Epidemiologia delle strongilosi dell'asino: quali applicazioni per il controllo delle infezioni da elminti?

Strongylosis in equids, despite being very common, have never been studied from a strictly ecological point of view. Mathematical models are important ecological tools used to study the temporal dynamics of parasite populations, and are useful to study the effect of different biological parameters, as well as to analyse the outcome produced by perturbations such as anthelmintic treatments. This work describes the study of the temporal dynamics of strongyles infection in an organic donkey population, performed using coprological quantitative analysis and donkeys’ age as a proxy of the time of infection. Force of infection was then estimated for Strongylus vulgaris and small strongyles and the results used as the basis for the development of mathematical models. In particular, the comparison of models output and field data made it possible to estimate the transmission coefficient  and to consequently calculate the basic reproduction number R0 and the threshold host density. Small strongyles model includes hypobiosis and, more interestingly as never found in literature, a density-dependent development rate of hypobiotic larvae in adult parasites in order to simulate a negative feedback between larvae emergence from hypobiosis and adult parasite abundance. Simulations of pharmacological and environmental treatments showed that parasite eradication was possible for S. vulgaris only, while small strongyles, due to hypobiosis and density-dependent development rate of their hypobiotic larvae, are very difficult to control and impossible to eradicate. In addition, density-dependence in larval development has been demonstrated to act as a key factor in improving parasite population survival and abundance even in absence of human intervention.

A threshold hypothesis of institutional change: collective action in the Italian Alps during the 13th - 19th centuries.

This dissertation is about collective action issues in common property resources. Its focus is the “threshold hypothesis,” which posits the existence of a threshold in group size that drives the process of institutional change. This hypothesis is tested using a six-century dataset concerning the management of the commons by hundreds of communities in the Italian Alps. The analysis seeks to determine the group size threshold and the institutional changes that occur when groups cross this threshold. There are five main findings. First, the number of individuals in villages remained stable for six centuries, despite the population in the region tripling in the same period. Second, the longitudinal analysis of face-to-face assemblies and community size led to the empirical identification of a threshold size that triggered the transition from informal to more formal regimes to manage common property resources. Third, when groups increased in size, gradual organizational changes took place: large groups split into independent subgroups or structured interactions into multiple layers while maintaining a single formal organization. Fourth, resource heterogeneity seemed to have had no significant impact on various institutional characteristics. Fifth, social heterogeneity showed statistically significant impacts, especially on institutional complexity, consensus, and the relative importance of governance rules versus resource management rules. Overall, the empirical evidence from this research supports the “threshold hypothesis.” These findings shed light on the rationale of institutional change in common property regimes, and clarify the mechanisms of collective action in traditional societies. Further research may generalize these conclusions to other domains of collective action and to present-day applications.

Non-standard signatures from Cosmic Microwave Background polarisation

In this Thesis we focus on non-standard signatures from CMB polarisation, which might hint at the existence of new phenomena beyond the standard models for Cosmology and Particle physics. With the Planck ESA mission, CMB temperature anisotropies have been observed at the cosmic variance limit, but polarisation remains to be further investigated. CMB polarisation data are important not only because they contribute to provide tighter constraints of cosmological parameters but also because they allow the investigation of physical processes that would be precluded if just the CMB temperature maps were considered. We take polarisation data into account to assess the statistical significance of the anomalies currently observed only in the CMB temperature map and to constrain the Cosmic Birefringence (CB) effect, which is expected in parity-violating extensions of the standard electromagnetism. In particular, we propose a new one-dimensional estimator for the lack of power anomaly capable of taking both temperature and polarisation into account jointly. With the aim of studying the anisotropic CB we develop and perform two different and complementary methods able to evaluate the power spectrum of the CB. Finally, by employing these estimators and methodologies on Planck data we provide new constraints beyond what already known in literature. The measure of CMB polarisation represents a technological challenge and to make accurate estimates, one has to keep an exquisite control of the systematic effects. In order to investigate the impact of spurious signal in forthcoming CMB polarisation experiments, we study the interplay between half-wave plates (HWP) non-idealities and the beams. Our analysis suggests that certain HWP configurations, depending on the complexity of Galactic foregrounds and the beam models, significantly impacts the B-mode reconstruction fidelity and could limit the capabilities of next-generation CMB experiments. We provide also a first study of the impact of non-ideal HWPs on CB.

SPHERA, a new Italian convection-permitting regional reanalysis: improving heavy-rainfall representation and describing hail-prone environments

Extreme weather events related to deep convection are high-impact critical phenomena whose reliable numerical simulation is still challenging. High-resolution (convection-permitting) modeling setups allow to switch off physical parameterizations accountable for substantial errors in convection representation. A new convection-permitting reanalysis over Italy (SPHERA) has been produced at ARPAE to enhance the representation and understanding of extreme weather situations. SPHERA is obtained through a dynamical downscaling of the global reanalysis ERA5 using the non-hydrostatic model COSMO at 2.2 km grid spacing over 1995-2020. This thesis aims to verify the expectations placed on SPHERA by analyzing two weather phenomena that are particularly challenging to simulate: heavy rainfall and hail. A quantitative statistical analysis over Italy during 2003-2017 for daily and hourly precipitation is presented to compare the performance of SPHERA with its driver ERA5 considering the national network of rain gauges as reference. Furthermore, two extreme precipitation events are deeply investigated. SPHERA shows a quantitative added skill over ERA5 for moderate to severe and rapid accumulations in terms of adherence to the observations, higher detailing of the spatial fields, and more precise temporal matching. These results prompted the use of SPHERA for the investigation of hailstorms, for which the combination of multiple information is crucial to reduce the substantial uncertainties permeating their understanding. A proxy for hail is developed by combining hail-favoring environmental numerical predictors with observations of ESWD hail reports and satellite overshooting top detections. The procedure is applied to the extended summer season (April-October) of 2016-2018 over the whole SPHERA spatial domain. The results indicate maximum hail likelihood over pre-Alpine regions and the northern Adriatic sea around 15 UTC in June-July, in agreement with recent European hail climatologies. The method demonstrates enhanced performance in case of severe hail occurrences and the ability to separate between ambient signatures depending on hail severity.