Studio di fenomeni d'instabilità gravitativa sui fondali marini, con particolare riferimento all'isola di Stromboli

In the last decade the interest for submarine instability grew up, driven by the increasing exploitation of natural resources (primary hydrocarbons), the emplacement of bottom-lying structures (cables and pipelines) and by the development of coastal areas, whose infrastructures increasingly protrude to the sea. The great interest for this topic promoted a number of international projects such as: STEAM (Sediment Transport on European Atlantic Margins, 93-96), ENAM II (European North Atlantic Margin, 96-99), GITEC (Genesis and Impact of Tsunamis on the European Coast 92-95), STRATAFORM (STRATA FORmation on Margins, 95-01), Seabed Slope Process in Deep Water Continental Margin (Northwest Gulf of Mexico, 96-04), COSTA (Continental slope Stability, 00-05), EUROMARGINS (Slope Stability on Europe’s Passive Continental Margin), SPACOMA (04-07), EUROSTRATAFORM (European Margin Strata Formation), NGI's internal project SIP-8 (Offshore Geohazards), IGCP-511: Submarine Mass Movements and Their Consequences (05-09) and projects indirectly related to instability processes, such as TRANSFER (Tsunami Risk ANd Strategies For the European region, 06-09) or NEAREST (integrated observations from NEAR shore sourcES of Tsunamis: towards an early warning system, 06-09). In Italy, apart from a national project realized within the activities of the National Group of Volcanology during the framework 2000-2003 “Conoscenza delle parti sommerse dei vulcani italiani e valutazione del potenziale rischio vulcanico”, the study of submarine mass-movement has been underestimated until the occurrence of the landslide-tsunami events that affected Stromboli on December 30, 2002. This event made the Italian Institutions and the scientific community more aware of the hazard related to submarine landslides, mainly in light of the growing anthropization of coastal sectors, that increases the vulnerability of these areas to the consequences of such processes. In this regard, two important national projects have been recently funded in order to study coastal instabilities (PRIN 24, 06-08) and to map the main submarine hazard features on continental shelves and upper slopes around the most part of Italian coast (MaGIC Project). The study realized in this Thesis is addressed to the understanding of these processes, with particular reference to Stromboli submerged flanks. These latter represent a natural laboratory in this regard, as several kind of instability phenomena are present on the submerged flanks, affecting about 90% of the entire submerged areal and often (strongly) influencing the morphological evolution of subaerial slopes, as witnessed by the event occurred on 30 December 2002. Furthermore, each phenomenon is characterized by different pre-failure, failure and post-failure mechanisms, ranging from rock-falls, to turbidity currents up to catastrophic sector collapses. The Thesis is divided into three introductive chapters, regarding a brief review of submarine instability phenomena and related hazard (cap. 1), a “bird’s-eye” view on methodologies and available dataset (cap. 2) and a short introduction on the evolution and the morpho-structural setting of the Stromboli edifice (cap. 3). This latter seems to play a major role in the development of largescale sector collapses at Stromboli, as they occurred perpendicular to the orientation of the main volcanic rift axis (oriented in NE-SW direction). The characterization of these events and their relationships with successive erosive-depositional processes represents the main focus of cap.4 (Offshore evidence of large-scale lateral collapses on the eastern flank of Stromboli, Italy, due to structurally-controlled, bilateral flank instability) and cap. 5 (Lateral collapses and active sedimentary processes on the North-western flank of Stromboli Volcano), represented by articles accepted for publication on international papers (Marine Geology). Moreover, these studies highlight the hazard related to these catastrophic events; several calamities (with more than 40000 casualties only in the last two century) have been, in fact, the direct or indirect result of landslides affecting volcanic flanks, as observed at Oshima-Oshima (1741) and Unzen Volcano (1792) in Japan (Satake&Kato, 2001; Brantley&Scott, 1993), Krakatau (1883) in Indonesia (Self&Rampino, 1981), Ritter Island (1888), Sissano in Papua New Guinea (Ward& Day, 2003; Johnson, 1987; Tappin et al., 2001) and Mt St. Augustine (1883) in Alaska (Beget& Kienle, 1992). Flank landslide are also recognized as the most important and efficient mass-wasting process on volcanoes, contributing to the development of the edifices by widening their base and to the growth of a volcaniclastic apron at the foot of a volcano; a number of small and medium-scale erosive processes are also responsible for the carving of Stromboli submarine flanks and the transport of debris towards the deeper areas. The characterization of features associated to these processes is the main focus of cap. 6; it is also important to highlight that some small-scale events are able to create damage to coastal areas, as also witnessed by recent events of Gioia Tauro 1978, Nizza, 1979 and Stromboli 2002. The hazard potential related to these phenomena is, in fact, very high, as they commonly occur at higher frequency with respect to large-scale collapses, therefore being more significant in terms of human timescales. In the last chapter (cap. 7), a brief review and discussion of instability processes identified on Stromboli submerged flanks is presented; they are also compared with respect to analogous processes recognized in other submerged areas in order to shed lights on the main factors involved in their development. Finally, some applications of multibeam data to assess the hazard related to these phenomena are also discussed.

