Shareholder protection and stock market development

The dissertation contains five parts: An introduction, three major chapters, and a short conclusion. The First Chapter starts from a survey and discussion of the studies on corporate law and financial development literature. The commonly used methods in these cross-sectional analyses are biased as legal origins are no longer valid instruments. Hence, the model uncertainty becomes a salient problem. The Bayesian Model Averaging algorithm is applied to test the robustness of empirical results in Djankov et al. (2008). The analysis finds that their constructed legal index is not robustly correlated with most of the various stock market outcome variables. The second Chapter looks into the effects of minority shareholders protection in corporate governance regime on entrepreneurs' ex ante incentives to undertake IPO. Most of the current literature focuses on the beneficial part of minority shareholder protection on valuation, while overlooks its private costs on entrepreneur's control. As a result, the entrepreneur trade-offs the costs of monitoring with the benefits of cheap sources of finance when minority shareholder protection improves. The theoretical predictions are empirically tested using panel data and GMM-sys estimator. The third Chapter investigates the corporate law and corporate governance reform in China. The corporate law in China regards shareholder control as the means to the ends of pursuing the interests of stakeholders, which is inefficient. The Chapter combines the recent development of theories of the firm, i.e., the team production theory and the property rights theory, to solve such problem. The enlightened shareholder value, which emphasizes on the long term valuation of the firm, should be adopted as objectives of listed firms. In addition, a move from the mandatory division of power between shareholder meeting and board meeting to the default regime, is proposed.

Essays in the Economics of Ageing

In the first paper, I assess if financial incentives may be used as an effective device to induce workers to postpone retirement by evaluating the Italian so called “super bonus” reform. The bonus consisted in economic incentives given for a limited period to private sector workers who had reached the requirements for seniority pension. Crucially for this study, public workers were not entitled to the bonus. Using data from the Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income andWealth, and exploiting the DID-Probit strategy proposed by Blundell et al. (JEEA, 2004), I assess the effect of the bonus on the decision to postpone retirement, by comparing private and public workers before and after the reform. Results suggest a reduction of 12ppt in the proportion of private workers who decided to retire among those qualifying for retirement. Results also suggest, not trivially, that most of the effect of the reform is driven by low-income workers. Finally, I propose an estimate of the extensive margin elasticity of Italian older workers. The second study estimates a structural reduced form of the “option value” model developed by Stock and Wise (1990) using Italian data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE).Exploiting exogenous changes in social security wealth (SSW) results show a significant effect in the expected direction of SSW and of marginal incentives to retire. Results are robust even after controlling for individual heterogeneity and its correlation with financial incentives. Using detailed information on individuals, the results also highlights the importance of individual and job characteristics, which have been very little explored by this literature, as determinants of retirement. This suggests the potential of “tagging” in the design of social security incentives in order to reduce choice distortions and improve the overall efficiency of the system.

Il conflitto fra trasparenza sui mercati finanziari ed esigenza di riservatezza della società

