9 resultados para spatio-temporal regressive model

em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna


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In this work I tried to explore many aspects of cognitive visual science, each one based on different academic fields, proposing mathematical models capable to reproduce both neuro-physiological and phenomenological results that were described in the recent literature. The structure of my thesis is mainly composed of three chapters, corresponding to the three main areas of research on which I focused my work. The results of each work put the basis for the following, and their ensemble form an homogeneous and large-scale survey on the spatio-temporal properties of the architecture of the visual cortex of mammals.

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Changepoint analysis is a well established area of statistical research, but in the context of spatio-temporal point processes it is as yet relatively unexplored. Some substantial differences with regard to standard changepoint analysis have to be taken into account: firstly, at every time point the datum is an irregular pattern of points; secondly, in real situations issues of spatial dependence between points and temporal dependence within time segments raise. Our motivating example consists of data concerning the monitoring and recovery of radioactive particles from Sandside beach, North of Scotland; there have been two major changes in the equipment used to detect the particles, representing known potential changepoints in the number of retrieved particles. In addition, offshore particle retrieval campaigns are believed may reduce the particle intensity onshore with an unknown temporal lag; in this latter case, the problem concerns multiple unknown changepoints. We therefore propose a Bayesian approach for detecting multiple changepoints in the intensity function of a spatio-temporal point process, allowing for spatial and temporal dependence within segments. We use Log-Gaussian Cox Processes, a very flexible class of models suitable for environmental applications that can be implemented using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), a computationally efficient alternative to Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods for approximating the posterior distribution of the parameters. Once the posterior curve is obtained, we propose a few methods for detecting significant change points. We present a simulation study, which consists in generating spatio-temporal point pattern series under several scenarios; the performance of the methods is assessed in terms of type I and II errors, detected changepoint locations and accuracy of the segment intensity estimates. We finally apply the above methods to the motivating dataset and find good and sensible results about the presence and quality of changes in the process.

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Movement analysis carried out in laboratory settings is a powerful, but costly solution since it requires dedicated instrumentation, space and personnel. Recently, new technologies such as the magnetic and inertial measurement units (MIMU) are becoming widely accepted as tools for the assessment of human motion in clinical and research settings. They are relatively easy-to-use and potentially suitable for estimating gait kinematic features, including spatio-temporal parameters. The objective of this thesis regards the development and testing in clinical contexts of robust MIMUs based methods for assessing gait spatio-temporal parameters applicable across a number of different pathological gait patterns. First, considering the need of a solution the least obtrusive as possible, the validity of the single unit based approach was explored. A comparative evaluation of the performance of various methods reported in the literature for estimating gait temporal parameters using a single unit attached to the trunk first in normal gait and then in different pathological gait conditions was performed. Then, the second part of the research headed towards the development of new methods for estimating gait spatio-temporal parameters using shank worn MIMUs on different pathological subjects groups. In addition to the conventional gait parameters, new methods for estimating the changes of the direction of progression were explored. Finally, a new hardware solution and relevant methodology for estimating inter-feet distance during walking was proposed. Results of the technical validation of the proposed methods at different walking speeds and along different paths against a gold standard were reported and showed that the use of two MIMUs attached to the lower limbs associated with a robust method guarantee a much higher accuracy in determining gait spatio-temporal parameters. In conclusion, the proposed methods could be reliably applied to various abnormal gaits obtaining in some cases a comparable level of accuracy with respect to normal gait.

