Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.

Foetal heart rate recording: analysis and comparison of different methodologies

Monitoring foetal health is a very important task in clinical practice to appropriately plan pregnancy management and delivery. In the third trimester of pregnancy, ultrasound cardiotocography is the most employed diagnostic technique: foetal heart rate and uterine contractions signals are simultaneously recorded and analysed in order to ascertain foetal health. Because ultrasound cardiotocography interpretation still lacks of complete reliability, new parameters and methods of interpretation, or alternative methodologies, are necessary to further support physicians’ decisions. To this aim, in this thesis, foetal phonocardiography and electrocardiography are considered as different techniques. Further, variability of foetal heart rate is thoroughly studied. Frequency components and their modifications can be analysed by applying a time-frequency approach, for a distinct understanding of the spectral components and their change over time related to foetal reactions to internal and external stimuli (such as uterine contractions). Such modifications of the power spectrum can be a sign of autonomic nervous system reactions and therefore represent additional, objective information about foetal reactivity and health. However, some limits of ultrasonic cardiotocography still remain, such as in long-term foetal surveillance, which is often recommendable mainly in risky pregnancies. In these cases, the fully non-invasive acoustic recording, foetal phonocardiography, through maternal abdomen, represents a valuable alternative to the ultrasonic cardiotocography. Unfortunately, the so recorded foetal heart sound signal is heavily loaded by noise, thus the determination of the foetal heart rate raises serious signal processing issues. A new algorithm for foetal heart rate estimation from foetal phonocardiographic recordings is presented in this thesis. Different filtering and enhancement techniques, to enhance the first foetal heart sounds, were applied, so that different signal processing techniques were implemented, evaluated and compared, by identifying the strategy characterized on average by the best results. In particular, phonocardiographic signals were recorded simultaneously to ultrasonic cardiotocographic signals in order to compare the two foetal heart rate series (the one estimated by the developed algorithm and the other provided by cardiotocographic device). The algorithm performances were tested on phonocardiographic signals recorded on pregnant women, showing reliable foetal heart rate signals, very close to the ultrasound cardiotocographic recordings, considered as reference. The algorithm was also tested by using a foetal phonocardiographic recording simulator developed and presented in this research thesis. The target was to provide a software for simulating recordings relative to different foetal conditions and recordings situations and to use it as a test tool for comparing and assessing different foetal heart rate extraction algorithms. Since there are few studies about foetal heart sounds time characteristics and frequency content and the available literature is poor and not rigorous in this area, a data collection pilot study was also conducted with the purpose of specifically characterising both foetal and maternal heart sounds. Finally, in this thesis, the use of foetal phonocardiographic and electrocardiographic methodology and their combination, are presented in order to detect foetal heart rate and other functioning anomalies. The developed methodologies, suitable for longer-term assessment, were able to detect heart beat events correctly, such as first and second heart sounds and QRS waves. The detection of such events provides reliable measures of foetal heart rate, potentially information about measurement of the systolic time intervals and foetus circulatory impedance.

Vedere e rivedere il non osservabile. Analisi storica e questioni concettuali aperte nel rapporto tra Cinematografia e Scienza

La ricerca è incentrata sul rapporto tra cinema e scienza e sul ruolo della cinematografia come strumento di ricerca scientifica: si articola in due parti storicamente distinte, ma al tempo stesso strettamente correlate da una riflessione critica sul ruolo delle immagini in movimento rispetto al tema comune a entrambe della visualizzazione e rappresentazione del non osservabile nella realtà fisica.

