Methods for Clearance Influence Analysis in Planar and Spatial Mechanisms

This doctoral dissertation presents a new method to asses the influence of clearancein the kinematic pairs on the configuration of planar and spatial mechanisms. The subject has been widely investigated in both past and present scientific literature, and is approached in different ways: a static/kinetostatic way, which looks for the clearance take-up due to the external loads on the mechanism; a probabilistic way, which expresses clearance-due displacements using probability density functions; a dynamic way, which evaluates dynamic effects like the actual forces in the pairs caused by impacts, or the consequent vibrations. This dissertation presents a new method to approach the problem of clearance. The problem is studied from a purely kinematic perspective. With reference to a given mechanism configuration, the pose (position and orientation) error of the mechanism link of interest is expressed as a vector function of the degrees of freedom introduced in each pair by clearance: the presence of clearance in a kinematic pair, in facts, causes the actual pair to have more degrees of freedom than the theoretical clearance-free one. The clearance-due degrees of freedom are bounded by the pair geometry. A proper modelling of clearance-affected pairs allows expressing such bounding through analytical functions. It is then possible to study the problem as a maximization problem, where a continuous function (the pose error of the link of interest) subject to some constraints (the analytical functions bounding clearance- due degrees of freedom) has to be maximize. Revolute, prismatic, cylindrical, and spherical clearance-affected pairs have been analytically modelled; with reference to mechanisms involving such pairs, the solution to the maximization problem has been obtained in a closed form.

Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.

Modelling spillover effects in spatial stochastic frontier analysis

In the last two decades, authors have begun to expand classical stochastic frontier (SF) models in order to include also some spatial components. Indeed, firms tend to concentrate in clusters, taking advantage of positive agglomeration externalities due to cooperation, shared ideas and emulation, resulting in increased productivity levels. Until now scholars have introduced spatial dependence into SF models following two different paths: evaluating global and local spatial spillover effects related to the frontier or considering spatial cross-sectional correlation in the inefficiency and/or in the error term. In this thesis, we extend the current literature on spatial SF models introducing two novel specifications for panel data. First, besides considering productivity and input spillovers, we introduce the possibility to evaluate the specific spatial effects arising from each inefficiency determinant through their spatial lags aiming to capture also knowledge spillovers. Second, we develop a very comprehensive spatial SF model that includes both frontier and error-based spillovers in order to consider four different sources of spatial dependence (i.e. productivity and input spillovers related to the frontier function and behavioural and environmental correlation associated with the two error terms). Finally, we test the finite sample properties of the two proposed spatial SF models through simulations, and we provide two empirical applications to the Italian accommodation and agricultural sectors. From a practical perspective, policymakers, based on results from these models, can rely on precise, detailed and distinct insights on the spillover effects affecting the productive performance of neighbouring spatial units obtaining interesting and relevant suggestions for policy decisions.