On the role of Computational Logic in Data Science: representing, learning, reasoning, and explaining knowledge

In this thesis we discuss in what ways computational logic (CL) and data science (DS) can jointly contribute to the management of knowledge within the scope of modern and future artificial intelligence (AI), and how technically-sound software technologies can be realised along the path. An agent-oriented mindset permeates the whole discussion, by stressing pivotal role of autonomous agents in exploiting both means to reach higher degrees of intelligence. Accordingly, the goals of this thesis are manifold. First, we elicit the analogies and differences among CL and DS, hence looking for possible synergies and complementarities along 4 major knowledge-related dimensions, namely representation, acquisition (a.k.a. learning), inference (a.k.a. reasoning), and explanation. In this regard, we propose a conceptual framework through which bridges these disciplines can be described and designed. We then survey the current state of the art of AI technologies, w.r.t. their capability to support bridging CL and DS in practice. After detecting lacks and opportunities, we propose the notion of logic ecosystem as the new conceptual, architectural, and technological solution supporting the incremental integration of symbolic and sub-symbolic AI. Finally, we discuss how our notion of logic ecosys- tem can be reified into actual software technology and extended towards many DS-related directions.

Bayesian Analysis of Linear Inverse Problems with Applications in Economics and Finance

In my PhD thesis I propose a Bayesian nonparametric estimation method for structural econometric models where the functional parameter of interest describes the economic agent's behavior. The structural parameter is characterized as the solution of a functional equation, or by using more technical words, as the solution of an inverse problem that can be either ill-posed or well-posed. From a Bayesian point of view, the parameter of interest is a random function and the solution to the inference problem is the posterior distribution of this parameter. A regular version of the posterior distribution in functional spaces is characterized. However, the infinite dimension of the considered spaces causes a problem of non continuity of the solution and then a problem of inconsistency, from a frequentist point of view, of the posterior distribution (i.e. problem of ill-posedness). The contribution of this essay is to propose new methods to deal with this problem of ill-posedness. The first one consists in adopting a Tikhonov regularization scheme in the construction of the posterior distribution so that I end up with a new object that I call regularized posterior distribution and that I guess it is solution of the inverse problem. The second approach consists in specifying a prior distribution on the parameter of interest of the g-prior type. Then, I detect a class of models for which the prior distribution is able to correct for the ill-posedness also in infinite dimensional problems. I study asymptotic properties of these proposed solutions and I prove that, under some regularity condition satisfied by the true value of the parameter of interest, they are consistent in a "frequentist" sense. Once I have set the general theory, I apply my bayesian nonparametric methodology to different estimation problems. First, I apply this estimator to deconvolution and to hazard rate, density and regression estimation. Then, I consider the estimation of an Instrumental Regression that is useful in micro-econometrics when we have to deal with problems of endogeneity. Finally, I develop an application in finance: I get the bayesian estimator for the equilibrium asset pricing functional by using the Euler equation defined in the Lucas'(1978) tree-type models.

Design and Performance Evaluation of Network-on-Chip Communication Protocols and Architectures

The scale down of transistor technology allows microelectronics manufacturers such as Intel and IBM to build always more sophisticated systems on a single microchip. The classical interconnection solutions based on shared buses or direct connections between the modules of the chip are becoming obsolete as they struggle to sustain the increasing tight bandwidth and latency constraints that these systems demand. The most promising solution for the future chip interconnects are the Networks on Chip (NoC). NoCs are network composed by routers and channels used to inter- connect the different components installed on the single microchip. Examples of advanced processors based on NoC interconnects are the IBM Cell processor, composed by eight CPUs that is installed on the Sony Playstation III and the Intel Teraflops pro ject composed by 80 independent (simple) microprocessors. On chip integration is becoming popular not only in the Chip Multi Processor (CMP) research area but also in the wider and more heterogeneous world of Systems on Chip (SoC). SoC comprehend all the electronic devices that surround us such as cell-phones, smart-phones, house embedded systems, automotive systems, set-top boxes etc... SoC manufacturers such as ST Microelectronics , Samsung, Philips and also Universities such as Bologna University, M.I.T., Berkeley and more are all proposing proprietary frameworks based on NoC interconnects. These frameworks help engineers in the switch of design methodology and speed up the development of new NoC-based systems on chip. In this Thesis we propose an introduction of CMP and SoC interconnection networks. Then focusing on SoC systems we propose: • a detailed analysis based on simulation of the Spidergon NoC, a ST Microelectronics solution for SoC interconnects. The Spidergon NoC differs from many classical solutions inherited from the parallel computing world. Here we propose a detailed analysis of this NoC topology and routing algorithms. Furthermore we propose aEqualized a new routing algorithm designed to optimize the use of the resources of the network while also increasing its performance; • a methodology flow based on modified publicly available tools that combined can be used to design, model and analyze any kind of System on Chip; • a detailed analysis of a ST Microelectronics-proprietary transport-level protocol that the author of this Thesis helped developing; • a simulation-based comprehensive comparison of different network interface designs proposed by the author and the researchers at AST lab, in order to integrate shared-memory and message-passing based components on a single System on Chip; • a powerful and flexible solution to address the time closure exception issue in the design of synchronous Networks on Chip. Our solution is based on relay stations repeaters and allows to reduce the power and area demands of NoC interconnects while also reducing its buffer needs; • a solution to simplify the design of the NoC by also increasing their performance and reducing their power and area consumption. We propose to replace complex and slow virtual channel-based routers with multiple and flexible small Multi Plane ones. This solution allows us to reduce the area and power dissipation of any NoC while also increasing its performance especially when the resources are reduced. This Thesis has been written in collaboration with the Advanced System Technology laboratory in Grenoble France, and the Computer Science Department at Columbia University in the city of New York.

