Predictability in Social Science, The statistical mechanics approach.

The subject of this work concerns the study of the immigration phenomenon, with emphasis on the aspects related to the integration of an immigrant population in a hosting one. Aim of this work is to show the forecasting ability of a recent finding where the behavior of integration quantifiers was analyzed and investigated with a mathematical model of statistical physics origins (a generalization of the monomer dimer model). After providing a detailed literature review of the model, we show that not only such a model is able to identify the social mechanism that drives a particular integration process, but it also provides correct forecast. The research reported here proves that the proposed model of integration and its forecast framework are simple and effective tools to reduce uncertainties about how integration phenomena emerge and how they are likely to develop in response to increased migration levels in the future.

Novel investigation methods in Computational Social Dynamics and Complex Systems

In this thesis the evolution of the techno-social systems analysis methods will be reported, through the explanation of the various research experience directly faced. The first case presented is a research based on data mining of a dataset of words association named Human Brain Cloud: validation will be faced and, also through a non-trivial modeling, a better understanding of language properties will be presented. Then, a real complex system experiment will be introduced: the WideNoise experiment in the context of the EveryAware european project. The project and the experiment course will be illustrated and data analysis will be displayed. Then the Experimental Tribe platform for social computation will be introduced . It has been conceived to help researchers in the implementation of web experiments, and aims also to catalyze the cumulative growth of experimental methodologies and the standardization of tools cited above. In the last part, three other research experience which already took place on the Experimental Tribe platform will be discussed in detail, from the design of the experiment to the analysis of the results and, eventually, to the modeling of the systems involved. The experiments are: CityRace, about the measurement of human traffic-facing strategies; laPENSOcosì, aiming to unveil the political opinion structure; AirProbe, implemented again in the EveryAware project framework, which consisted in monitoring air quality opinion shift of a community informed about local air pollution. At the end, the evolution of the technosocial systems investigation methods shall emerge together with the opportunities and the threats offered by this new scientific path.

Networking: the "making of" social networks. A closer look at the process and antecedents of some resourcing-oriented behaviors in organizations.

Social networks are one of the “hot” themes in people’s life and contemporary social research. Considering our “embeddedness” in a thick web of social relations is a study perspective that could unveil a number of explanations of how people may manage their personal and social resources. Looking at people’s behaviors of building and managing their social networks, seems to be an effective way to find some possible rationalization about how to help people getting the best from their resources . The main aim of this dissertation is to give a closer look at the role of networking behaviors. Antecedents, motivations, different steps and measures about networking behaviors and outcomes are analyzed and discussed. Results seem to confirm, in a different setting and time perspective, that networking behaviors include different types and goals that change over time. Effects of networking behaviors seem to find empirical confirmation through social network analysis methods. Both personality and situational self-efficacy seem to predict networking behaviors. Different types of motivational drivers seem to be related to diverse networking behaviors.