Percorsi urbani e percorsi narrativi: il "racconto dei racconti" di via Zamboni a Bologna

La percezione dello spazio urbano, nella sua complessità, risente inevitabilmente dello stratificarsi, nel tempo, di significati storici, ideologie, archetipi e utopie attraverso i quali la società, nei suoi diversi stadi di sviluppo, ha consolidato l'idea di centro abitato. Nel mondo contemporaneo, la città narrata si sovrappone sempre di più a quella reale, organizzando e sintetizzando i processi interpretativi dei circuiti urbani: al cityscape, il panorama fisico della città, si antepone il suo mindscape, il panorama dell'anima e delle culture urbane. In sintonia con tali prospettive, la presente ricerca si propone di analizzare i processi comunicativi e i paradigmi mediatici che attraversano e ridefiniscono le dinamiche urbane, prendendo in esame gli strumenti e i linguaggi che concorrono a disegnare e raccontare l'immagine di una città. In tale contesto, il progetto prende in considerazione come case study la singolare situazione del distretto universitario intorno a via Zamboni a Bologna: un'arteria di straordinaria bellezza e vitalità, cui tuttavia non corrisponde un'immagine pubblica altrettanto positiva. La tesi ha analizzato in particolare l’immagine pubblica e la percezione di via Zamboni e di piazza Verdi dai primi del Novecento a oggi, in relazione ai principali eventi che le hanno viste come scenari privilegiati. Prendendo in considerazione un arco di tempo di oltre un secolo, sono stati selezionati alcuni momenti topici, occasioni culturali o accadimenti con una forte connotazione simbolica: dalla Liberazione alle manifestazioni del ’77, dalle storiche ‘prime’ del Teatro Comunale agli allestimenti della Pinacoteca, dalle lezioni di professori universitari di chiara fama alle più recenti contestazioni studentesche. Il risultato è un racconto stratificato che attraversa segni e immagini per ricostruire l’iconografia del quartiere attraverso testi, fotografie, filmati, opere d’arte o prodotti multimediali.

Non-Markovian stochastic processes and their applications: from anomalous diffusion to time series analysis

This work provides a forward step in the study and comprehension of the relationships between stochastic processes and a certain class of integral-partial differential equation, which can be used in order to model anomalous diffusion and transport in statistical physics. In the first part, we brought the reader through the fundamental notions of probability and stochastic processes, stochastic integration and stochastic differential equations as well. In particular, within the study of H-sssi processes, we focused on fractional Brownian motion (fBm) and its discrete-time increment process, the fractional Gaussian noise (fGn), which provide examples of non-Markovian Gaussian processes. The fGn, together with stationary FARIMA processes, is widely used in the modeling and estimation of long-memory, or long-range dependence (LRD). Time series manifesting long-range dependence, are often observed in nature especially in physics, meteorology, climatology, but also in hydrology, geophysics, economy and many others. We deepely studied LRD, giving many real data examples, providing statistical analysis and introducing parametric methods of estimation. Then, we introduced the theory of fractional integrals and derivatives, which indeed turns out to be very appropriate for studying and modeling systems with long-memory properties. After having introduced the basics concepts, we provided many examples and applications. For instance, we investigated the relaxation equation with distributed order time-fractional derivatives, which describes models characterized by a strong memory component and can be used to model relaxation in complex systems, which deviates from the classical exponential Debye pattern. Then, we focused in the study of generalizations of the standard diffusion equation, by passing through the preliminary study of the fractional forward drift equation. Such generalizations have been obtained by using fractional integrals and derivatives of distributed orders. In order to find a connection between the anomalous diffusion described by these equations and the long-range dependence, we introduced and studied the generalized grey Brownian motion (ggBm), which is actually a parametric class of H-sssi processes, which have indeed marginal probability density function evolving in time according to a partial integro-differential equation of fractional type. The ggBm is of course Non-Markovian. All around the work, we have remarked many times that, starting from a master equation of a probability density function f(x,t), it is always possible to define an equivalence class of stochastic processes with the same marginal density function f(x,t). All these processes provide suitable stochastic models for the starting equation. Studying the ggBm, we just focused on a subclass made up of processes with stationary increments. The ggBm has been defined canonically in the so called grey noise space. However, we have been able to provide a characterization notwithstanding the underline probability space. We also pointed out that that the generalized grey Brownian motion is a direct generalization of a Gaussian process and in particular it generalizes Brownain motion and fractional Brownain motion as well. Finally, we introduced and analyzed a more general class of diffusion type equations related to certain non-Markovian stochastic processes. We started from the forward drift equation, which have been made non-local in time by the introduction of a suitable chosen memory kernel K(t). The resulting non-Markovian equation has been interpreted in a natural way as the evolution equation of the marginal density function of a random time process l(t). We then consider the subordinated process Y(t)=X(l(t)) where X(t) is a Markovian diffusion. The corresponding time-evolution of the marginal density function of Y(t) is governed by a non-Markovian Fokker-Planck equation which involves the same memory kernel K(t). We developed several applications and derived the exact solutions. Moreover, we considered different stochastic models for the given equations, providing path simulations.