Slope stability analysis by multi-temporal DEMs and 3D modelling: The 2002 and 2007 Stromboli landslide events

Natural hazard related to the volcanic activity represents a potential risk factor, particularly in the vicinity of human settlements. Besides to the risk related to the explosive and effusive activity, the instability of volcanic edifices may develop into large landslides often catastrophically destructive, as shown by the collapse of the northern flank of Mount St. Helens in 1980. A combined approach was applied to analyse slope failures that occurred at Stromboli volcano. SdF slope stability was evaluated by using high-resolution multi-temporal DTMMs and performing limit equilibrium stability analyses. High-resolution topographical data collected with remote sensing techniques and three-dimensional slope stability analysis play a key role in understanding instability mechanism and the related risks. Analyses carried out on the 2002–2003 and 2007 Stromboli eruptions, starting from high-resolution data acquired through airborne remote sensing surveys, permitted the estimation of the lava volumes emplaced on the SdF slope and contributed to the investigation of the link between magma emission and slope instabilities. Limit Equilibrium analyses were performed on the 2001 and 2007 3D models, in order to simulate the slope behavior before 2002-2003 landslide event and after the 2007 eruption. Stability analyses were conducted to understand the mechanisms that controlled the slope deformations which occurred shortly after the 2007 eruption onset, involving the upper part of slope. Limit equilibrium analyses applied to both cases yielded results which are congruent with observations and monitoring data. The results presented in this work undoubtedly indicate that hazard assessment for the island of Stromboli should take into account the fact that a new magma intrusion could lead to further destabilisation of the slope, which may be more significant than the one recently observed because it will affect an already disarranged deposit and fractured and loosened crater area. The two-pronged approach based on the analysis of 3D multi-temporal mapping datasets and on the application of LE methods contributed to better understanding volcano flank behaviour and to be prepared to undertake actions aimed at risk mitigation.

Quality assessment of a landslide inventory map and its application to land‐use planning. A case study in the Northern Apennines (Emilia‐Romagna region, Italy)

Landslide hazard and risk are growing as a consequence of climate change and demographic pressure. Land‐use planning represents a powerful tool to manage this socio‐economic problem and build sustainable and landslide resilient communities. Landslide inventory maps are a cornerstone of land‐use planning and, consequently, their quality assessment represents a burning issue. This work aimed to define the quality parameters of a landslide inventory and assess its spatial and temporal accuracy with regard to its possible applications to land‐use planning. In this sense, I proceeded according to a two‐steps approach. An overall assessment of the accuracy of data geographic positioning was performed on four case study sites located in the Italian Northern Apennines. The quantification of the overall spatial and temporal accuracy, instead, focused on the Dorgola Valley (Province of Reggio Emilia). The assessment of spatial accuracy involved a comparison between remotely sensed and field survey data, as well as an innovative fuzzylike analysis of a multi‐temporal landslide inventory map. Conversely, long‐ and short‐term landslide temporal persistence was appraised over a period of 60 years with the aid of 18 remotely sensed image sets. These results were eventually compared with the current Territorial Plan for Provincial Coordination (PTCP) of the Province of Reggio Emilia. The outcome of this work suggested that geomorphologically detected and mapped landslides are a significant approximation of a more complex reality. In order to convey to the end‐users this intrinsic uncertainty, a new form of cartographic representation is needed. In this sense, a fuzzy raster landslide map may be an option. With regard to land‐use planning, landslide inventory maps, if appropriately updated, confirmed to be essential decision‐support tools. This research, however, proved that their spatial and temporal uncertainty discourages any direct use as zoning maps, especially when zoning itself is associated to statutory or advisory regulations.

