Early Warning For Large Earthquakes: Observations, Models and Real-Time Data Analysis

This thesis is a collection of works focused on the topic of Earthquake Early Warning, with a special attention to large magnitude events. The topic is addressed from different points of view and the structure of the thesis reflects the variety of the aspects which have been analyzed. The first part is dedicated to the giant, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The main features of the rupture process are first discussed. The earthquake is then used as a case study to test the feasibility Early Warning methodologies for very large events. Limitations of the standard approaches for large events arise in this chapter. The difficulties are related to the real-time magnitude estimate from the first few seconds of recorded signal. An evolutionary strategy for the real-time magnitude estimate is proposed and applied to the single Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In the second part of the thesis a larger number of earthquakes is analyzed, including small, moderate and large events. Starting from the measurement of two Early Warning parameters, the behavior of small and large earthquakes in the initial portion of recorded signals is investigated. The aim is to understand whether small and large earthquakes can be distinguished from the initial stage of their rupture process. A physical model and a plausible interpretation to justify the observations are proposed. The third part of the thesis is focused on practical, real-time approaches for the rapid identification of the potentially damaged zone during a seismic event. Two different approaches for the rapid prediction of the damage area are proposed and tested. The first one is a threshold-based method which uses traditional seismic data. Then an innovative approach using continuous, GPS data is explored. Both strategies improve the prediction of large scale effects of strong earthquakes.

New approaches to open problems in gene expression microarray data

In the past decade, the advent of efficient genome sequencing tools and high-throughput experimental biotechnology has lead to enormous progress in the life science. Among the most important innovations is the microarray tecnology. It allows to quantify the expression for thousands of genes simultaneously by measurin the hybridization from a tissue of interest to probes on a small glass or plastic slide. The characteristics of these data include a fair amount of random noise, a predictor dimension in the thousand, and a sample noise in the dozens. One of the most exciting areas to which microarray technology has been applied is the challenge of deciphering complex disease such as cancer. In these studies, samples are taken from two or more groups of individuals with heterogeneous phenotypes, pathologies, or clinical outcomes. these samples are hybridized to microarrays in an effort to find a small number of genes which are strongly correlated with the group of individuals. Eventhough today methods to analyse the data are welle developed and close to reach a standard organization (through the effort of preposed International project like Microarray Gene Expression Data -MGED- Society [1]) it is not unfrequant to stumble in a clinician's question that do not have a compelling statistical method that could permit to answer it.The contribution of this dissertation in deciphering disease regards the development of new approaches aiming at handle open problems posed by clinicians in handle specific experimental designs. In Chapter 1 starting from a biological necessary introduction, we revise the microarray tecnologies and all the important steps that involve an experiment from the production of the array, to the quality controls ending with preprocessing steps that will be used into the data analysis in the rest of the dissertation. While in Chapter 2 a critical review of standard analysis methods are provided stressing most of problems that In Chapter 3 is introduced a method to adress the issue of unbalanced design of miacroarray experiments. In microarray experiments, experimental design is a crucial starting-point for obtaining reasonable results. In a two-class problem, an equal or similar number of samples it should be collected between the two classes. However in some cases, e.g. rare pathologies, the approach to be taken is less evident. We propose to address this issue by applying a modified version of SAM [2]. MultiSAM consists in a reiterated application of a SAM analysis, comparing the less populated class (LPC) with 1,000 random samplings of the same size from the more populated class (MPC) A list of the differentially expressed genes is generated for each SAM application. After 1,000 reiterations, each single probe given a "score" ranging from 0 to 1,000 based on its recurrence in the 1,000 lists as differentially expressed. The performance of MultiSAM was compared to the performance of SAM and LIMMA [3] over two simulated data sets via beta and exponential distribution. The results of all three algorithms over low- noise data sets seems acceptable However, on a real unbalanced two-channel data set reagardin Chronic Lymphocitic Leukemia, LIMMA finds no significant probe, SAM finds 23 significantly changed probes but cannot separate the two classes, while MultiSAM finds 122 probes with score >300 and separates the data into two clusters by hierarchical clustering. We also report extra-assay validation in terms of differentially expressed genes Although standard algorithms perform well over low-noise simulated data sets, multi-SAM seems to be the only one able to reveal subtle differences in gene expression profiles on real unbalanced data. In Chapter 4 a method to adress similarities evaluation in a three-class prblem by means of Relevance Vector Machine [4] is described. In fact, looking at microarray data in a prognostic and diagnostic clinical framework, not only differences could have a crucial role. In some cases similarities can give useful and, sometimes even more, important information. The goal, given three classes, could be to establish, with a certain level of confidence, if the third one is similar to the first or the second one. In this work we show that Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) [2] could be a possible solutions to the limitation of standard supervised classification. In fact, RVM offers many advantages compared, for example, with his well-known precursor (Support Vector Machine - SVM [3]). Among these advantages, the estimate of posterior probability of class membership represents a key feature to address the similarity issue. This is a highly important, but often overlooked, option of any practical pattern recognition system. We focused on Tumor-Grade-three-class problem, so we have 67 samples of grade I (G1), 54 samples of grade 3 (G3) and 100 samples of grade 2 (G2). The goal is to find a model able to separate G1 from G3, then evaluate the third class G2 as test-set to obtain the probability for samples of G2 to be member of class G1 or class G3. The analysis showed that breast cancer samples of grade II have a molecular profile more similar to breast cancer samples of grade I. Looking at the literature this result have been guessed, but no measure of significance was gived before.