An equilibrium approach to modelling social interaction

The aim of this work is to put forward a statistical mechanics theory of social interaction, generalizing econometric discrete choice models. After showing the formal equivalence linking econometric multinomial logit models to equilibrium statical mechanics, a multi- population generalization of the Curie-Weiss model for ferromagnets is considered as a starting point in developing a model capable of describing sudden shifts in aggregate human behaviour. Existence of the thermodynamic limit for the model is shown by an asymptotic sub-additivity method and factorization of correlation functions is proved almost everywhere. The exact solution for the model is provided in the thermodynamical limit by nding converging upper and lower bounds for the system's pressure, and the solution is used to prove an analytic result regarding the number of possible equilibrium states of a two-population system. The work stresses the importance of linking regimes predicted by the model to real phenomena, and to this end it proposes two possible procedures to estimate the model's parameters starting from micro-level data. These are applied to three case studies based on census type data: though these studies are found to be ultimately inconclusive on an empirical level, considerations are drawn that encourage further refinements of the chosen modelling approach, to be considered in future work.

Optimization of molecular and crystalline forms of drugs, agrochemicals, pesticides in relation to activity, bioavailability, patentability and to the fabrication of polymorphs, solvates, co-crystals with green chemistry methods

This doctorate was funded by the Regione Emilia Romagna, within a Spinner PhD project coordinated by the University of Parma, and involving the universities of Bologna, Ferrara and Modena. The aim of the project was: - Production of polymorphs, solvates, hydrates and co-crystals of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and agrochemicals with green chemistry methods; - Optimization of molecular and crystalline forms of APIs and pesticides in relation to activity, bioavailability and patentability. In the last decades, a growing interest in the solid-state properties of drugs in addition to their solution chemistry has blossomed. The achievement of the desired and/or the more stable polymorph during the production process can be a challenge for the industry. The study of crystalline forms could be a valuable step to produce new polymorphs and/or co-crystals with better physical-chemical properties such as solubility, permeability, thermal stability, habit, bulk density, compressibility, friability, hygroscopicity and dissolution rate in order to have potential industrial applications. Selected APIs (active pharmaceutical ingredients) were studied and their relationship between crystal structure and properties investigated, both in the solid state and in solution. Polymorph screening and synthesis of solvates and molecular/ionic co-crystals were performed according to green chemistry principles. Part of this project was developed in collaboration with chemical/pharmaceutical companies such as BASF (Germany) and UCB (Belgium). We focused on on the optimization of conditions and parameters of crystallization processes (additives, concentration, temperature), and on the synthesis and characterization of ionic co-crystals. Moreover, during a four-months research period in the laboratories of Professor Nair Rodriguez-Hormedo (University of Michigan), the stability in aqueous solution at the equilibrium of ionic co-crystals (ICCs) of the API piracetam was investigated, to understand the relationship between their solid-state and solution properties, in view of future design of new crystalline drugs with predefined solid and solution properties.