Landslide susceptibility in the Belt and Road Initiative

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a project launched by the Chinese Government whose main goal is to connect more than 65 countries in Asia, Europe, Africa and Oceania developing infrastructures and facilities. To support the prevention or mitigation of landslide hazards, which may affect the mainland infrastructures of BRI, a landslide susceptibility analysis in the countries involved has been carried out. Due to the large study area, the analysis has been carried out using a multi-scale approach which consists of mapping susceptibility firstly at continental scale, and then at national scale. The study area selected for the continental assessment is the south-Asia, where a pixel-based landslide susceptibility map has been carried out using the Weight of Evidence method and validated by Receiving Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. Then, we selected the regions of west Tajikistan and north-east India to be investigated at national scale. Data scarcity is a common condition for many countries involved into the Initiative. Therefore in addition to the landslide susceptibility assessment of west Tajikistan, which has been conducted using a Generalized Additive Model and validated by ROC curves, we have examined, in the same study area, the effect of incomplete landslide dataset on the prediction capacity of statistical models. The entire PhD research activity has been conducted using only open data and open-source software. In this context, to support the analysis of the last years an open-source plugin for QGIS has been implemented. The SZ-tool allows the user to make susceptibility assessments from the data preprocessing, susceptibility mapping, to the final classification. All the output data of the analysis conducted are freely available and downloadable. This text describes the research activity of the last three years. Each chapter reports the text of the articles published in international scientific journal during the PhD.

Landslide activity in contrasting land-cover settings constrained by multi-temporal inventorying

This doctoral thesis focuses on the study of historical shallow landslide activity over time in response to anthropogenic forcing on land use, through the compilation of multi-temporal landslide inventories. The study areas, located in contrasting settings and characterized by different history of land-cover changes, include the Sillaro River basin (Italy) and the Tsitika and Eve River basins (coastal British Columbia). The Sillaro River basin belongs to clay-dominated settings, characterized by extensive badland development, and dominated by earth slides and earthflows. Here, forest removal began in the Roman period and has been followed by agricultural land abandonment and natural revegetation in recent time. By contrast, the Tsitika-Eve River basins are characterized by granitic and basaltic lithologies, and dominated by debris slides, debris flows and debris avalanches. In this setting, anthropogenic impacts started in 1960’s and have involved logging operation. The thesis begins with an introductory chapter, followed by a methodological section, where a multi-temporal mapping approach is proposed and tested at four landslide sites of the Sillaro River basin. Results, in terms of inventory completeness in time and space, are compared against the existing region-wide Emilia-Romagna inventory. This approach is then applied at the Sillaro River basin scale, where the multi-temporal inventory obtained is used to investigate the landslide activity in relation to historical land cover changes across geologic domains and in relation to hydro-meteorological forcing. Then, the impact of timber harvesting and road construction on landslide activity and sediment transfer in the Tsitika-Eve River basins is investigated, with a focus on the controls that interactions between landscape morphometry and cutblock location may have on landslide size-frequency relations. The thesis ends with a summary of the main findings and discusses advantages and limitations associated with the compilation of multi-temporal inventories in the two settings during different periods of human-driven, land-cover dynamics.

Mass-transport deposits on Mediterranean continental margins

Extensive mass transport deposits and multiple slide scars testify widespread and recurrent submarine sediment failures occurring during the late Quaternary on the SW-Adriatic and SE-Sicilian margins. These mass movements and their consequences contributed to shape the continental slopes and fill the basins with characteristic signatures. Geomorphological, seismo-stratigraphic, sedimentological and biostratigraphic data provide clues to: 1) define distinct failure mechanisms investigating on factors that determine dissimilar organization of coeval displaced masses, 2) reconstruct successive phases of failure stressing on the same location where slide scars crosscut and mass-transport deposits overlap, 3) analyze regional setting and indicate the most suitable place where to calculate mass wasting frequency. Discussions on the role of fluid flow, currents activity and tectonic deformation determine a wider view on the construction of the studied continental margins.

