The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

Tecniche di progettazione tollerante alle variazioni per circuiti digitali in tecnologie nanometriche

The digital electronic market development is founded on the continuous reduction of the transistors size, to reduce area, power, cost and increase the computational performance of integrated circuits. This trend, known as technology scaling, is approaching the nanometer size. The lithographic process in the manufacturing stage is increasing its uncertainty with the scaling down of the transistors size, resulting in a larger parameter variation in future technology generations. Furthermore, the exponential relationship between the leakage current and the threshold voltage, is limiting the threshold and supply voltages scaling, increasing the power density and creating local thermal issues, such as hot spots, thermal runaway and thermal cycles. In addiction, the introduction of new materials and the smaller devices dimension are reducing transistors robustness, that combined with high temperature and frequently thermal cycles, are speeding up wear out processes. Those effects are no longer addressable only at the process level. Consequently the deep sub-micron devices will require solutions which will imply several design levels, as system and logic, and new approaches called Design For Manufacturability (DFM) and Design For Reliability. The purpose of the above approaches is to bring in the early design stages the awareness of the device reliability and manufacturability, in order to introduce logic and system able to cope with the yield and reliability loss. The ITRS roadmap suggests the following research steps to integrate the design for manufacturability and reliability in the standard CAD automated design flow: i) The implementation of new analysis algorithms able to predict the system thermal behavior with the impact to the power and speed performances. ii) High level wear out models able to predict the mean time to failure of the system (MTTF). iii) Statistical performance analysis able to predict the impact of the process variation, both random and systematic. The new analysis tools have to be developed beside new logic and system strategies to cope with the future challenges, as for instance: i) Thermal management strategy that increase the reliability and life time of the devices acting to some tunable parameter,such as supply voltage or body bias. ii) Error detection logic able to interact with compensation techniques as Adaptive Supply Voltage ASV, Adaptive Body Bias ABB and error recovering, in order to increase yield and reliability. iii) architectures that are fundamentally resistant to variability, including locally asynchronous designs, redundancy, and error correcting signal encodings (ECC). The literature already features works addressing the prediction of the MTTF, papers focusing on thermal management in the general purpose chip, and publications on statistical performance analysis. In my Phd research activity, I investigated the need for thermal management in future embedded low-power Network On Chip (NoC) devices.I developed a thermal analysis library, that has been integrated in a NoC cycle accurate simulator and in a FPGA based NoC simulator. The results have shown that an accurate layout distribution can avoid the onset of hot-spot in a NoC chip. Furthermore the application of thermal management can reduce temperature and number of thermal cycles, increasing the systemreliability. Therefore the thesis advocates the need to integrate a thermal analysis in the first design stages for embedded NoC design. Later on, I focused my research in the development of statistical process variation analysis tool that is able to address both random and systematic variations. The tool was used to analyze the impact of self-timed asynchronous logic stages in an embedded microprocessor. As results we confirmed the capability of self-timed logic to increase the manufacturability and reliability. Furthermore we used the tool to investigate the suitability of low-swing techniques in the NoC system communication under process variations. In this case We discovered the superior robustness to systematic process variation of low-swing links, which shows a good response to compensation technique as ASV and ABB. Hence low-swing is a good alternative to the standard CMOS communication for power, speed, reliability and manufacturability. In summary my work proves the advantage of integrating a statistical process variation analysis tool in the first stages of the design flow.

Precision horticulture: application on apple orchards

Precision horticulture and spatial analysis applied to orchards are a growing and evolving part of precision agriculture technology. The aim of this discipline is to reduce production costs by monitoring and analysing orchard-derived information to improve crop performance in an environmentally sound manner. Georeferencing and geostatistical analysis coupled to point-specific data mining allow to devise and implement management decisions tailored within the single orchard. Potential applications range from the opportunity to verify in real time along the season the effectiveness of cultural practices to achieve the production targets in terms of fruit size, number, yield and, in a near future, fruit quality traits. These data will impact not only the pre-harvest but their effect will extend to the post-harvest sector of the fruit chain. Chapter 1 provides an updated overview on precision horticulture , while in Chapter 2 a preliminary spatial statistic analysis of the variability in apple orchards is provided before and after manual thinning; an interpretation of this variability and how it can be managed to maximize orchard performance is offered. Then in Chapter 3 a stratification of spatial data into management classes to interpret and manage spatial variation on the orchard is undertaken. An inverse model approach is also applied to verify whether the crop production explains environmental variation. In Chapter 4 an integration of the techniques adopted before is presented. A new key for reading the information gathered within the field is offered. The overall goal of this Dissertation was to probe into the feasibility, the desirability and the effectiveness of a precision approach to fruit growing, following the lines of other areas of agriculture that already adopt this management tool. As existing applications of precision horticulture already had shown, crop specificity is an important factor to be accounted for. This work focused on apple because of its importance in the area where the work was carried out, and worldwide.

Un modello multicriteriale di supporto alla pianificazione territoriale finalizzato alla classificazione del territorio rurale e alla caratterizzazione dell’Impronta Agro ambientale delle aree agricole periurbane.