Metodi biochimici e biomolecolari applicati alla medicina clinica: rendimento della real-time TaqMan PCR per la valutazione della resistenza alla claritromicina in H.pylori e tests fecali nella diagnorstica del carcinoma colo-rettale: M2PK, calprotectina e FOBT

1) Background: The most common methods to evaluate clarithromycin resistance is the E-Test, but is time consuming. Resistance of Hp to clarithromycin is due to point mutations in the 23S rRNA. Eight different point mutations have been related to CH resistance, but the large majority of the clarithromycin resistance depends on three point mutations (A2142C, A2142G and A2143G). A novel PCR-based clarithromycin resistance assays, even on paraffin-embedded biopsy specimens, have been proposed. Aims: to assess clarithromycin resistance detecting these point mutation (E-Test as a reference method);secondly, to investigate relation with MIC values. Methods: Paraffin-embedded biopsies of patients Hp-positive were retrieved. The A2142C, A2142G and A2143G point mutations were detected by molecular analysis after DNA extraction by using a TaqMan real-time PCR. Results: The study enrolled 86 patients: 46 resistant and 40 sensible to CH. The Hp status was evaluated at endoscopy, by rapid urease test (RUT), histology and hp culture. According to real-time PCR, 37 specimens were susceptible to clarithromycin (wild type dna) whilst the remaining 49 specimens (57%) were resistant. A2143G is the most frequent mutation. A2142C always express a resistant phenotype and A2142G leads to a resitant phenotype only if homozigous. 2) Background: Colonoscopy work-load for endoscopy services is increasing due to colorectal cancer prevention. We tested a combination of faecal tests to improve accuracy and prioritize the access to colonoscopy. Methods: we tested a combination of fecal tests (FOBT, M2-PK and calprotectin) in a group of 280 patients requiring colonoscopy. Results: 47 patients had CRC and 85 had advanced adenoma/s at colonoscopy/histology. In case of single test, for CRC detection FOBT was the test with the highest specificity and PPV, M2-PK had the highest sensitivity and higher NPV. Combination was more interesting in term of PPV. And the best combination of tests was i-FOBT + M2-PK.

The spatial representation of time

Numerosi studi mostrano che gli intervalli temporali sono rappresentati attraverso un codice spaziale che si estende da sinistra verso destra, dove gli intervalli brevi sono rappresentati a sinistra rispetto a quelli lunghi. Inoltre tale disposizione spaziale del tempo può essere influenzata dalla manipolazione dell’attenzione-spaziale. La presente tesi si inserisce nel dibattito attuale sulla relazione tra rappresentazione spaziale del tempo e attenzione-spaziale attraverso l’uso di una tecnica che modula l’attenzione-spaziale, ovvero, l’Adattamento Prismatico (AP). La prima parte è dedicata ai meccanismi sottostanti tale relazione. Abbiamo mostrato che spostando l’attenzione-spaziale con AP, verso un lato dello spazio, si ottiene una distorsione della rappresentazione di intervalli temporali, in accordo con il lato dello spostamento attenzionale. Questo avviene sia con stimoli visivi, sia con stimoli uditivi, nonostante la modalità uditiva non sia direttamente coinvolta nella procedura visuo-motoria di AP. Questo risultato ci ha suggerito che il codice spaziale utilizzato per rappresentare il tempo, è un meccanismo centrale che viene influenzato ad alti livelli della cognizione spaziale. La tesi prosegue con l’indagine delle aree corticali che mediano l’interazione spazio-tempo, attraverso metodi neuropsicologici, neurofisiologici e di neuroimmagine. In particolare abbiamo evidenziato che, le aree localizzate nell’emisfero destro, sono cruciali per l’elaborazione del tempo, mentre le aree localizzate nell’emisfero sinistro sono cruciali ai fini della procedura di AP e affinché AP abbia effetto sugli intervalli temporali. Infine, la tesi, è dedicata allo studio dei disturbi della rappresentazione spaziale del tempo. I risultati ci indicano che un deficit di attenzione-spaziale, dopo danno emisferico destro, provoca un deficit di rappresentazione spaziale del tempo, che si riflette negativamente sulla vita quotidiana dei pazienti. Particolarmente interessanti sono i risultati ottenuti mediante AP. Un trattamento con AP, efficace nel ridurre il deficit di attenzione-spaziale, riduce anche il deficit di rappresentazione spaziale del tempo, migliorando la qualità di vita dei pazienti.

