A partial dependence factorial analysis to deal with selection bias in observational studis

This thesis presents a creative and practical approach to dealing with the problem of selection bias. Selection bias may be the most important vexing problem in program evaluation or in any line of research that attempts to assert causality. Some of the greatest minds in economics and statistics have scrutinized the problem of selection bias, with the resulting approaches – Rubin’s Potential Outcome Approach(Rosenbaum and Rubin,1983; Rubin, 1991,2001,2004) or Heckman’s Selection model (Heckman, 1979) – being widely accepted and used as the best fixes. These solutions to the bias that arises in particular from self selection are imperfect, and many researchers, when feasible, reserve their strongest causal inference for data from experimental rather than observational studies. The innovative aspect of this thesis is to propose a data transformation that allows measuring and testing in an automatic and multivariate way the presence of selection bias. The approach involves the construction of a multi-dimensional conditional space of the X matrix in which the bias associated with the treatment assignment has been eliminated. Specifically, we propose the use of a partial dependence analysis of the X-space as a tool for investigating the dependence relationship between a set of observable pre-treatment categorical covariates X and a treatment indicator variable T, in order to obtain a measure of bias according to their dependence structure. The measure of selection bias is then expressed in terms of inertia due to the dependence between X and T that has been eliminated. Given the measure of selection bias, we propose a multivariate test of imbalance in order to check if the detected bias is significant, by using the asymptotical distribution of inertia due to T (Estadella et al. 2005) , and by preserving the multivariate nature of data. Further, we propose the use of a clustering procedure as a tool to find groups of comparable units on which estimate local causal effects, and the use of the multivariate test of imbalance as a stopping rule in choosing the best cluster solution set. The method is non parametric, it does not call for modeling the data, based on some underlying theory or assumption about the selection process, but instead it calls for using the existing variability within the data and letting the data to speak. The idea of proposing this multivariate approach to measure selection bias and test balance comes from the consideration that in applied research all aspects of multivariate balance, not represented in the univariate variable- by-variable summaries, are ignored. The first part contains an introduction to evaluation methods as part of public and private decision process and a review of the literature of evaluation methods. The attention is focused on Rubin Potential Outcome Approach, matching methods, and briefly on Heckman’s Selection Model. The second part focuses on some resulting limitations of conventional methods, with particular attention to the problem of how testing in the correct way balancing. The third part contains the original contribution proposed , a simulation study that allows to check the performance of the method for a given dependence setting and an application to a real data set. Finally, we discuss, conclude and explain our future perspectives.

Language and Embodiment: sensory-motor and linguistic-social experience. Evidence on sentence comprehension

In this work I address the study of language comprehension in an “embodied” framework. Firstly I show behavioral evidence supporting the idea that language modulates the motor system in a specific way, both at a proximal level (sensibility to the effectors) and at the distal level (sensibility to the goal of the action in which the single motor acts are inserted). I will present two studies in which the method is basically the same: we manipulated the linguistic stimuli (the kind of sentence: hand action vs. foot action vs. mouth action) and the effector by which participants had to respond (hand vs. foot vs. mouth; dominant hand vs. non-dominant hand). Response times analyses showed a specific modulation depending on the kind of sentence: participants were facilitated in the task execution (sentence sensibility judgment) when the effector they had to use to respond was the same to which the sentences referred. Namely, during language comprehension a pre-activation of the motor system seems to take place. This activation is analogous (even if less intense) to the one detectable when we practically execute the action described by the sentence. Beyond this effector specific modulation, we also found an effect of the goal suggested by the sentence. That is, the hand effector was pre-activated not only by hand-action-related sentences, but also by sentences describing mouth actions, consistently with the fact that to execute an action on an object with the mouth we firstly have to bring it to the mouth with the hand. After reviewing the evidence on simulation specificity directly referring to the body (for instance, the kind of the effector activated by the language), I focus on the specific properties of the object to which the words refer, particularly on the weight. In this case the hypothesis to test was if both lifting movement perception and lifting movement execution are modulated by language comprehension. We used behavioral and kinematics methods, and we manipulated the linguistic stimuli (the kind of sentence: the lifting of heavy objects vs. the lifting of light objects). To study the movement perception we measured the correlations between the weight of the objects lifted by an actor (heavy objects vs. light objects) and the esteems provided by the participants. To study the movement execution we measured kinematics parameters variance (velocity, acceleration, time to the first peak of velocity) during the actual lifting of objects (heavy objects vs. light objects). Both kinds of measures revealed that language had a specific effect on the motor system, both at a perceptive and at a motoric level. Finally, I address the issue of the abstract words. Different studies in the “embodied” framework tried to explain the meaning of abstract words The limit of these works is that they account only for subsets of phenomena, so results are difficult to generalize. We tried to circumvent this problem by contrasting transitive verbs (abstract and concrete) and nouns (abstract and concrete) in different combinations. The behavioral study was conducted both with German and Italian participants, as the two languages are syntactically different. We found that response times were faster for both the compatible pairs (concrete verb + concrete noun; abstract verb + abstract noun) than for the mixed ones. Interestingly, for the mixed combinations analyses showed a modulation due to the specific language (German vs. Italian): when the concrete word precedes the abstract one responses were faster, regardless of the word grammatical class. Results are discussed in the framework of current views on abstract words. They highlight the important role of developmental and social aspects of language use, and confirm theories assigning a crucial role to both sensorimotor and linguistic experience for abstract words.