Analyzing the dependence structure of microarray data: a copula–based approach

The main aim of this Ph.D. dissertation is the study of clustering dependent data by means of copula functions with particular emphasis on microarray data. Copula functions are a popular multivariate modeling tool in each field where the multivariate dependence is of great interest and their use in clustering has not been still investigated. The first part of this work contains the review of the literature of clustering methods, copula functions and microarray experiments. The attention focuses on the K–means (Hartigan, 1975; Hartigan and Wong, 1979), the hierarchical (Everitt, 1974) and the model–based (Fraley and Raftery, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007) clustering techniques because their performance is compared. Then, the probabilistic interpretation of the Sklar’s theorem (Sklar’s, 1959), the estimation methods for copulas like the Inference for Margins (Joe and Xu, 1996) and the Archimedean and Elliptical copula families are presented. In the end, applications of clustering methods and copulas to the genetic and microarray experiments are highlighted. The second part contains the original contribution proposed. A simulation study is performed in order to evaluate the performance of the K–means and the hierarchical bottom–up clustering methods in identifying clusters according to the dependence structure of the data generating process. Different simulations are performed by varying different conditions (e.g., the kind of margins (distinct, overlapping and nested) and the value of the dependence parameter ) and the results are evaluated by means of different measures of performance. In light of the simulation results and of the limits of the two investigated clustering methods, a new clustering algorithm based on copula functions (‘CoClust’ in brief) is proposed. The basic idea, the iterative procedure of the CoClust and the description of the written R functions with their output are given. The CoClust algorithm is tested on simulated data (by varying the number of clusters, the copula models, the dependence parameter value and the degree of overlap of margins) and is compared with the performance of model–based clustering by using different measures of performance, like the percentage of well–identified number of clusters and the not rejection percentage of H0 on . It is shown that the CoClust algorithm allows to overcome all observed limits of the other investigated clustering techniques and is able to identify clusters according to the dependence structure of the data independently of the degree of overlap of margins and the strength of the dependence. The CoClust uses a criterion based on the maximized log–likelihood function of the copula and can virtually account for any possible dependence relationship between observations. Many peculiar characteristics are shown for the CoClust, e.g. its capability of identifying the true number of clusters and the fact that it does not require a starting classification. Finally, the CoClust algorithm is applied to the real microarray data of Hedenfalk et al. (2001) both to the gene expressions observed in three different cancer samples and to the columns (tumor samples) of the whole data matrix.