The thesis main topic is the conflict between disclosure in financial markets and the need for confidentiality of the firm. After a recognition of the major dynamics of information production and dissemination in the stock market, the analysis moves to the interactions between the information that a firm is tipically interested in keeping confidential, such as trade secrets or the data usually covered by patent protection, and the countervailing demand for disclosure arising from finacial markets. The analysis demonstrates that despite the seeming divergence between informational contents tipically disclosed to investors and information usually covered by intellectual property protection, the overlapping areas are nonetheless wide and the conflict between transparency in financial markets and the firm’s need for confidentiality arises frequently and sistematically. Indeed, the company’s disclosure policy is based on a continuous trade-off between the costs and the benefits related to the public dissemination of information. Such costs are mainly represented by the competitive harm caused by competitors’ access to sensitive data, while the benefits mainly refer to the lower cost of capital that the firm obtains as a consequence of more disclosure. Secrecy shields the value of costly produced information against third parties’ free riding and constitutes therefore a means to protect the firm’s incentives toward the production of new information and especially toward technological and business innovation. Excessively demanding standards of transparency in financial markets might hinder such set of incentives and thus jeopardize the dynamics of innovation production. Within Italian securities regulation, there are two sets of rules mostly relevant with respect to such an issue: the first one is the rule that mandates issuers to promptly disclose all price-sensitive information to the market on an ongoing basis; the second one is the duty to disclose in the prospectus all the information “necessary to enable investors to make an informed assessment” of the issuers’ financial and economic perspectives. Both rules impose high disclosure standards and have potentially unlimited scope. Yet, they have safe harbours aimed at protecting the issuer need for confidentiality. Despite the structural incompatibility between public dissemination of information and the firm’s need to keep certain data confidential, there are certain ways to convey information to the market while preserving at the same time the firm’s need for confidentality. Such means are insider trading and selective disclosure: both are based on mechanics whereby the process of price reaction to the new information takes place without any corresponding activity of public release of data. Therefore, they offer a solution to the conflict between disclosure and the need for confidentiality that enhances market efficiency and preserves at the same time the private set of incentives toward innovation.

The cutting stock problem in the wood industry

This thesis proposes a solution for board cutting in the wood industry with the aim of usage minimization and machine productivity. The problem is dealt with as a Two-Dimensional Cutting Stock Problem and specific Combinatorial Optimization methods are used to solve it considering the features of the real problem.

Topics in financial econometrics

In the first chapter, we consider the joint estimation of objective and risk-neutral parameters for SV option pricing models. We propose a strategy which exploits the information contained in large heterogeneous panels of options, and we apply it to S&P 500 index and index call options data. Our approach breaks the stochastic singularity between contemporaneous option prices by assuming that every observation is affected by measurement error. We evaluate the likelihood function by using a MC-IS strategy combined with a Particle Filter algorithm. The second chapter examines the impact of different categories of traders on market transactions. We estimate a model which takes into account traders’ identities at the transaction level, and we find that the stock prices follow the direction of institutional trading. These results are carried out with data from an anonymous market. To explain our estimates, we examine the informativeness of a wide set of market variables and we find that most of them are unambiguously significant to infer the identity of traders. The third chapter investigates the relationship between the categories of market traders and three definitions of financial durations. We consider trade, price and volume durations, and we adopt a Log-ACD model where we include information on traders at the transaction level. As to trade durations, we observe an increase of the trading frequency when informed traders and the liquidity provider intensify their presence in the market. For price and volume durations, we find the same effect to depend on the state of the market activity. The fourth chapter proposes a strategy to express order aggressiveness in quantitative terms. We consider a simultaneous equation model to examine price and volume aggressiveness at Euronext Paris, and we analyse the impact of a wide set of order book variables on the price-quantity decision.

Essays On CEO Compensation: New Evidence On The Managerial-Power Vs. Optimal Contracting Debate

This dissertation analyzes the effect of market analysts’ expectations of share prices (price targets) on executive compensation. It examines how well the estimated effects of price targets on compensation fit with two competing views on determining executive compensation: the arm’s length bargaining model, which assumes that a board seeks to maximize shareholders’ interests, and the managerial power model, which assumes that a board seeks to maximize managers’ compensation (Bebchuk et al. 2005). The first chapter documents the pattern of CEO pay from fiscal year 1996 to 2010. The second chapter analyzes the Institutional Broker Estimate System Detail History Price Target data file, which that reports analysts’ price targets for firms. I show that the number of price target announcements is positively associated with company share price’s volatility, that price targets are predictive of changes in the value of stocks, and that when analysts announce positive (negative) expectations of future stock price, share prices change in the same direction in the short run. The third chapter analyzes the effect of price targets on executive compensation. I find that analysts' price targets alter the composition of executive pay between cash-based compensation and stock-based compensation. When analysts forecast a rise (fall) in the share price for a firm, the compensation package tilts toward stock-based (cash-based) compensation. The substitution effect is stronger in companies that have weaker corporate governance. The fourth chapter explores the effect of the introduction of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) in 2002 and its reinforcement in 2006 on the options granting process. I show that the introduction of SOX and its reinforcement eliminated the practice of backdating options but increased “spring-loading” of option grants around price targets announcements. Overall, the dissertation shows that price targets provide insights into the determinants of executive pay in favor of the managerial power model.