Bioactive and toxic compounds in different foodstuffs: analytical techniques and sensory analysis

Foods that provide medical and health benefits or have a role in disease risk prevention are termed functional foods. The functionality of functional foods is derived from bioactive compounds that are extranutritional constituents present in small quantities in food. Bioactive components include a range of chemical compounds with varying structures such as carotenoids, flavonoids, plant sterols, omega-3 fatty acids (n-3), allyl and diallyl sulfides, indoles (benzopyrroles), and phenolic acids. The increasing consumer interest in natural bioactive compounds has brought about a rise in demand for these kinds of compounds and, in parallel, an increasing number of scientific studies have this type of substance as main topic. The principal aim of this PhD research project was the study of different bioactive and toxic compounds in several natural matrices. To achieve this goal, chromatographic, spectroscopic and sensorial analysis were performed. This manuscript reports the main results obtained in the six activities briefly summarized as follows: • SECTION I: the influence of conventional packaging on lipid oxidation of pasta was evaluated in egg spaghetti. • SECTION II: the effect of the storage at different temperatures of virgin olive oil was monitored by peroxide value, fatty acid activity, OSI test and sensory analysis. • SECTION III: the glucosinolate and phenolic content of 37 rocket salad accessions were evaluated, comparing Eruca sativa and Diplotaxis tenuifolia species. Sensory analysis and the influence of the phenolic and glucosinolate composition on sensory attributes of rocket salads has been also studied. • SECTION IV: ten buckwheat honeys were characterised on the basis of their pollen, physicochemical, phenolic and volatile composition. • SECTION V: the polyphenolic fraction, anthocyanins and other polar compounds, the antioxidant capacity and the anty-hyperlipemic action of the aqueous extract of Hibiscus sabdariffa were achieved. • SECTION VI: the optimization of a normal phase high pressure liquid chromatography–fluorescence detection method for the quantitation of flavanols and procyanidins in cocoa powder and chocolate samples was performed.

Local home bias: Theory and new empirical evidence from Italy

This thesis examines the literature on local home bias, i.e. investor preference towards geographically nearby stocks, and investigates the role of firm’s visibility, profitability, and opacity in explaining such behavior. While firm’s visibility is expected to proxy for the behavioral root originating such a preference, firm’s profitability and opacity are expected to capture the informational one. I find that less visible, and more profitable and opaque firms, conditionally to the demand, benefit from being headquartered in regions characterized by a scarcity of listed firms (local supply of stocks). Specifically, research estimates suggest that firms headquartered in regions with a poor supply of stocks would be worth i) 11 percent more if non-visible, non-profitable and non-opaque; ii) 16 percent more if profitable; and iii) 28 percent more if both profitable and opaque. Overall, as these features are able to explain most, albeit not all, of the local home bias effect, I reasonably argue and then assess that most of the preference for local is determined by a successful attempt to exploit local information advantage (60 percent), while the rest is determined by a mere (irrational) feeling of familiarity with the local firm (40 percent). Several and significant methodological, theoretical, and practical implications come out.