La ricerca proposta si pone l’obiettivo di definire e sperimentare un metodo per un’articolata e sistematica lettura del territorio rurale, che, oltre ad ampliare la conoscenza del territorio, sia di supporto ai processi di pianificazione paesaggistici ed urbanistici e all’attuazione delle politiche agricole e di sviluppo rurale. Un’approfondita disamina dello stato dell’arte riguardante l’evoluzione del processo di urbanizzazione e le conseguenze dello stesso in Italia e in Europa, oltre che del quadro delle politiche territoriali locali nell’ambito del tema specifico dello spazio rurale e periurbano, hanno reso possibile, insieme a una dettagliata analisi delle principali metodologie di analisi territoriale presenti in letteratura, la determinazione del concept alla base della ricerca condotta. E’ stata sviluppata e testata una metodologia multicriteriale e multilivello per la lettura del territorio rurale sviluppata in ambiente GIS, che si avvale di algoritmi di clustering (quale l’algoritmo IsoCluster) e classificazione a massima verosimiglianza, focalizzando l’attenzione sugli spazi agricoli periurbani. Tale metodo si incentra sulla descrizione del territorio attraverso la lettura di diverse componenti dello stesso, quali quelle agro-ambientali e socio-economiche, ed opera una sintesi avvalendosi di una chiave interpretativa messa a punto allo scopo, l’Impronta Agroambientale (Agro-environmental Footprint - AEF), che si propone di quantificare il potenziale impatto degli spazi rurali sul sistema urbano. In particolare obiettivo di tale strumento è l’identificazione nel territorio extra-urbano di ambiti omogenei per caratteristiche attraverso una lettura del territorio a differenti scale (da quella territoriale a quella aziendale) al fine di giungere ad una sua classificazione e quindi alla definizione delle aree classificabili come “agricole periurbane”. La tesi propone la presentazione dell’architettura complessiva della metodologia e la descrizione dei livelli di analisi che la compongono oltre che la successiva sperimentazione e validazione della stessa attraverso un caso studio rappresentativo posto nella Pianura Padana (Italia).

Environmental influence on the phenotype: Morphological variation in human dentition

This work is about the role that environment plays in the production of evolutionary significant variations. It starts with an historical introduction about the concept of variation and the role of environment in its production. Then, I show how a lack of attention to these topics may lead to serious mistakes in data interpretation. A statistical re-analysis of published data on the effects of malnutrition on dental eruption, shows that what has been interpreted as an increase in the mean value, is actually linked to increase of variability. In Chapter 3 I present the topic of development as a link between variability and environmental influence, giving a review of the possible mechanisms by which development influences evolutionary dynamics. Chapter 4 is the core chapter of the thesis; I investigated the role of environment in the development of dental morphology. I used dental hypoplasia as a marker of stress, characterizing two groups. Comparing the morphology of upper molars in the two groups, three major results came out: (i) there is a significant effect of environmental stressors on the overall morphology of upper molars; (ii) the developmental response increases morphological variability of the stressed population; (iii) increase of variability is directional: stressed individuals have increased cusps dimensions and number. I also hypothesized the molecular mechanisms that could be responsible of the observed effects. In Chapter 5, I present future perspectives for developing this research. The direction of dental development response is the same direction of the trend in mammalian dental evolution. Since malnutrition triggers the developmental response, and this particular kind of stressor must have been very common in our class evolutionary history, I propose the possibility that environmental stress actively influenced mammals evolution. Moreover, I discuss the possibility of reconsidering the role of natural selection in the evolution of dental morphology.

Geomorphological and statistical analysis on Ravenna dune fields changes, based on Terrestrial Laser Technology

Coastal sand dunes represent a richness first of all in terms of defense from the sea storms waves and the saltwater ingression; moreover these morphological elements constitute an unique ecosystem of transition between the sea and the land environment. The research about dune system is a strong part of the coastal sciences, since the last century. Nowadays this branch have assumed even more importance for two reasons: on one side the born of brand new technologies, especially related to the Remote Sensing, have increased the researcher possibilities; on the other side the intense urbanization of these days have strongly limited the dune possibilities of development and fragmented what was remaining from the last century. This is particularly true in the Ravenna area, where the industrialization united to the touristic economy and an intense subsidence, have left only few dune ridges residual still active. In this work three different foredune ridges, along the Ravenna coast, have been studied with Laser Scanner technology. This research didn’t limit to analyze volume or spatial difference, but try also to find new ways and new features to monitor this environment. Moreover the author planned a series of test to validate data from Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS), with the additional aim of finalize a methodology to test 3D survey accuracy. Data acquired by TLS were then applied on one hand to test some brand new applications, such as Digital Shore Line Analysis System (DSAS) and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), to prove their efficacy in this field; on the other hand the author used TLS data to find any correlation with meteorological indexes (Forcing Factors), linked to sea and wind (Fryberger's method) applying statistical tools, such as the Principal Component Analysis (PCA).