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In this work a multidisciplinary study of the December 26th, 2004 Sumatra earthquake has been carried out. We have investigated both the effect of the earthquake on the Earth rotation and the stress field variations associated with the seismic event. In the first part of the work we have quantified the effects of a water mass redistribution associated with the propagation of a tsunami wave on the Earth’s pole path and on the length-of-day (LOD) and applied our modeling results to the tsunami following the 2004 giant Sumatra earthquake. We compared the result of our simulations on the instantaneous rotational axis variations with some preliminary instrumental evidences on the pole path perturbation (which has not been confirmed yet) registered just after the occurrence of the earthquake, which showed a step-like discontinuity that cannot be attributed to the effect of a seismic dislocation. Our results show that the perturbation induced by the tsunami on the instantaneous rotational pole is characterized by a step-like discontinuity, which is compatible with the observations but its magnitude turns out to be almost one hundred times smaller than the detected one. The LOD variation induced by the water mass redistribution turns out to be not significant because the total effect is smaller than current measurements uncertainties. In the second part of this work of thesis we modeled the coseismic and postseismic stress evolution following the Sumatra earthquake. By means of a semi-analytical, viscoelastic, spherical model of global postseismic deformation and a numerical finite-element approach, we performed an analysis of the stress diffusion following the earthquake in the near and far field of the mainshock source. We evaluated the stress changes due to the Sumatra earthquake by projecting the Coulomb stress over the sequence of aftershocks taken from various catalogues in a time window spanning about two years and finally analyzed the spatio-temporal pattern. The analysis performed with the semi-analytical and the finite-element modeling gives a complex picture of the stress diffusion, in the area under study, after the Sumatra earthquake. We believe that the results obtained with the analytical method suffer heavily for the restrictions imposed, on the hypocentral depths of the aftershocks, in order to obtain the convergence of the harmonic series of the stress components. On the contrary we imposed no constraints on the numerical method so we expect that the results obtained give a more realistic description of the stress variations pattern.

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The interaction between atmosphere–land–ocean–biosphere systems plays a prominent role on the atmospheric dynamics and on the convective rainfall distribution over the West Africa monsoon area during the boreal summer. In particular, the initialization of convective systems in the Sub – Sahelian region has been directly linked to soil moisture heterogeneities identified as the major triggering, development and propagation of convective systems. The present study aims at investigating African monsoon large scale convective dynamics and rainfall diurnal cycle through an exploration of the hypothesis behind the mechanisms of a monsoon phenomenon as an emergence of a collective dynamics of many propagating convective systems. Such hypothesis is based on the existence of an internal self – regulation mechanism among the various components. To achieve these results a multiple analysis was performed based on remote sensed rainfall dataset, and global and regional modelling data for a period of 5 seasons: 2004 - 2008. Satellite rainfall data and convective occurrence variability were studied for assessing typical spatio – temporal signatures and characteristics with an emphasis to the diurnal cycle footprint. A global model and regional model simulation datasets, specifically developed for this analysis and based on Regional Atmospheric Modelling System – RAMS, have been analysed. Results from numerical model datasets highlight the evidence of a synchronization between the destabilization of the convective boundary layer and rainfall occurrence due to the solar radiation forcing through the latent heat release. This supports the conclusion that the studied interacting systems are associated with a process of mutual adjustment of rhythms. Furthermore, this rainfall internal coherence was studied in relation to the West African Heat Low pressure system, which has a prominent role in the large scale summer variability over the Mediterranean area since it is acting as one of dynamic link between sub tropical and midlatitudes variability.

