Sviluppo di un approccio congiunto fuzzy-Bayesiano per l'analisi e la modellizzazione degli ecosistemi: applicazione ad ecosistemi marini costieri.

Nell’attuale contesto di aumento degli impatti antropici e di “Global Climate Change” emerge la necessità di comprenderne i possibili effetti di questi sugli ecosistemi inquadrati come fruitori di servizi e funzioni imprescindibili sui quali si basano intere tessiture economiche e sociali. Lo studio previsionale degli ecosistemi si scontra con l’elevata complessità di questi ultimi in luogo di una altrettanto elevata scarsità di osservazioni integrate. L’approccio modellistico appare il più adatto all’analisi delle dinamiche complesse degli ecosistemi ed alla contestualizzazione complessa di risultati sperimentali ed osservazioni empiriche. L’approccio riduzionista-deterministico solitamente utilizzato nell’implementazione di modelli non si è però sin qui dimostrato in grado di raggiungere i livelli di complessità più elevati all’interno della struttura eco sistemica. La componente che meglio descrive la complessità ecosistemica è quella biotica in virtù dell’elevata dipendenza dalle altre componenti e dalle loro interazioni. In questo lavoro di tesi viene proposto un approccio modellistico stocastico basato sull’utilizzo di un compilatore naive Bayes operante in ambiente fuzzy. L’utilizzo congiunto di logica fuzzy e approccio naive Bayes è utile al processa mento del livello di complessità e conseguentemente incertezza insito negli ecosistemi. I modelli generativi ottenuti, chiamati Fuzzy Bayesian Ecological Model(FBEM) appaiono in grado di modellizare gli stati eco sistemici in funzione dell’ elevato numero di interazioni che entrano in gioco nella determinazione degli stati degli ecosistemi. Modelli FBEM sono stati utilizzati per comprendere il rischio ambientale per habitat intertidale di spiagge sabbiose in caso di eventi di flooding costiero previsti nell’arco di tempo 2010-2100. L’applicazione è stata effettuata all’interno del progetto EU “Theseus” per il quale i modelli FBEM sono stati utilizzati anche per una simulazione a lungo termine e per il calcolo dei tipping point specifici dell’habitat secondo eventi di flooding di diversa intensità.

An interdisciplinary analysis of obesity: theory and empirical evidence

The dissertation is structured in three parts. The first part compares US and EU agricultural policies since the end of WWII. There is not enough evidence for claiming that agricultural support has a negative impact on obesity trends. I discuss the possibility of an exchange in best practices to fight obesity. There are relevant economic, societal and legal differences between the US and the EU. However, partnerships against obesity are welcomed. The second part presents a socio-ecological model of the determinants of obesity. I employ an interdisciplinary model because it captures the simultaneous influence of several variables. Obesity is an interaction of pre-birth, primary and secondary socialization factors. To test the significance of each factor, I use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health. I compare the average body mass index across different populations. Differences in means are statistically significant. In the last part I use the National Survey of Children Health. I analyze the effect that family characteristics, built environment, cultural norms and individual factors have on the body mass index (BMI). I use Ordered Probit models and I calculate the marginal effects. I use State and ethnicity fixed effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity. I find that southern US States tend have on average a higher probability of being obese. On the ethnicity side, White Americans have a lower BMI respect to Black Americans, Hispanics and American Indians Native Islanders; being Asian is associated with a lower probability of being obese. In neighborhoods where trust level and safety perception are higher, children are less overweight and obese. Similar results are shown for higher level of parental income and education. Breastfeeding has a negative impact. Higher values of measures of behavioral disorders have a positive and significant impact on obesity, as predicted by the theory.

The school environment as a teacher. The role of space and place in enhancing ecological literacy and social competence development in children and young people

Can space and place foster child development, and in particular social competence and ecological literacy? If yes, how can space and place do that? This study shows that the answer to the first question is positive and then tries to explain the way space and place can make a difference. The thesis begins with the review of literature from different disciplines – child development and child psychology, education, environmental psychology, architecture and landscape architecture. Some bridges among such disciplines are created and in some cases the ideas from the different areas of research merge: thus, this is an interdisciplinary study. The interdisciplinary knowledge from these disciplines is translated into a range of design suggestions that can foster the development of social competence and ecological literacy. Using scientific knowledge from different disciplines is a way of introducing forms of evidence into the development of design criteria. However, the definition of design criteria also has to pass through the study of a series of school buildings and un-built projects: case studies can give a positive contribution to the criteria because examples and good practices can help “translating” the theoretical knowledge into design ideas and illustrations. To do that, the different case studies have to be assessed in relation to the various themes that emerged in the literature review. Finally, research by design can be used to help define the illustrated design criteria: based on all the background knowledge that has been built, the role of the architect is to provide a series of different design solutions that can give answers to the different “questions” emerged in the literature review.

Social inclusion of vulnerable groups through participatory and emancipatory approaches. Implementing active citizenship and socially innovative actions in the framework of civil & human rights model of disability

The research hypothesis of the thesis is that “an open participation in the co-creation of the services and environments, makes life easier for vulnerable groups”; assuming that the participatory and emancipatory approaches are processes of possible actions and changes aimed at facilitating people’s lives. The adoption of these approaches is put forward as the common denominator of social innovative practices that supporting inclusive processes allow a shift from a medical model to a civil and human rights approach to disability. The theoretical basis of this assumption finds support in many principles of Inclusive Education and the main focus of the hypothesis of research is on participation and emancipation as approaches aimed at facing emerging and existing problems related to inclusion. The framework of reference for the research is represented by the perspectives adopted by several international documents concerning policies and interventions to promote and support the leadership and participation of vulnerable groups. In the first part an in-depth analysis of the main academic publications on the central themes of the thesis has been carried out. After investigating the framework of reference, the analysis focuses on the main tools of participatory and emancipatory approaches, which are able to connect with the concepts of active citizenship and social innovation. In the second part two case studies concerning participatory and emancipatory approaches in the areas of concern are presented and analyzed as example of the improvement of inclusion, through the involvement and participation of persons with disability. The research has been developed using a holistic and interdisciplinary approach, aimed at providing a knowledge-base that fosters a shift from a situation of passivity and care towards a new scenario based on the person’s commitment in the elaboration of his/her own project of life.