Provenienza dei sedimenti arenitici nel bacino di Tracia (eo-oligocene, Turchia nord-occidentale e Grecia nord-orientale)

The Thrace Basin is the largest and thickest Tertiary sedimentary basin of the eastern Balkans region and constitutes an important hydrocarbon province. It is located between the Rhodope-Strandja Massif to the north and west, the Marmara Sea and Biga Peninsula to the south, and the Black Sea to the est. It consists of a complex system of depocenters and uplifts with very articulate paleotopography indicated by abrupt lateral facies variations. Its southeastern margin is widely deformed by the Ganos Fault, a segment of the North Anatolian strike-slip fault system . Most of the Thrace Basin fill ranges from the Eocene to the Late Oligocene. Maximum total thickness, including the Neogene-Quaternary succession, reaches 9.000 meters in a few narrow depocenters. This sedimentary succession consists mainly of basin plain turbiditic deposits with a significant volcaniclastic component which evolves upwards to shelf deposits and continental facies, with deltaic bodies prograding towards the basin center in the Oligocene. This work deals with the provenance of Eocene-Oligocene clastic sediments of the southern and western part of Thrace Basin in Turkey and Greece. Sandstone compositional data (78 gross composition analyses and 40 heavy minerals analyses) were used to understand the change in detrital modes which reflects the provenance and geodinamic evolution of the basin. Samples were collected at six localities, which are from west to est: Gökçeada, Gallipoli and South-Ganos (south of Ganos Fault), Alexandroupolis, Korudağ and North-Ganos (north of Ganos Fault). Petrologic (framework composition and heavy-mineral analyses) and stratigraphic-sedimentologic data, (analysis of sedimentologic facies associations along representative stratigraphic sections, paleocurrents) allowed discrimination of six petrofacies; for each petrofacies the sediment dispersal system was delineated. The Thrace Basin fill is made mainly of lithic arkoses and arkosic litharenites with variable amount of low-grade metamorphic lithics (also ophiolitic), neovolcanic lithics, and carbonate grains (mainly extrabasinal). Picotite is the most widespread heavy mineral in all petrofacies. Petrological data on analyzed successions show a complex sediment dispersal pattern and evolution of the basin, indicating one principal detrital input from a source area located to the south, along both the İzmir-Ankara and Intra-Pontide suture lines, and a possible secondary source area, represented by the Rhodope Massif to the west. A significant portion of the Thrace Basin sediments in the study area were derived from ophiolitic source rocks and from their oceanic cover, whereas epimetamorphic detrital components came from a low-grade crystalline basement. An important penecontemporaneous volcanic component is widespread in late Eocene-Oligocene times, indicating widespread post-collisional (collapse?) volcanism following the closure of the Vardar ocean. Large-scale sediment mass wasting from south to north along the southern margin of the Thrace Basin is indicated (i) in late Eocene time by large olistoliths of ophiolites and penecontemporaneous carbonates, and (ii) in the mid-Oligocene by large volcaniclastic olistoliths. The late Oligocene paleogeographic scenario was characterized by large deltaic bodies prograding northward (Osmancik Formation). This clearly indicates that the southern margin of the basin acted as a major sediment source area throughout its Eocene-Oligocene history. Another major sediment source area is represented by the Rhodope Massif, in particolar the Circum-Rhodopic belt, especially for plutonic and metamorphic rocks. Considering preexisting data on the petrologic composition of Thrace Basin, silicilastic sediments in Greece and Bulgaria (Caracciolo, 2009), a Rhodopian provenance could be considered mostly for areas of the Thrace Basin outside our study area, particularly in the northern-central portions of the basin. In summary, the most important source area for the sediment of Thrace Basin in the study area was represented by the exhumed subduction-accretion complex along the southern margin of the basin (Biga Peninsula and western-central Marmara Sea region). Most measured paleocurrent indicators show an eastward paleoflow but this is most likely the result of gravity flow deflection. This is possible considered a strong control due to the east-west-trending synsedimentary transcurrent faults which cuts the Thrace Basin, generating a series of depocenters and uplifts which deeply influenced sediment dispersal and the areal distribution of paleoenvironments. The Thrace Basin was long interpreted as a forearc basin between a magmatic arc to the north and a subduction-accretion complex to the south, developed in a context of northward subduction. This interpretation was challenged by more recent data emphasizing the lack of a coeval magmatic arc in the north and the interpretation of the chaotic deposit which outcrop south of Ganos Fault as olistoliths and large submarine slumps, derived from the erosion and sedimentary reworking of an older mélange unit located to the south (not as tectonic mélange formed in an accretionary prism). The present study corroborates instead the hypothesis of a post-collisional origin of the Thrace Basin, due to a phase of orogenic collapse, which generated a series of mid-Eocene depocenters all along the İzmir-Ankara suture (following closure of the Vardar-İzmir-Ankara ocean and the ensuing collision); then the slab roll-back of the remnant Pindos ocean played an important role in enhancing subsidence and creating additional accommodation space for sediment deposition.