Development of instrumental and sensory analytical methods of food obtained by traditional and emerging technologies

The consumer demand for natural, minimally processed, fresh like and functional food has lead to an increasing interest in emerging technologies. The aim of this PhD project was to study three innovative food processing technologies currently used in the food sector. Ultrasound-assisted freezing, vacuum impregnation and pulsed electric field have been investigated through laboratory scale systems and semi-industrial pilot plants. Furthermore, analytical and sensory techniques have been developed to evaluate the quality of food and vegetable matrix obtained by traditional and emerging processes. Ultrasound was found to be a valuable technique to improve the freezing process of potatoes, anticipating the beginning of the nucleation process, mainly when applied during the supercooling phase. A study of the effects of pulsed electric fields on phenol and enzymatic profile of melon juice has been realized and the statistical treatment of data was carried out through a response surface method. Next, flavour enrichment of apple sticks has been realized applying different techniques, as atmospheric, vacuum, ultrasound technologies and their combinations. The second section of the thesis deals with the development of analytical methods for the discrimination and quantification of phenol compounds in vegetable matrix, as chestnut bark extracts and olive mill waste water. The management of waste disposal in mill sector has been approached with the aim of reducing the amount of waste, and at the same time recovering valuable by-products, to be used in different industrial sectors. Finally, the sensory analysis of boiled potatoes has been carried out through the development of a quantitative descriptive procedure for the study of Italian and Mexican potato varieties. An update on flavour development in fresh and cooked potatoes has been realized and a sensory glossary, including general and specific definitions related to organic products, used in the European project Ecropolis, has been drafted.

Fish quality assessment through the application of chemico-physical, sensory and microbiological analyses

The quality of fish products is indispensably linked to the freshness of the raw material modulated by appropriate manipulation and storage conditions, specially the storage temperature after catch. The purpose of the research presented in this thesis, which was largely conducted in the context of a research project funded by Italian Ministry of Agricultural, Food and Forestry Policies (MIPAAF), concerned the evaluation of the freshness of farmed and wild fish species, in relation to different storage conditions, under ice (0°C) or at refrigeration temperature (4°C). Several specimens of different species, bogue (Boops boops), red mullet (Mullus barbatus), sea bream (Sparus aurata) and sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax), during storage, under the different temperature conditions adopted, have been examined. The assessed control parameters were physical (texture, through the use of a dynamometer; visual quality using a computer vision system (CVS)), chemical (through footprint metabolomics 1H-NMR) and sensory (Quality Index Method (QIM). Microbiological determinations were also carried out on the species of hake (Merluccius merluccius). In general obtained results confirmed that the temperature of manipulation/conservation is a key factor in maintaining fish freshness. NMR spectroscopy showed to be able to quantify and evaluate the kinetics for unselected compounds during fish degradation, even a posteriori. This can be suitable for the development of new parameters related to quality and freshness. The development of physical methods, particularly the image analysis performed by computer vision system (CVS), for the evaluation of fish degradation, is very promising. Among CVS parameters, skin colour, presence and distribution of gill mucus, and eye shape modification evidenced a high sensibility for the estimation of fish quality loss, as a function of the adopted storage conditions. Particularly the eye concavity index detected on fish eye showed a high positive correlation with total QIM score.

Sensory and instrumental profiling of apples: a new tool for quality assessment

Food suppliers currently measure apple quality considering basic pomological descriptors. Sensory analysis is expensive, does not permit to analyse many samples, and cannot be implemented for measuring quality properties in real time. However, sensory analysis is the best way to precisely describe food eating quality, since it is able to define, measure, and explain what is really perceivable by human senses and using a language that closely reflects the consumers’ perception. On the basis of such observations, we developed a detailed protocol for apple sensory profiling by descriptive sensory analysis and instrumental measurements. The collected sensory data were validated by applying rigorous scientific criteria for sensory analysis. The method was then applied for studying sensory properties of apples and their changes in relation to different pre- and post-harvest factors affecting fruit quality, and demonstrated to be able to discriminate fruit varieties and to highlight differences in terms of sensory properties. The instrumental measurements confirmed such results. Moreover, the correlation between sensory and instrumental data was studied, and a new effective approach was defined for the reliable prediction of sensory properties by instrumental characterisation. It is therefore possible to propose the application of this sensory-instrumental tool to all the stakeholders involved in apple production and marketing, to have a reliable description of apple fruit quality.