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Premise: In the literary works of our anthropological and cultural imagination, the various languages and the different discursive practices are not necessarily quoted, expressly alluded to or declared through clear expressive mechanisms; instead, they rather constitute a substratum, a background, now consolidated, which with irony and intertextuality shines through the thematic and formal elements of each text. The various contaminations, hybridizations and promptings that we find in the expressive forms, the rhetorical procedures and the linguistic and thematic choices of post-modern literary texts are shaped as fluid and familiar categories. Exchanges and passages are no longer only allowed but also inevitable; the post-modern imagination is made up of an agglomeration of discourses that are no longer really separable, built up from texts that blend and quote one another, composing, each with its own specificities, the great family of the cultural products of our social scenario. A literary work, therefore, is not only a whole phenomenon, delimited hic et nunc by a beginning and an ending, but is a fragment of that complex, dense and boundless network that is given by the continual interrelations between human forms of communication and symbolization. The research hypothesis: A vision is delineated of comparative literature as a discipline attentive to the social contexts in which texts take shape and move and to the media-type consistency that literary phenomena inevitably take on. Hence literature is seen as an open systematicity that chooses to be contaminated by other languages and other discursive practices of an imagination that is more than ever polymorphic and irregular. Inside this interpretative framework the aim is to focus the analysis on the relationship that postmodern literature establishes with advertising discourse. On one side post-modern literature is inserted in the world of communication, loudly asserting the blending and reciprocal contamination of literary modes with media ones, absorbing their languages and signification practices, translating them now into thematic nuclei, motifs and sub-motifs and now into formal expedients and new narrative choices; on the other side advertising is chosen as a signification practice of the media universe, which since the 1960s has actively contributed to shaping the dynamics of our socio-cultural scenarios, in terms which are just as important as those of other discursive practices. Advertising has always been a form of communication and symbolization that draws on the collective imagination – myths, actors and values – turning them into specific narrative programs for its own texts. Hence the aim is to interpret and analyze this relationship both from a strictly thematic perspective – and therefore trying to understand what literature speaks about when it speaks about advertising, and seeking advertising quotations in post-modern fiction – and from a formal perspective, with a search for parallels and discordances between the rhetorical procedures, the languages and the verifiable stylistic choices in the texts of the two different signification practices. The analysis method chosen, for the purpose of constructive multiplication of the perspectives, aims to approach the analytical processes of semiotics, applying, when possible, the instruments of the latter, in order to highlight the thematic and formal relationships between literature and advertising. The corpus: The corpus of the literary texts is made up of various novels and, although attention is focused on the post-modern period, there will also be ineludible quotations from essential authors that with their works prompted various reflections: H. De Balzac, Zola, Fitzgerald, Joyce, Calvino, etc… However, the analysis focuses the corpus on three authors: Don DeLillo, Martin Amis and Aldo Nove, and in particular the followings novels: “Americana” (1971) and “Underworld” (1999) by Don DeLillo, “Money” (1984) by Martin Amis and “Woobinda and other stories without a happy ending” (1996) and “Superwoobinda” (1998) by Aldo Nove. The corpus selection is restricted to these novels for two fundamental reasons: 1. assuming parameters of spatio-temporal evaluation, the texts are representative of different socio-cultural contexts and collective imaginations (from the masterly glimpses of American life by DeLillo, to the examples of contemporary Italian life by Nove, down to the English imagination of Amis) and of different historical moments (the 1970s of DeLillo’s Americana, the 1980s of Amis, down to the 1990s of Nove, decades often used as criteria of division of postmodernism into phases); 2. adopting a perspective of strictly thematic analysis, as mentioned in the research hypothesis, the variations and the constants in the novels (thematic nuclei, topoi, images and narrative developments) frequently speak of advertising and inside the narrative plot they affirm various expressions and realizations of it: value ones, thematic ones, textual ones, urban ones, etc… In these novels the themes and the processes of signification of advertising discourse pervade time, space and the relationships that the narrator character builds around him. We are looking at “particle-characters” whose endless facets attest the influence and contamination of advertising in a large part of the narrative developments of the plot: on everyday life, on the processes of acquisition and encoding of the reality, on ideological and cultural baggage, on the relationships and interchanges with the other characters, etc… Often the characters are victims of the implacable consequentiality of the advertising mechanism, since the latter gets the upper hand over the usual processes of communication, which are overwhelmed by it, wittingly or unwittingly (for example: disturbing openings in which the protagonist kills his or her parents on the basis of a spot, former advertisers that live life codifying it through the commercial mechanisms of products, sons and daughters of advertisers that as children instead of playing outside for whole nights saw tapes of spots.) Hence the analysis arises from the text and aims to show how much the developments and the narrative plots of the novels encode, elaborate and recount the myths, the values and the narrative programs of advertising discourse, transforming them into novel components in their own right. And also starting from the text a socio-cultural reference context is delineated, a collective imagination that is different, now geographically, now historically, and from comparison between them the aim is to deduce the constants, the similarities and the variations in the relationship between literature and advertising.

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L’obiettivo di questo lavoro di tesi è di ottenere un’analisi climatica giornaliera ad alta risoluzione della precipitazione sul territorio del nord Italia realizzata con tecniche di controllo statistico, di analisi e di strumenti di descrizione dei risultati presentati nella recente letteratura. A tal fine, sono stati utilizzati i dati dell’Archivio ARCIS. In seguito alle fasi di controllo qualità, omogeneità e sincronicità i dati sono stati utilizzati per realizzare un’analisi giornaliera su grigliato regolare a 10 km di risoluzione utile alla rappresentazione della variabilità spazio-temporale della precipitazione sul Nord Italia per il periodo 1961-2005. I risultati di tale analisi mettono in evidenza dei valori medi di precipitazione annuale abbastanza intensi sulla parte centrale dell’arco Alpino, con massimi (oltre 2000 mm) sull’estremità orientale e sull’Appennino Ligure. Valori minimi (500 – 600 mm) sono osservati lungo le aree prospicienti il fiume Po, in Val d’Aosta ed in Alto Adige. La corrispondente analisi del trend temporale indica la presenza di lievi cali statisticamente significativi solo in aree limitate del territorio. In coerenza con questi risultati, la variazione nel tempo della precipitazione annuale mediata su tutto il territorio mette in evidenza un’intensa variabilità decennale, ma solo una lieve flessione lineare sull’intero periodo. Il numero annuo di giorni piovosi ed il 90° percentile della precipitazione giornaliera presentano invece trend lineari un po’ più pronunciati. In particolare, sul periodo considerato si nota un calo del numero di giorni piovosi su gran parte del territorio e solo su alcune aree del territorio un aumento dell’intensità del 90° percentile, sia a scala annuale che stagionale. Nell’ultima parte di questo lavoro è stato realizzato uno studio della relazione fra la forzante climatica e l’evoluzione della morfologia dell’Appennino Emiliano-Romagnolo. I risultati mostrano che a parità di quota, di pendenza e di litologia, la franosità è influenzata dalle precipitazioni.

