A partial dependence factorial analysis to deal with selection bias in observational studis

This thesis presents a creative and practical approach to dealing with the problem of selection bias. Selection bias may be the most important vexing problem in program evaluation or in any line of research that attempts to assert causality. Some of the greatest minds in economics and statistics have scrutinized the problem of selection bias, with the resulting approaches – Rubin’s Potential Outcome Approach(Rosenbaum and Rubin,1983; Rubin, 1991,2001,2004) or Heckman’s Selection model (Heckman, 1979) – being widely accepted and used as the best fixes. These solutions to the bias that arises in particular from self selection are imperfect, and many researchers, when feasible, reserve their strongest causal inference for data from experimental rather than observational studies. The innovative aspect of this thesis is to propose a data transformation that allows measuring and testing in an automatic and multivariate way the presence of selection bias. The approach involves the construction of a multi-dimensional conditional space of the X matrix in which the bias associated with the treatment assignment has been eliminated. Specifically, we propose the use of a partial dependence analysis of the X-space as a tool for investigating the dependence relationship between a set of observable pre-treatment categorical covariates X and a treatment indicator variable T, in order to obtain a measure of bias according to their dependence structure. The measure of selection bias is then expressed in terms of inertia due to the dependence between X and T that has been eliminated. Given the measure of selection bias, we propose a multivariate test of imbalance in order to check if the detected bias is significant, by using the asymptotical distribution of inertia due to T (Estadella et al. 2005) , and by preserving the multivariate nature of data. Further, we propose the use of a clustering procedure as a tool to find groups of comparable units on which estimate local causal effects, and the use of the multivariate test of imbalance as a stopping rule in choosing the best cluster solution set. The method is non parametric, it does not call for modeling the data, based on some underlying theory or assumption about the selection process, but instead it calls for using the existing variability within the data and letting the data to speak. The idea of proposing this multivariate approach to measure selection bias and test balance comes from the consideration that in applied research all aspects of multivariate balance, not represented in the univariate variable- by-variable summaries, are ignored. The first part contains an introduction to evaluation methods as part of public and private decision process and a review of the literature of evaluation methods. The attention is focused on Rubin Potential Outcome Approach, matching methods, and briefly on Heckman’s Selection Model. The second part focuses on some resulting limitations of conventional methods, with particular attention to the problem of how testing in the correct way balancing. The third part contains the original contribution proposed , a simulation study that allows to check the performance of the method for a given dependence setting and an application to a real data set. Finally, we discuss, conclude and explain our future perspectives.

The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

Hybrid Methods for Resource Allocation and Scheduling Problems in Deterministic and Stochastic Environments

This work presents exact, hybrid algorithms for mixed resource Allocation and Scheduling problems; in general terms, those consist into assigning over time finite capacity resources to a set of precedence connected activities. The proposed methods have broad applicability, but are mainly motivated by applications in the field of Embedded System Design. In particular, high-performance embedded computing recently witnessed the shift from single CPU platforms with application-specific accelerators to programmable Multi Processor Systems-on-Chip (MPSoCs). Those allow higher flexibility, real time performance and low energy consumption, but the programmer must be able to effectively exploit the platform parallelism. This raises interest in the development of algorithmic techniques to be embedded in CAD tools; in particular, given a specific application and platform, the objective if to perform optimal allocation of hardware resources and to compute an execution schedule. On this regard, since embedded systems tend to run the same set of applications for their entire lifetime, off-line, exact optimization approaches are particularly appealing. Quite surprisingly, the use of exact algorithms has not been well investigated so far; this is in part motivated by the complexity of integrated allocation and scheduling, setting tough challenges for ``pure'' combinatorial methods. The use of hybrid CP/OR approaches presents the opportunity to exploit mutual advantages of different methods, while compensating for their weaknesses. In this work, we consider in first instance an Allocation and Scheduling problem over the Cell BE processor by Sony, IBM and Toshiba; we propose three different solution methods, leveraging decomposition, cut generation and heuristic guided search. Next, we face Allocation and Scheduling of so-called Conditional Task Graphs, explicitly accounting for branches with outcome not known at design time; we extend the CP scheduling framework to effectively deal with the introduced stochastic elements. Finally, we address Allocation and Scheduling with uncertain, bounded execution times, via conflict based tree search; we introduce a simple and flexible time model to take into account duration variability and provide an efficient conflict detection method. The proposed approaches achieve good results on practical size problem, thus demonstrating the use of exact approaches for system design is feasible. Furthermore, the developed techniques bring significant contributions to combinatorial optimization methods.

Evidence for a new boson in the search for the Standard Model Higgs particle decaying to four leptons at CMS

One of the main targets of the CMS experiment is to search for the Standard Model Higgs boson. The 4-lepton channel (from the Higgs decay h->ZZ->4l, l = e,mu) is one of the most promising. The analysis is based on the identification of two opposite-sign, same-flavor lepton pairs: leptons are required to be isolated and to come from the same primary vertex. The Higgs would be statistically revealed by the presence of a resonance peak in the 4-lepton invariant mass distribution. The 4-lepton analysis at CMS is presented, spanning on its most important aspects: lepton identification, variables of isolation, impact parameter, kinematics, event selection, background control and statistical analysis of results. The search leads to an evidence for a signal presence with a statistical significance of more than four standard deviations. The excess of data, with respect to the background-only predictions, indicates the presence of a new boson, with a mass of about 126 GeV/c2 , decaying to two Z bosons, whose characteristics are compatible with the SM Higgs ones.

Vehicle routing and location routing problems with minimum latency: algorithms and models

Latency can be defined as the sum of the arrival times at the customers. Minimum latency problems are specially relevant in applications related to humanitarian logistics. This thesis presents algorithms for solving a family of vehicle routing problems with minimum latency. First the latency location routing problem (LLRP) is considered. It consists of determining the subset of depots to be opened, and the routes that a set of homogeneous capacitated vehicles must perform in order to visit a set of customers such that the sum of the demands of the customers assigned to each vehicle does not exceed the capacity of the vehicle. For solving this problem three metaheuristic algorithms combining simulated annealing and variable neighborhood descent, and an iterated local search (ILS) algorithm, are proposed. Furthermore, the multi-depot cumulative capacitated vehicle routing problem (MDCCVRP) and the multi-depot k-traveling repairman problem (MDk-TRP) are solved with the proposed ILS algorithm. The MDCCVRP is a special case of the LLRP in which all the depots can be opened, and the MDk-TRP is a special case of the MDCCVRP in which the capacity constraints are relaxed. Finally, a LLRP with stochastic travel times is studied. A two-stage stochastic programming model and a variable neighborhood search algorithm are proposed for solving the problem. Furthermore a sampling method is developed for tackling instances with an infinite number of scenarios. Extensive computational experiments show that the proposed methods are effective for solving the problems under study.