Modeling, Component Selection and Optimization of Servo-controlled Automatic Machinery

A servo-controlled automatic machine can perform tasks that involve synchronized actuation of a significant number of servo-axes, namely one degree-of-freedom (DoF) electromechanical actuators. Each servo-axis comprises a servo-motor, a mechanical transmission and an end-effector, and is responsible for generating the desired motion profile and providing the power required to achieve the overall task. The design of a such a machine must involve a detailed study from a mechatronic viewpoint, due to its electric and mechanical nature. The first objective of this thesis is the development of an overarching electromechanical model for a servo-axis. Every loss source is taken into account, be it mechanical or electrical. The mechanical transmission is modeled by means of a sequence of lumped-parameter blocks. The electric model of the motor and the inverter takes into account winding losses, iron losses and controller switching losses. No experimental characterizations are needed to implement the electric model, since the parameters are inferred from the data available in commercial catalogs. With the global model at disposal, a second objective of this work is to perform the optimization analysis, in particular, the selection of the motor-reducer unit. The optimal transmission ratios that minimize several objective functions are found. An optimization process is carried out and repeated for each candidate motor. Then, we present a novel method where the discrete set of available motor is extended to a continuous domain, by fitting manufacturer data. The problem becomes a two-dimensional nonlinear optimization subject to nonlinear constraints, and the solution gives the optimal choice for the motor-reducer system. The presented electromechanical model, along with the implementation of optimization algorithms, forms a complete and powerful simulation tool for servo-controlled automatic machines. The tool allows for determining a wide range of electric and mechanical parameters and the behavior of the system in different operating conditions.

Inertial and magnetic sensors for upper limb kinematics: modeling, calibration, sensor fusion and clinical applications

The primary aim of the research activity presented in this PhD thesis was the development of an innovative hardware and software solution for creating a unique tool for kinematics and electromyographic analysis of the human body in an ecological setting. For this purpose, innovative algorithms have been proposed regarding different aspects of inertial and magnetic data elaboration: magnetometer calibration and magnetic field mapping (Chapter 2), data calibration (Chapter 3) and sensor-fusion algorithm. Topics that may conflict with the confidentiality agreement between University of Bologna and NCS Lab will not be covered in this thesis. After developing and testing the wireless platform, research activities were focused on its clinical validation. The first clinical study aimed to evaluate the intra and interobserver reproducibility in order to evaluate three-dimensional humero-scapulo-thoracic kinematics in an outpatient setting (Chapter 4). A second study aimed to evaluate the effect of Latissimus Dorsi Tendon Transfer on shoulder kinematics and Latissimus Dorsi activation in humerus intra - extra rotations (Chapter 5). Results from both clinical studies have demonstrated the ability of the developed platform to enter into daily clinical practice, providing useful information for patients' rehabilitation.

The effect of linseed oil on the properties of lime-based restoration mortars

The traditional lime mortar is composed of hydrated lime, sand and water. Besides these constituents it may also contain additives aiming to modify fresh mortar´s properties and/or to improve hardened mortar´s strength and durability. Already in the first civilizations various additives were used to enhance mortar´s quality, among the organic additives, linseed oil was one of the most common. From literature we know that it was used already in Roman period to reduce water permeability of a mortar, but the mechanism and the technology, e.g. effects of different dosages, are not clearly explained. There are only few works studying the effect of oil experimentally. Knowing the function of oil in historical mortars is important for designing a new compatible repair mortar. Moreover, linseed oil addition could increase the sometimes insufficient durability of lime-based mortars used for reparation and it could be a natural alternative to synthetic additives. In the present study, the effect of linseed oil on the properties of six various lime-based mortars has been studied. Mortars´ compositions have been selected with respect to composition of historical mortars, but also mortars used in a modern restoration practise have been tested. Oil was added in two different concentrations – 1% and 3% by the weight of binder. The addition of 1% of linseed oil has proved to have positive effect on mortars´ properties. It improves mechanical characteristics and limits water absorption into mortar without affecting significantly the total open porosity or decreasing the degree of carbonation. On the other hand, the 3% addition of linseed oil is making mortar to be almost hydrophobic, but it markedly decreases mortars´ strength. However, all types of tested lime-based mortars with the oil addition showed significantly decreased water and salt solution absorption by capillary rise. Addition of oil into mortars is also decreasing the proportion of pores which are easily accessible to water. Furthermore, mortars with linseed oil showed significantly improved resistance to salt crystallization and freeze-thaw cycles. On the base of the obtained results, the addition of 1% of linseed oil can be taken into consideration in the design of mortars meant to repair or replace historic mortars.

Semantic Service Architectures for Smart Environments

Many industries and academic institutions share the vision that an appropriate use of information originated from the environment may add value to services in multiple domains and may help humans in dealing with the growing information overload which often seems to jeopardize our life. It is also clear that information sharing and mutual understanding between software agents may impact complex processes where many actors (humans and machines) are involved, leading to relevant socioeconomic benefits. Starting from these two input, architectural and technological solutions to enable “environment-related cooperative digital services” are here explored. The proposed analysis starts from the consideration that our environment is physical space and here diversity is a major value. On the other side diversity is detrimental to common technological solutions, and it is an obstacle to mutual understanding. An appropriate environment abstraction and a shared information model are needed to provide the required levels of interoperability in our heterogeneous habitat. This thesis reviews several approaches to support environment related applications and intends to demonstrate that smart-space-based, ontology-driven, information-sharing platforms may become a flexible and powerful solution to support interoperable services in virtually any domain and even in cross-domain scenarios. It also shows that semantic technologies can be fruitfully applied not only to represent application domain knowledge. For example semantic modeling of Human-Computer Interaction may support interaction interoperability and transformation of interaction primitives into actions, and the thesis shows how smart-space-based platforms driven by an interaction ontology may enable natural ad flexible ways of accessing resources and services, e.g, with gestures. An ontology for computational flow execution has also been built to represent abstract computation, with the goal of exploring new ways of scheduling computation flows with smart-space-based semantic platforms.