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Procedures for quantitative walking analysis include the assessment of body segment movements within defined gait cycles. Recently, methods to track human body motion using inertial measurement units have been suggested. It is not known if these techniques can be readily transferred to clinical measurement situations. This work investigates the aspects necessary for one inertial measurement unit mounted on the lower back to track orientation, and determine spatio-temporal features of gait outside the confines of a conventional gait laboratory. Apparent limitations of different inertial sensors can be overcome by fusing data using methods such as a Kalman filter. The benefits of optimizing such a filter for the type of motion are unknown. 3D accelerations and 3D angular velocities were collected for 18 healthy subjects while treadmill walking. Optimization of Kalman filter parameters improved pitch and roll angle estimates when compared to angles derived using stereophotogrammetry. A Weighted Fourier Linear Combiner method for estimating 3D orientation angles by constructing an analytical representation of angular velocities and allowing drift free integration is also presented. When tested this method provided accurate estimates of 3D orientation when compared to stereophotogrammetry. Methods to determine spatio-temporal features from lower trunk accelerations generally require knowledge of sensor alignment. A method was developed to estimate the instants of initial and final ground contact from accelerations measured by a waist mounted inertial device without rigorous alignment. A continuous wavelet transform method was used to filter and differentiate the signal and derive estimates of initial and final contact times. The technique was tested with data recorded for both healthy and pathologic (hemiplegia and Parkinson’s disease) subjects and validated using an instrumented mat. The results show that a single inertial measurement unit can assist whole body gait assessment however further investigation is required to understand altered gait timing in some pathological subjects.

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Thermal effects are rapidly gaining importance in nanometer heterogeneous integrated systems. Increased power density, coupled with spatio-temporal variability of chip workload, cause lateral and vertical temperature non-uniformities (variations) in the chip structure. The assumption of an uniform temperature for a large circuit leads to inaccurate determination of key design parameters. To improve design quality, we need precise estimation of temperature at detailed spatial resolution which is very computationally intensive. Consequently, thermal analysis of the designs needs to be done at multiple levels of granularity. To further investigate the flow of chip/package thermal analysis we exploit the Intel Single Chip Cloud Computer (SCC) and propose a methodology for calibration of SCC on-die temperature sensors. We also develop an infrastructure for online monitoring of SCC temperature sensor readings and SCC power consumption. Having the thermal simulation tool in hand, we propose MiMAPT, an approach for analyzing delay, power and temperature in digital integrated circuits. MiMAPT integrates seamlessly into industrial Front-end and Back-end chip design flows. It accounts for temperature non-uniformities and self-heating while performing analysis. Furthermore, we extend the temperature variation aware analysis of designs to 3D MPSoCs with Wide-I/O DRAM. We improve the DRAM refresh power by considering the lateral and vertical temperature variations in the 3D structure and adapting the per-DRAM-bank refresh period accordingly. We develop an advanced virtual platform which models the performance, power, and thermal behavior of a 3D-integrated MPSoC with Wide-I/O DRAMs in detail. Moving towards real-world multi-core heterogeneous SoC designs, a reconfigurable heterogeneous platform (ZYNQ) is exploited to further study the performance and energy efficiency of various CPU-accelerator data sharing methods in heterogeneous hardware architectures. A complete hardware accelerator featuring clusters of OpenRISC CPUs, with dynamic address remapping capability is built and verified on a real hardware.