Analisi critica di modelli previsionali per le frane in Emilia Romagna

Questa tesi di dottorato è inserita nell’ambito della convenzione tra ARPA_SIMC (che è l’Ente finanziatore), l’Agenzia Regionale di Protezione Civile ed il Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geologico - Ambientali dell’Ateneo di Bologna. L’obiettivo principale è la determinazione di possibili soglie pluviometriche di innesco per i fenomeni franosi in Emilia Romagna che possano essere utilizzate come strumento di supporto previsionale in sala operativa di Protezione Civile. In un contesto geologico così complesso, un approccio empirico tradizionale non è sufficiente per discriminare in modo univoco tra eventi meteo innescanti e non, ed in generale la distribuzione dei dati appare troppo dispersa per poter tracciare una soglia statisticamente significativa. È stato quindi deciso di applicare il rigoroso approccio statistico Bayesiano, innovativo poiché calcola la probabilità di frana dato un certo evento di pioggia (P(A|B)) , considerando non solo le precipitazioni innescanti frane (quindi la probabilità condizionata di avere un certo evento di precipitazione data l’occorrenza di frana, P(B|A)), ma anche le precipitazioni non innescanti (quindi la probabilità a priori di un evento di pioggia, P(A)). L’approccio Bayesiano è stato applicato all’intervallo temporale compreso tra il 1939 ed il 2009. Le isolinee di probabilità ottenute minimizzano i falsi allarmi e sono facilmente implementabili in un sistema di allertamento regionale, ma possono presentare limiti previsionali per fenomeni non rappresentati nel dataset storico o che avvengono in condizioni anomale. Ne sono esempio le frane superficiali con evoluzione in debris flows, estremamente rare negli ultimi 70 anni, ma con frequenza recentemente in aumento. Si è cercato di affrontare questo problema testando la variabilità previsionale di alcuni modelli fisicamente basati appositamente sviluppati a questo scopo, tra cui X – SLIP (Montrasio et al., 1998), SHALSTAB (SHALlow STABility model, Montgomery & Dietrich, 1994), Iverson (2000), TRIGRS 1.0 (Baum et al., 2002), TRIGRS 2.0 (Baum et al., 2008).

Evaluation of slope stability under water and seismic load through the Minimum Lithostatic Deviation method

The main objective of this thesis is to obtain a better understanding of the methods to assess the stability of a slope. We have illustrated the principal variants of the Limit Equilibrium (LE) method found in literature, focalizing our attention on the Minimum Lithostatic Deviation (MLD) method, developed by Prof. Tinti and his collaborators (e.g. Tinti and Manucci, 2006, 2008). We had two main goals: the first was to test the MLD method on some real cases. We have selected the case of the Vajont landslide with the objective to reconstruct the conditions that caused the destabilization of Mount Toc, and two sites in the Norwegian margin, where failures has not occurred recently, with the aim to evaluate the present stability state and to assess under which conditions they might be mobilized. The second goal was to study the stability charts by Taylor and by Michalowski, and to use the MLD method to investigate the correctness and adequacy of this engineering tool.

Statistical analysis of the error associated with the simplification of the stratigraphy in geotechnical models

The uncertainties in the determination of the stratigraphic profile of natural soils is one of the main problems in geotechnics, in particular for landslide characterization and modeling. The study deals with a new approach in geotechnical modeling which relays on a stochastic generation of different soil layers distributions, following a boolean logic – the method has been thus called BoSG (Boolean Stochastic Generation). In this way, it is possible to randomize the presence of a specific material interdigitated in a uniform matrix. In the building of a geotechnical model it is generally common to discard some stratigraphic data in order to simplify the model itself, assuming that the significance of the results of the modeling procedure would not be affected. With the proposed technique it is possible to quantify the error associated with this simplification. Moreover, it could be used to determine the most significant zones where eventual further investigations and surveys would be more effective to build the geotechnical model of the slope. The commercial software FLAC was used for the 2D and 3D geotechnical model. The distribution of the materials was randomized through a specifically coded MatLab program that automatically generates text files, each of them representing a specific soil configuration. Besides, a routine was designed to automate the computation of FLAC with the different data files in order to maximize the sample number. The methodology is applied with reference to a simplified slope in 2D, a simplified slope in 3D and an actual landslide, namely the Mortisa mudslide (Cortina d’Ampezzo, BL, Italy). However, it could be extended to numerous different cases, especially for hydrogeological analysis and landslide stability assessment, in different geological and geomorphological contexts.