Body ares networks for human motor assessment

Healthcare, Human Computer Interfaces (HCI), Security and Biometry are the most promising application scenario directly involved in the Body Area Networks (BANs) evolution. Both wearable devices and sensors directly integrated in garments envision a word in which each of us is supervised by an invisible assistant monitoring our health and daily-life activities. New opportunities are enabled because improvements in sensors miniaturization and transmission efficiency of the wireless protocols, that achieved the integration of high computational power aboard independent, energy-autonomous, small form factor devices. Application’s purposes are various: (I) data collection to achieve off-line knowledge discovery; (II) user notification of his/her activities or in case a danger occurs; (III) biofeedback rehabilitation; (IV) remote alarm activation in case the subject need assistance; (V) introduction of a more natural interaction with the surrounding computerized environment; (VI) users identification by physiological or behavioral characteristics. Telemedicine and mHealth [1] are two of the leading concepts directly related to healthcare. The capability to borne unobtrusiveness objects supports users’ autonomy. A new sense of freedom is shown to the user, not only supported by a psychological help but a real safety improvement. Furthermore, medical community aims the introduction of new devices to innovate patient treatments. In particular, the extension of the ambulatory analysis in the real life scenario by proving continuous acquisition. The wide diffusion of emerging wellness portable equipment extended the usability of wearable devices also for fitness and training by monitoring user performance on the working task. The learning of the right execution techniques related to work, sport, music can be supported by an electronic trainer furnishing the adequate aid. HCIs made real the concept of Ubiquitous, Pervasive Computing and Calm Technology introduced in the 1988 by Marc Weiser and John Seeley Brown. They promotes the creation of pervasive environments, enhancing the human experience. Context aware, adaptive and proactive environments serve and help people by becoming sensitive and reactive to their presence, since electronics is ubiquitous and deployed everywhere. In this thesis we pay attention to the integration of all the aspects involved in a BAN development. Starting from the choice of sensors we design the node, configure the radio network, implement real-time data analysis and provide a feedback to the user. We present algorithms to be implemented in wearable assistant for posture and gait analysis and to provide assistance on different walking conditions, preventing falls. Our aim, expressed by the idea to contribute at the development of a non proprietary solutions, driven us to integrate commercial and standard solutions in our devices. We use sensors available on the market and avoided to design specialized sensors in ASIC technologies. We employ standard radio protocol and open source projects when it was achieved. The specific contributions of the PhD research activities are presented and discussed in the following. • We have designed and build several wireless sensor node providing both sensing and actuator capability making the focus on the flexibility, small form factor and low power consumption. The key idea was to develop a simple and general purpose architecture for rapid analysis, prototyping and deployment of BAN solutions. Two different sensing units are integrated: kinematic (3D accelerometer and 3D gyroscopes) and kinetic (foot-floor contact pressure forces). Two kind of feedbacks were implemented: audio and vibrotactile. • Since the system built is a suitable platform for testing and measuring the features and the constraints of a sensor network (radio communication, network protocols, power consumption and autonomy), we made a comparison between Bluetooth and ZigBee performance in terms of throughput and energy efficiency. Test in the field evaluate the usability in the fall detection scenario. • To prove the flexibility of the architecture designed, we have implemented a wearable system for human posture rehabilitation. The application was developed in conjunction with biomedical engineers who provided the audio-algorithms to furnish a biofeedback to the user about his/her stability. • We explored off-line gait analysis of collected data, developing an algorithm to detect foot inclination in the sagittal plane, during walk. • In collaboration with the Wearable Lab – ETH, Zurich, we developed an algorithm to monitor the user during several walking condition where the user carry a load. The remainder of the thesis is organized as follows. Chapter I gives an overview about Body Area Networks (BANs), illustrating the relevant features of this technology and the key challenges still open. It concludes with a short list of the real solutions and prototypes proposed by academic research and manufacturers. The domain of the posture and gait analysis, the methodologies, and the technologies used to provide real-time feedback on detected events, are illustrated in Chapter II. The Chapter III and IV, respectively, shown BANs developed with the purpose to detect fall and monitor the gait taking advantage by two inertial measurement unit and baropodometric insoles. Chapter V reports an audio-biofeedback system to improve balance on the information provided by the use centre of mass. A walking assistant based on the KNN classifier to detect walking alteration on load carriage, is described in Chapter VI.

Sistemi riconfigurabili a basso consumo per applicazioni di monitoraggio distribuito

