Multiple testing in spatial epidemiology: a Bayesian approach

In this work we aim to propose a new approach for preliminary epidemiological studies on Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) collected in many spatial regions. A preliminary study on SMRs aims to formulate hypotheses to be investigated via individual epidemiological studies that avoid bias carried on by aggregated analyses. Starting from collecting disease counts and calculating expected disease counts by means of reference population disease rates, in each area an SMR is derived as the MLE under the Poisson assumption on each observation. Such estimators have high standard errors in small areas, i.e. where the expected count is low either because of the low population underlying the area or the rarity of the disease under study. Disease mapping models and other techniques for screening disease rates among the map aiming to detect anomalies and possible high-risk areas have been proposed in literature according to the classic and the Bayesian paradigm. Our proposal is approaching this issue by a decision-oriented method, which focus on multiple testing control, without however leaving the preliminary study perspective that an analysis on SMR indicators is asked to. We implement the control of the FDR, a quantity largely used to address multiple comparisons problems in the eld of microarray data analysis but which is not usually employed in disease mapping. Controlling the FDR means providing an estimate of the FDR for a set of rejected null hypotheses. The small areas issue arises diculties in applying traditional methods for FDR estimation, that are usually based only on the p-values knowledge (Benjamini and Hochberg, 1995; Storey, 2003). Tests evaluated by a traditional p-value provide weak power in small areas, where the expected number of disease cases is small. Moreover tests cannot be assumed as independent when spatial correlation between SMRs is expected, neither they are identical distributed when population underlying the map is heterogeneous. The Bayesian paradigm oers a way to overcome the inappropriateness of p-values based methods. Another peculiarity of the present work is to propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for FDR estimation in testing many null hypothesis of absence of risk.We will use concepts of Bayesian models for disease mapping, referring in particular to the Besag York and Mollié model (1991) often used in practice for its exible prior assumption on the risks distribution across regions. The borrowing of strength between prior and likelihood typical of a hierarchical Bayesian model takes the advantage of evaluating a singular test (i.e. a test in a singular area) by means of all observations in the map under study, rather than just by means of the singular observation. This allows to improve the power test in small areas and addressing more appropriately the spatial correlation issue that suggests that relative risks are closer in spatially contiguous regions. The proposed model aims to estimate the FDR by means of the MCMC estimated posterior probabilities b i's of the null hypothesis (absence of risk) for each area. An estimate of the expected FDR conditional on data (\FDR) can be calculated in any set of b i's relative to areas declared at high-risk (where thenull hypothesis is rejected) by averaging the b i's themselves. The\FDR can be used to provide an easy decision rule for selecting high-risk areas, i.e. selecting as many as possible areas such that the\FDR is non-lower than a prexed value; we call them\FDR based decision (or selection) rules. The sensitivity and specicity of such rule depend on the accuracy of the FDR estimate, the over-estimation of FDR causing a loss of power and the under-estimation of FDR producing a loss of specicity. Moreover, our model has the interesting feature of still being able to provide an estimate of relative risk values as in the Besag York and Mollié model (1991). A simulation study to evaluate the model performance in FDR estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the decision rule, and goodness of estimation of relative risks, was set up. We chose a real map from which we generated several spatial scenarios whose counts of disease vary according to the spatial correlation degree, the size areas, the number of areas where the null hypothesis is true and the risk level in the latter areas. In summarizing simulation results we will always consider the FDR estimation in sets constituted by all b i's selected lower than a threshold t. We will show graphs of the\FDR and the true FDR (known by simulation) plotted against a threshold t to assess the FDR estimation. Varying the threshold we can learn which FDR values can be accurately estimated by the practitioner willing to apply the model (by the closeness between\FDR and true FDR). By plotting the calculated sensitivity and specicity (both known by simulation) vs the\FDR we can check the sensitivity and specicity of the corresponding\FDR based decision rules. For investigating the over-smoothing level of relative risk estimates we will compare box-plots of such estimates in high-risk areas (known by simulation), obtained by both our model and the classic Besag York Mollié model. All the summary tools are worked out for all simulated scenarios (in total 54 scenarios). Results show that FDR is well estimated (in the worst case we get an overestimation, hence a conservative FDR control) in small areas, low risk levels and spatially correlated risks scenarios, that are our primary aims. In such scenarios we have good estimates of the FDR for all values less or equal than 0.10. The sensitivity of\FDR based decision rules is generally low but specicity is high. In such scenario the use of\FDR = 0:05 or\FDR = 0:10 based selection rule can be suggested. In cases where the number of true alternative hypotheses (number of true high-risk areas) is small, also FDR = 0:15 values are well estimated, and \FDR = 0:15 based decision rules gains power maintaining an high specicity. On the other hand, in non-small areas and non-small risk level scenarios the FDR is under-estimated unless for very small values of it (much lower than 0.05); this resulting in a loss of specicity of a\FDR = 0:05 based decision rule. In such scenario\FDR = 0:05 or, even worse,\FDR = 0:1 based decision rules cannot be suggested because the true FDR is actually much higher. As regards the relative risk estimation, our model achieves almost the same results of the classic Besag York Molliè model. For this reason, our model is interesting for its ability to perform both the estimation of relative risk values and the FDR control, except for non-small areas and large risk level scenarios. A case of study is nally presented to show how the method can be used in epidemiology.

