble mean of four global ocean reanalyses called GREP; (ii) historical representation of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice state in HighResMIP models; (iii) the future evolution of Arctic sea ice in HighResMIP models. Global ocean reanalyses and GREP are found to adequately capture interannual and seasonal variability in both pack ice and MIZ areas at hemispheric and regional scales. The advantage of the ensemble-mean approach is proved as GREP smooths the strengths and weaknesses of single systems and provides the most consistent and reliable estimates. This work is intended to encourage the use of GREP in a wide range of applications. The analysis of sea ice representation in the coupled climate models shows no systematic impact of the increased horizontal resolution. We argue that a few minor improvements in sea ice representation with the enhanced horizontal resolution are presumably not worth the major effort of costly computations. The thesis highlights the critical importance to distinguish the MIZ from consolidated pack ice both for investigating changes in sea ice distribution and evaluating the product’s performance. Considering that the MIZ is predicted to dominate the Arctic sea ice cover, the model physics parameterizations and sea ice rheology might require modifications. The results of the work can be useful for modelling community.

Severe Accident Simulation of Small Modular Reactors

Since the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2), accident in 1979 which led to the meltdown of about one half of the reactor core and to limited releases of radioactive materials to the environment, an important international effort has been made on severe accident research. The present work aims to investigate the behaviour of a Small Modular Reactor during severe accident conditions. In order to perform these analyses, a SMR has been studied for the European reference severe accident analysis code ASTEC, developed by IRSN and GRS. In the thesis will be described in detail the IRIS Small Modular Reactor; the reference reactor chosen to develop the ASTEC input deck. The IRIS model was developed in the framework of a research collaboration with the IRSN development team. In the thesis will be described systematically the creation of the ASTEC IRIS input deck: the nodalization scheme adopted, the solution used to simulate the passive safety systems and the strong interaction between the reactor vessel and the containment. The ASTEC SMR model will be tested against the RELAP-GOTHIC coupled code model, with respect to a Design Basis Accident, to evaluate the capability of the ASTEC code on reproducing correctly the behaviour of the nuclear system. Once the model has been validated, a severe accident scenario will be simulated and the obtained results along with the nuclear system response will be analysed.

Climate impact studies of sediment transport on the Adriatic coastal zone

The study of the impact of climate change on the environment has been based, until very recently, on an global approach, whose interest from a local point of view is very limited. This thesis, on the contrary, has treated the study of the impact of climate change in the Adriatic Sea basin following a twofold strategy of regionalization and integration of numerical models in order to reproduce the present and future scenarios of the system through a more and more realistic and solid approach. In particular the focus of the study was on the impact on the physical environment and on the sediment transport in the basin. This latter is a very new and original issue, to our knowledge still uninvestigated. The study case of the coastal area of Montenegro was particularly studied, since it is characterized by an important supply of sediment through the Buna/Bojana river, second most important in the Adriatic basin in terms of flow. To do this, a methodology to introduce the tidal processes in a baroclinic primitive equations Ocean General Circulation Model was applied and tidal processes were successfully reproduced in the Adriatic Sea, analyzing also the impacts they have on the mean general circulation, on salt and heat transport and on mixing and stratification of the water column in the different seasons of the year. The new hydrodynamical model has been further coupled with a wave model and with a river and sea sediment transport model, showing good results in the reproduction of sediment transport processes. Finally this complex coupled platform was integrated in the period 2001-2030 under the A1B scenario of IPCC, and the impact of climate change on the physical system and on sediment transport was preliminarily evaluated.

Improvement of photon transport model by including coupled photon-electron transport and kernel refinement

The first part of this work deals with the inverse problem solution in the X-ray spectroscopy field. An original strategy to solve the inverse problem by using the maximum entropy principle is illustrated. It is built the code UMESTRAT, to apply the described strategy in a semiautomatic way. The application of UMESTRAT is shown with a computational example. The second part of this work deals with the improvement of the X-ray Boltzmann model, by studying two radiative interactions neglected in the current photon models. Firstly it is studied the characteristic line emission due to Compton ionization. It is developed a strategy that allows the evaluation of this contribution for the shells K, L and M of all elements with Z from 11 to 92. It is evaluated the single shell Compton/photoelectric ratio as a function of the primary photon energy. It is derived the energy values at which the Compton interaction becomes the prevailing process to produce ionization for the considered shells. Finally it is introduced a new kernel for the XRF from Compton ionization. In a second place it is characterized the bremsstrahlung radiative contribution due the secondary electrons. The bremsstrahlung radiation is characterized in terms of space, angle and energy, for all elements whit Z=1-92 in the energy range 1–150 keV by using the Monte Carlo code PENELOPE. It is demonstrated that bremsstrahlung radiative contribution can be well approximated with an isotropic point photon source. It is created a data library comprising the energetic distributions of bremsstrahlung. It is developed a new bremsstrahlung kernel which allows the introduction of this contribution in the modified Boltzmann equation. An example of application to the simulation of a synchrotron experiment is shown.

Access to climate justice: the main procedural hurdles, and possible solutions, within the italian legal framework and the IBA Model Statute

The thesis deals with standing and justiciability in climate litigation against governments and the private sector. The first part addresses the impacts of climate change on human rights, the major developments in international climate law, and the historical reasons for climate litigation. The second part analyses several cases, divided into categories. It then draws to a comparative conclusion with regard to each category. The third part deals with the Italian legal tradition on standing and justiciability – starting from the historical roots of such rules. The fourth part introduces the ‘Model Statute’ drafted by the International Bar Association, arguing that the 'ratio legis' of this proposal could be implemented in Italy or the EU. The thesis develops arguments, based on the existing legal framework, to help plaintiffs establish standing and justiciability in proceedings pending before Italian courts. It further proposes the idea that 'citizen suits' are consistent with the Italian and EU legal tradition and that the EU could rely on citizen suits to privately enforce its climate law and policies under the ‘European Green Deal.’