Variabilità spaziale dei parametri di modelli afflussi-deflussi

L’invarianza spaziale dei parametri di un modello afflussi-deflussi può rivelarsi una soluzione pratica e valida nel caso si voglia stimare la disponibilità di risorsa idrica di un’area. La simulazione idrologica è infatti uno strumento molto adottato ma presenta alcune criticità legate soprattutto alla necessità di calibrare i parametri del modello. Se si opta per l’applicazione di modelli spazialmente distribuiti, utili perché in grado di rendere conto della variabilità spaziale dei fenomeni che concorrono alla formazione di deflusso, il problema è solitamente legato all’alto numero di parametri in gioco. Assumendo che alcuni di questi siano omogenei nello spazio, dunque presentino lo stesso valore sui diversi bacini, è possibile ridurre il numero complessivo dei parametri che necessitano della calibrazione. Si verifica su base statistica questa assunzione, ricorrendo alla stima dell’incertezza parametrica valutata per mezzo di un algoritmo MCMC. Si nota che le distribuzioni dei parametri risultano in diversa misura compatibili sui bacini considerati. Quando poi l’obiettivo è la stima della disponibilità di risorsa idrica di bacini non strumentati, l’ipotesi di invarianza dei parametri assume ancora più importanza; solitamente infatti si affronta questo problema ricorrendo a lunghe analisi di regionalizzazione dei parametri. In questa sede invece si propone una procedura di cross-calibrazione che viene realizzata adottando le informazioni provenienti dai bacini strumentati più simili al sito di interesse. Si vuole raggiungere cioè un giusto compromesso tra lo svantaggio derivante dall’assumere i parametri del modello costanti sui bacini strumentati e il beneficio legato all’introduzione, passo dopo passo, di nuove e importanti informazioni derivanti dai bacini strumentati coinvolti nell’analisi. I risultati dimostrano l’utilità della metodologia proposta; si vede infatti che, in fase di validazione sul bacino considerato non strumentato, è possibile raggiungere un buona concordanza tra le serie di portata simulate e osservate.

Modellazione Tridimensionale del Processo di Combustione di un Razzo a Propellente Solido

La regolazione dei sistemi di propulsione a razzo a propellente solido (Solid Rocket Motors) ha da sempre rappresentato una delle principali problematiche legate a questa tipologia di motori. L’assenza di un qualsiasi genere di controllo diretto del processo di combustione del grano solido, fa si che la previsione della balistica interna rappresenti da sempre il principale strumento utilizzato sia per definire in fase di progetto la configurazione ottimale del motore, sia per analizzare le eventuali anomalie riscontrate in ambito sperimentale. Variazioni locali nella struttura del propellente, difettosità interne o eterogeneità nelle condizioni di camera posso dare origine ad alterazioni del rateo locale di combustione del propellente e conseguentemente a profili di pressione e di spinta sperimentali differenti da quelli previsti per via teorica. Molti dei codici attualmente in uso offrono un approccio piuttosto semplificato al problema, facendo per lo più ricorso a fattori correttivi (fattori HUMP) semi-empirici, senza tuttavia andare a ricostruire in maniera più realistica le eterogeneità di prestazione del propellente. Questo lavoro di tesi vuole dunque proporre un nuovo approccio alla previsione numerica delle prestazioni dei sistemi a propellente solido, attraverso la realizzazione di un nuovo codice di simulazione, denominato ROBOOST (ROcket BOOst Simulation Tool). Richiamando concetti e techiche proprie della Computer Grafica, questo nuovo codice è in grado di ricostruire in processo di regressione superficiale del grano in maniera puntuale, attraverso l’utilizzo di una mesh triangolare mobile. Variazioni locali del rateo di combustione posso quindi essere facilmente riprodotte ed il calcolo della balistica interna avviene mediante l’accoppiamento di un modello 0D non-stazionario e di uno 1D quasi-stazionario. L’attività è stata svolta in collaborazione con l’azienda Avio Space Division e il nuovo codice è stato implementato con successo sul motore Zefiro 9.