Influenza del sistema immunogenetico KIR nell'alloreattività Natural Killer nel trapianto di rene

Kidney transplantation is the best treatment option for the restoration of excretory and endocrine kidney function in patients with end-stage renal disease. The success of the transplant is linked to the genetic compatibility between donor and recipient, and upon progress in surgery and immunosuppressive therapy. Numerous studies have established the importance of innate immunity in transplantation tolerance, in particular natural killer (NK) cells represent a population of cells involved in defense against infectious agents and tumor cells. NK cells express on their surface the Killer-cell Immunoglobulin-like Receptors (KIR) which, by recognizing and binding to MHC class I antigens, prevent the killing of autologous cells. In solid organ transplantation context, and in particular the kidney, recent studies show some correlation between the incompatibility KIR / HLA and outcome of transplantation so as to represent an interesting perspective, especially as regards setting of immunosuppressive therapy. The purpose of this study was therefore to assess whether the incompatibility between recipient KIR receptors and HLA class I ligands of the donor could be a useful predictor in order to improve the survival of the transplanted kidney and also to select patients who might benefit of a reduced regimen. One hundred and thirteen renal transplant patients from 1999 to 2005 were enrolled. Genomic DNA was extracted for each of them and their donors and genotyping of HLA A, B, C and 14 KIR genes was carried out. Data analysis was conducted on two case-control studies: one aimed at assessing the outcome of acute rejection and the other to assess the long term transplant outcome. The results showed that two genes, KIR2DS1 and KIR3DS1, are associated with the development of acute rejection (p = 0.02 and p = 0.05, respectively). The presence of the KIR2DS3 gene is associated with a better performance of serum creatinine and glomerular filtration rate (MDRD) over time (4 and 5 years after transplantation, p <0.05), while in the presence of ligand, the serum creatinine and MDRD trend seems to get worse in the long term. The analysis performed on the population, according to whether there was deterioration of renal function or not in the long term, showed that the absence of the KIR2DL1 gene is strongly associated with an increase of 20% of the creatinine value at 5 years, with a relative risk to having a greater creatinine level than the median 5-year equal to 2.7 95% (95% CI: 1.7788 - 2.6631). Finally, the presence of a kidney resulting negative for HLA-A3 / A11, compared to a positive result, in patients with KIR3DL2, showed a relative risk of having a serum creatinine above the median at 5 years after transplantation of 0.6609 (95% CI: 0.4529 -0.9643), suggesting a protective effect given to the absence of this ligand.

