Risk analysis of tractor rollover in the normal operation in field

Tractor rollover represent a primary cause of death or serious injury in agriculture and despite the mandatory Roll-Over Protective Structures (ROPS), that reduced the number of injuries, tractor accidents are still of great concern. Because of their versatility and wide use many studies on safety are concerned with the stability of tractors, but they often prefer controlled tests or laboratory tests. The evaluation of tractors working in field, instead, is a very complex issue because the rollover could be influenced by the interaction among operator, tractor and environment. Recent studies are oriented towards the evaluation of the actual working conditions developing prototypes for driver assistance and data acquisition. Currently these devices are produced and sold by manufacturers. A warning device was assessed in this study with the aim to evaluate its performance and to collect data on different variables influencing the dynamics of tractors in field by monitoring continuously the working conditions of tractors operating at the experimental farm of the Bologna University. The device consists of accelerometers, gyroscope, GSM/GPRS, GPS for geo-referencing and a transceiver for the automatic recognition of tractor-connected equipment. A microprocessor processes data and provides information, through a dedicated algorithm requiring data on the geometry of the tested tractor, on the level of risk for the operator in terms of probable loss of stability and suggests corrective measures to reduce the potential instability of the tractor.

Dynamics of coastal aquifers: data-driven forecasting and risk analysis

This work is focused on the study of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers, and in particular on the realization of conceptual schemes to evaluate the risk associated with it. Saltwater intrusion depends on different natural and anthropic factors, both presenting a strong aleatory behaviour, that should be considered for an optimal management of the territory and water resources. Given the uncertainty of problem parameters, the risk associated with salinization needs to be cast in a probabilistic framework. On the basis of a widely adopted sharp interface formulation, key hydrogeological problem parameters are modeled as random variables, and global sensitivity analysis is used to determine their influence on the position of saltwater interface. The analyses presented in this work rely on an efficient model reduction technique, based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion, able to combine the best description of the model without great computational burden. When the assumptions of classical analytical models are not respected, and this occurs several times in the applications to real cases of study, as in the area analyzed in the present work, one can adopt data-driven techniques, based on the analysis of the data characterizing the system under study. It follows that a model can be defined on the basis of connections between the system state variables, with only a limited number of assumptions about the "physical" behaviour of the system.

Ricerca di Escherichia coli produttori di verocitotossine e definizione di obiettivi di performance nella produzione primaria di alimenti di origine animale

La presenza di Escherichia coli produttori di verocitotossine (VTEC o STEC) rappresenta una tra le più importanti cause di malattia alimentare attualmente presenti in Europa. La sua presenza negli allevamenti di animali destinati alla produzione di alimenti rappresenta un importante rischio per la salute del consumatore. In conseguenza di comuni contaminazioni che si realizzano nel corso della macellazione, della mungitura i VTEC possono essere presenti nelle carni e nel latte e rappresentano un grave rischio se la preparazione per il consumo o i processi di lavorazione non comportano trattamenti in grado d’inattivarli (es. carni crude o poco cotte, latte non pastorizzato, formaggi freschi a latte crudo). La contaminazione dei campi coltivati conseguente alla dispersione di letame o attraverso acque contaminate può veicolare questi stipiti che sono normalmente albergati nell’intestino di ruminanti (domestici e selvatici) e anche prodotti vegetali consumati crudi, succhi e perfino sementi sono stati implicati in gravi episodi di malattia con gravi manifestazioni enteriche e complicazioni in grado di causare quadri patologici gravi e anche la morte. Stipiti di VTEC patogeni ingeriti con gli alimenti possono causare sintomi gastroenterici, con diarrea acquosa o emorragica (nel 50% dei casi), crampi addominali, febbre lieve e in una percentuale più bassa nausea e vomito. In alcuni casi (circa 5-10%) l’infezione gastroenterica si complica con manifestazioni tossiemiche caratterizzate da Sindrome Emolitico Uremica (SEU o HUS) con anemia emolitica, insufficienza renale grave e coinvolgimento neurologico o con una porpora trombotica trombocitopenica. Il tasso di mortalità dei pazienti che presentano l’infezione da E. coli è inferiore all’1%. I dati forniti dall’ECDC sulle infezioni alimentari nel periodo 2006-2010 hanno evidenziato un trend in leggero aumento del numero di infezioni a partire dal 2007. L’obiettivo degli studi condotti è quello di valutare la prevalenza ed il comportamento dei VTEC per una analisi del rischio più approfondita.

Model reduction of stochastic groundwater flow and transport processes

This work presents a comprehensive methodology for the reduction of analytical or numerical stochastic models characterized by uncertain input parameters or boundary conditions. The technique, based on the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) theory, represents a versatile solution to solve direct or inverse problems related to propagation of uncertainty. The potentiality of the methodology is assessed investigating different applicative contexts related to groundwater flow and transport scenarios, such as global sensitivity analysis, risk analysis and model calibration. This is achieved by implementing a numerical code, developed in the MATLAB environment, presented here in its main features and tested with literature examples. The procedure has been conceived under flexibility and efficiency criteria in order to ensure its adaptability to different fields of engineering; it has been applied to different case studies related to flow and transport in porous media. Each application is associated with innovative elements such as (i) new analytical formulations describing motion and displacement of non-Newtonian fluids in porous media, (ii) application of global sensitivity analysis to a high-complexity numerical model inspired by a real case of risk of radionuclide migration in the subsurface environment, and (iii) development of a novel sensitivity-based strategy for parameter calibration and experiment design in laboratory scale tracer transport.

Agrofood chain analysis: production, commercialisation and consumption of healthy food for population at risk of poverty in Italy

Italy registers a fast increase of low income population. Academics and policy makers consider income inequalities as a key determinant for low or inadequate healthy food consumption. Thus the objective is to understand how to overcome the agrofood chain barriers towards healthy food production, commercialisation and consumption for population at risk of poverty (ROP) in Italy. The study adopts a market oriented food chain approach, focusing the research ambit on ROP consumers, processing industries and retailers. The empirical investigation adopts a qualitative methodology with an explorative approach. The actors are investigated through 4 focus groups for consumers and carrying out 27 face to face semi-structured interviews for industries and retailers’ representatives. The results achieved provide the perceptions of each actor integrated into an overall chain approach. The analysis shows that all agrofood actors lack of an adequate level of knowledge towards healthy food definition. Food industries and retailers also show poor awareness about ROP consumers’ segment. In addition they perceive that the high costs for producing healthy food conflict with the low economic performances expected from ROP consumers’ segment. These aspects induce a scarce interest in investing on commercialisation strategies for healthy food for ROP consumers. Further ROP consumers show other notable barriers to adopt healthy diets caused, among others, by a personal strong negative attitude and lack of motivation. The personal barriers are also negatively influenced by several external socio-economic factors. The solutions to overcome the barriers shall rely on the improvement of the agrofood chain internal relations to identify successful strategies for increasing interest on low cost healthy food. In particular the focus should be on improved collaboration on innovation adoption and marketing strategies, considering ROP consumers’ preferences and needs. An external political intervention is instead necessary to fill the knowledge and regulations’ gaps on healthy food issues.