The term Ambient Intelligence (AmI) refers to a vision on the future of the information society where smart, electronic environment are sensitive and responsive to the presence of people and their activities (Context awareness). In an ambient intelligence world, devices work in concert to support people in carrying out their everyday life activities, tasks and rituals in an easy, natural way using information and intelligence that is hidden in the network connecting these devices. This promotes the creation of pervasive environments improving the quality of life of the occupants and enhancing the human experience. AmI stems from the convergence of three key technologies: ubiquitous computing, ubiquitous communication and natural interfaces. Ambient intelligent systems are heterogeneous and require an excellent cooperation between several hardware/software technologies and disciplines, including signal processing, networking and protocols, embedded systems, information management, and distributed algorithms. Since a large amount of fixed and mobile sensors embedded is deployed into the environment, the Wireless Sensor Networks is one of the most relevant enabling technologies for AmI. WSN are complex systems made up of a number of sensor nodes which can be deployed in a target area to sense physical phenomena and communicate with other nodes and base stations. These simple devices typically embed a low power computational unit (microcontrollers, FPGAs etc.), a wireless communication unit, one or more sensors and a some form of energy supply (either batteries or energy scavenger modules). WNS promises of revolutionizing the interactions between the real physical worlds and human beings. Low-cost, low-computational power, low energy consumption and small size are characteristics that must be taken into consideration when designing and dealing with WSNs. To fully exploit the potential of distributed sensing approaches, a set of challengesmust be addressed. Sensor nodes are inherently resource-constrained systems with very low power consumption and small size requirements which enables than to reduce the interference on the physical phenomena sensed and to allow easy and low-cost deployment. They have limited processing speed,storage capacity and communication bandwidth that must be efficiently used to increase the degree of local ”understanding” of the observed phenomena. A particular case of sensor nodes are video sensors. This topic holds strong interest for a wide range of contexts such as military, security, robotics and most recently consumer applications. Vision sensors are extremely effective for medium to long-range sensing because vision provides rich information to human operators. However, image sensors generate a huge amount of data, whichmust be heavily processed before it is transmitted due to the scarce bandwidth capability of radio interfaces. In particular, in video-surveillance, it has been shown that source-side compression is mandatory due to limited bandwidth and delay constraints. Moreover, there is an ample opportunity for performing higher-level processing functions, such as object recognition that has the potential to drastically reduce the required bandwidth (e.g. by transmitting compressed images only when something ‘interesting‘ is detected). The energy cost of image processing must however be carefully minimized. Imaging could play and plays an important role in sensing devices for ambient intelligence. Computer vision can for instance be used for recognising persons and objects and recognising behaviour such as illness and rioting. Having a wireless camera as a camera mote opens the way for distributed scene analysis. More eyes see more than one and a camera system that can observe a scene from multiple directions would be able to overcome occlusion problems and could describe objects in their true 3D appearance. In real-time, these approaches are a recently opened field of research. In this thesis we pay attention to the realities of hardware/software technologies and the design needed to realize systems for distributed monitoring, attempting to propose solutions on open issues and filling the gap between AmI scenarios and hardware reality. The physical implementation of an individual wireless node is constrained by three important metrics which are outlined below. Despite that the design of the sensor network and its sensor nodes is strictly application dependent, a number of constraints should almost always be considered. Among them: • Small form factor to reduce nodes intrusiveness. • Low power consumption to reduce battery size and to extend nodes lifetime. • Low cost for a widespread diffusion. These limitations typically result in the adoption of low power, low cost devices such as low powermicrocontrollers with few kilobytes of RAMand tenth of kilobytes of program memory with whomonly simple data processing algorithms can be implemented. However the overall computational power of the WNS can be very large since the network presents a high degree of parallelism that can be exploited through the adoption of ad-hoc techniques. Furthermore through the fusion of information from the dense mesh of sensors even complex phenomena can be monitored. In this dissertation we present our results in building several AmI applications suitable for a WSN implementation. The work can be divided into two main areas:Low Power Video Sensor Node and Video Processing Alghoritm and Multimodal Surveillance . Low Power Video Sensor Nodes and Video Processing Alghoritms In comparison to scalar sensors, such as temperature, pressure, humidity, velocity, and acceleration sensors, vision sensors generate much higher bandwidth data due to the two-dimensional nature of their pixel array. We have tackled all the constraints listed above and have proposed solutions to overcome the current WSNlimits for Video sensor node. We have designed and developed wireless video sensor nodes focusing on the small size and the flexibility of reuse in different applications. The video nodes target a different design point: the portability (on-board power supply, wireless communication), a scanty power budget (500mW),while still providing a prominent level of intelligence, namely sophisticated classification algorithmand high level of reconfigurability. We developed two different video sensor node: The device architecture of the first one is based on a low-cost low-power FPGA+microcontroller system-on-chip. The second one is based on ARM9 processor. Both systems designed within the above mentioned power envelope could operate in a continuous fashion with Li-Polymer battery pack and solar panel. Novel low power low cost video sensor nodes which, in contrast to sensors that just watch the world, are capable of comprehending the perceived information in order to interpret it locally, are presented. Featuring such intelligence, these nodes would be able to cope with such tasks as recognition of unattended bags in airports, persons carrying potentially dangerous objects, etc.,which normally require a human operator. Vision algorithms for object detection, acquisition like human detection with Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification and abandoned/removed object detection are implemented, described and illustrated on real world data. Multimodal surveillance: In several setup the use of wired video cameras may not be possible. For this reason building an energy efficient wireless vision network for monitoring and surveillance is one of the major efforts in the sensor network community. Energy efficiency for wireless smart camera networks is one of the major efforts in distributed monitoring and surveillance community. For this reason, building an energy efficient wireless vision network for monitoring and surveillance is one of the major efforts in the sensor network community. The Pyroelectric Infra-Red (PIR) sensors have been used to extend the lifetime of a solar-powered video sensor node by providing an energy level dependent trigger to the video camera and the wireless module. Such approach has shown to be able to extend node lifetime and possibly result in continuous operation of the node.Being low-cost, passive (thus low-power) and presenting a limited form factor, PIR sensors are well suited for WSN applications. Moreover techniques to have aggressive power management policies are essential for achieving long-termoperating on standalone distributed cameras needed to improve the power consumption. We have used an adaptive controller like Model Predictive Control (MPC) to help the system to improve the performances outperforming naive power management policies.