Dati preliminari dello studio multicentrico caso-controllo "Grave danno epatico acuto indotto da farmaci"

Il danno epatico indotto dall'assunzione di farmaci viene comunemente indicato con il termine inglese DILI (Drug-Induced Liver Injury). Il paracetamolo rappresenta la causa più comune di DILI, seguito da antibiotici, FANS e farmaci antitubercolari. In particolare, i FANS sono una delle classi di farmaci maggiormente impiegate in terapia. Numerosi case report descrivono pazienti che hanno sviluppato danno epatico fatale durante il trattamento con FANS; molti di questi farmaci sono stati ritirati dal commercio in seguito a gravi reazioni avverse a carico del fegato. L'ultimo segnale di epatotossicità indotto da FANS è associato alla nimesulide; in alcuni paesi europei come la Finlandia, la Spagna e l'Irlanda, la nimesulide è stata sospesa dalla commercializzazione perché associata ad un'alta frequenza di epatotossicità. Sulla base dei dati disponibili fino a questo momento, l'Agenzia Europea dei Medicinali (EMA) ha recentemente concluso che i benefici del farmaco superano i rischi; un possibile aumento del rischio di epatotossicità associato a nimesulide rimane tuttavia una discussione aperta di cui ancora molto si dibatte. Tra le altre classi di farmaci che possono causare danno epatico acuto la cui incidenza tuttavia non è sempre ben definita sono gli antibiotici, quali amoxicillina e macrolidi, le statine e gli antidepressivi.Obiettivo dello studio è stato quello di determinare il rischio relativo di danno epatico indotto da farmaci con una prevalenza d'uso nella popolazione italiana maggiore o uguale al 6%. E’ stato disegnato uno studio caso controllo sviluppato intervistando pazienti ricoverati in reparti di diversi ospedali d’Italia. Il nostro studio ha messo in evidenza che il danno epatico da farmaci riguarda numerose classi farmacologiche e che la segnalazione di tali reazioni risulta essere statisticamente significativa per numerosi principi attivi. I dati preliminari hanno mostrato un valore di odds ratio significativo statisticamente per la nimesulide, i FANS, alcuni antibiotici come i macrolidi e il paracetamolo.

Tecniche investigative ed aspetti criminologici nelle indagini giudiziarie relative ai suicidi ed alle morti equivoche. L'autopsia psicologica

La ricerca è strutturata in due sezioni: nella prima, dopo una premessa storica sul suicidio ed una lettura dei relativi dati statistici italiani integrata dall’analisi delle principali teorie sociologiche e dei principali aspetti psicopatologici e di psicologia clinica, vengono esaminati i risultati forniti da numerosi studi scientifici sul tema complementare delle morti equivoche, con particolare riferimento alle categorie a rischio rappresentate da anziani, carcerati, piloti di aerei, soggetti dediti a pratiche di asfissia autoerotica o roulette russa, istigatori delle forze di polizia e suicida stradali. Successivamente sono esaminati gli aspetti investigativi e medico-legali in tema di suicidi e morti equivoche con particolare riferimento alla tecnica dell’autopsia psicologica analizzandone le origini ed evoluzioni, il suo ambito di utilizzo ed i relativi aspetti metodologici. Nella seconda sezione del lavoro il tema dei suicidi e delle morti equivoche viene approfondito grazie all’apporto di professionisti di discipline diverse esperti in materia di autopsia psicologica ed indagini giudiziarie. A questi è stata presentata, con l’utilizzo della tecnica qualitativa “Dephi, una iniziale ipotesi di protocollo di autopsia psicologica, con le relative modalità applicative, al fine di procedere ad una sua revisione ed adattamento alle esigenze operative italiane grazie alle specifiche esperienze professionali e multidisciplinari maturate dagli esperti. I dati raccolti hanno permesso di giungere alla formulazione di un protocollo di autopsia psicologica, basato sulla elaborazione di domande generali, specifiche e conclusive, a risposta aperta, che possono esser formulate, secondo le modalità previste, alle persone affettivamente significative per la vittima nei confronti della quale si intende procedere con tale strumento investigativo.