Gold and the Stock Market: 3 Essays on Gold Investments

This thesis gives an overview of the history of gold per se, of gold as an investment good and offers some institutional details about gold and other precious metal markets. The goal of this study is to investigate the role of gold as a store of value and hedge against negative market movements in turbulent times. I investigate gold’s ability to act as a safe haven during periods of financial stress by employing instrumental variable techniques that allow for time varying conditional covariance. I find broad evidence supporting the view that gold acts as an anchor of stability during market downturns. During periods of high uncertainty and low stock market returns, gold tends to have higher than average excess returns. The effectiveness of gold as a safe haven is enhanced during periods of extreme crises: the largest peaks are observed during the global financial crises of 2007-2009 and, in particular, during the Lehman default (October 2008). A further goal of this thesis is to investigate whether gold provides protection from tail risk. I address the issue of asymmetric precious metal behavior conditioned to stock market performance and provide empirical evidence about the contribution of gold to a portfolio’s systematic skewness and kurtosis. I find that gold has positive coskewness with the market portfolio when the market is skewed to the left. Moreover, gold shows low cokurtosis with the market returns during volatile periods. I therefore show that gold is a desirable investment good to risk averse investors, since it tends to decrease the probability of experiencing extreme bad outcomes, and the magnitude of losses in case such events occur. Gold thus bears very important and under-researched characteristics as an asset class per se, which this thesis contributed to address and unveil.

Identificazione di possibili unita' di stock di Anguilla anguilla mediante analisi microchimica e morfometrica degli otoliti

L’anguilla europea, è una specie eurialina catadroma con un complesso ciclo biologico: l’area di riproduzione, unica, si trova molto distante da quella di distribuzione. La specie necessita di una gestione dello stock a fini conservazionistici. Il problema è europeo: lo stock è unico, distribuito in Europa e nell’Africa settentrionale, si riproduce in Atlantico ed è panmittico. C’è preoccupazione per il declino del reclutamento e delle catture di adulti. Lo scopo del progetto è di individuare possibili unità di stock nella penisola italiana. La ricerca è basata sullo studio degli otoliti mediante analisi morfometrica e microchimica. I contorni degli otoliti sono sottoposti ad analisi ellittica di Fourier per individuare eventuali gruppi. Gli otoliti sono stati levigati per effettuare: letture d’età, indagini microstrutturali al SEM delle fasi larvali, analisi microchimiche LA-ICP-MS del nucleo, studiarne l’origine e valutare l’ambiente di sviluppo. Le indagini morfometriche mostrano evidenti pattern ontogenetici, ma non legati ocorrelati alla località, sesso o anno di nascita. Le indagini microstrutturali hanno evidenziano l’alto contenuto organico nucleare, un pattern comune di crescita ed eventi chiave delle fasi larvali, con una media di 212 anelli giornalieri. La microchimica rivela che le larve si sviluppano in acque salate fino alla metamorfosi, poi migrano verso acque meno salate. Le analisi su campioni nati nello stesso anno, evidenziano due gruppi: individui di rimonta naturale e individui di ripopolamento. I profili nucleo bordo evidenziano la permanenza a salinità intermedie degli adulti. L’attività di ricerca si è dimostrata proficua dal punto di vista tecnico con la messa a punto di protocolli innovativi e con forti ricadute sulla riduzione dei tempi e costi d’analisi. Il debole segnale di possibili unità di stock andrà verificato in futuro mediante analisi più dettagliate discriminando meglio la storia di ogni singolo individuo.