Early Warning For Large Earthquakes: Observations, Models and Real-Time Data Analysis

This thesis is a collection of works focused on the topic of Earthquake Early Warning, with a special attention to large magnitude events. The topic is addressed from different points of view and the structure of the thesis reflects the variety of the aspects which have been analyzed. The first part is dedicated to the giant, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The main features of the rupture process are first discussed. The earthquake is then used as a case study to test the feasibility Early Warning methodologies for very large events. Limitations of the standard approaches for large events arise in this chapter. The difficulties are related to the real-time magnitude estimate from the first few seconds of recorded signal. An evolutionary strategy for the real-time magnitude estimate is proposed and applied to the single Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In the second part of the thesis a larger number of earthquakes is analyzed, including small, moderate and large events. Starting from the measurement of two Early Warning parameters, the behavior of small and large earthquakes in the initial portion of recorded signals is investigated. The aim is to understand whether small and large earthquakes can be distinguished from the initial stage of their rupture process. A physical model and a plausible interpretation to justify the observations are proposed. The third part of the thesis is focused on practical, real-time approaches for the rapid identification of the potentially damaged zone during a seismic event. Two different approaches for the rapid prediction of the damage area are proposed and tested. The first one is a threshold-based method which uses traditional seismic data. Then an innovative approach using continuous, GPS data is explored. Both strategies improve the prediction of large scale effects of strong earthquakes.

Black Hole and Galaxy Growth over Cosmic Time: the Chandra COSMOS Legacy Survey

The study of supermassive black hole (SMBH) accretion during their phase of activity (hence becoming active galactic nuclei, AGN), and its relation to the host-galaxy growth, requires large datasets of AGN, including a significant fraction of obscured sources. X-ray data are strategic in AGN selection, because at X-ray energies the contamination from non-active galaxies is far less significant than in optical/infrared surveys, and the selection of obscured AGN, including also a fraction of heavily obscured AGN, is much more effective. In this thesis, I present the results of the Chandra COSMOS Legacy survey, a 4.6 Ms X-ray survey covering the equatorial COSMOS area. The COSMOS Legacy depth (flux limit f=2x10^(-16) erg/s/cm^(-2) in the 0.5-2 keV band) is significantly better than that of other X-ray surveys on similar area, and represents the path for surveys with future facilities, like Athena and X-ray Surveyor. The final Chandra COSMOS Legacy catalog contains 4016 point-like sources, 97% of which with redshift. 65% of the sources are optically obscured and potentially caught in the phase of main BH growth. We used the sample of 174 Chandra COSMOS Legacy at z>3 to place constraints on the BH formation scenario. We found a significant disagreement between our space density and the predictions of a physical model of AGN activation through major-merger. This suggests that in our luminosity range the BH triggering through secular accretion is likely preferred to a major-merger triggering scenario. Thanks to its large statistics, the Chandra COSMOS Legacy dataset, combined with the other multiwavelength COSMOS catalogs, will be used to answer questions related to a large number of astrophysical topics, with particular focus on the SMBH accretion in different luminosity and redshift regimes.