The Influence of Fractures on Vulnerability to Pollution of a Carbonate Aquifer: Monte Conero (Italy)

The carbonate outcrops of the anticline of Monte Conero (Italy) were studied in order to characterize the geometry of the fractures and to establish their influence on the petrophysical properties (hydraulic conductivity) and on the vulnerability to pollution. The outcrops form an analog for a fractured aquifer and belong to the Maiolica Fm. and the Scaglia Rossa Fm. The geometrical properties of fractures such as orientation, length, spacing and aperture were collected and statistically analyzed. Five types of mechanical fractures were observed: veins, joints, stylolites, breccias and faults. The types of fractures are arranged in different sets and geometric assemblages which form fracture networks. In addition, the fractures were analyzed at the microscale using thin sections. The fracture age-relationships resulted similar to those observed at the outcrop scale, indicating that at least three geological episodes have occurred in Monte Conero. A conceptual model for fault development was based on the observations of veins and stylolites. The fracture sets were modelled by the code FracSim3D to generate fracture network models. The permeability of a breccia zone was estimated at microscale by and point counting and binary image methods, whereas at the outcrop scale with Oda’s method. Microstructure analysis revealed that only faults and breccias are potential pathways for fluid flow since all veins observed are filled with calcite. According this, three scenarios were designed to asses the vulnerability to pollution of the analogue aquifer: the first scenario considers the Monte Conero without fractures, second scenario with all observed systematic fractures and the third scenario with open veins, joints and faults/breccias. The fractures influence the carbonate aquifer by increasing its porosity and hydraulic conductivity. The vulnerability to pollution depends also on the presence of karst zones, detric zones and the material of the vadose zone.

Cascading events triggering industrial accidents: quantitative assessment of NaTech and domino scenarios

The so called cascading events, which lead to high-impact low-frequency scenarios are rising concern worldwide. A chain of events result in a major industrial accident with dreadful (and often unpredicted) consequences. Cascading events can be the result of the realization of an external threat, like a terrorist attack a natural disaster or of “domino effect”. During domino events the escalation of a primary accident is driven by the propagation of the primary event to nearby units, causing an overall increment of the accident severity and an increment of the risk associated to an industrial installation. Also natural disasters, like intense flooding, hurricanes, earthquake and lightning are found capable to enhance the risk of an industrial area, triggering loss of containment of hazardous materials and in major accidents. The scientific community usually refers to those accidents as “NaTechs”: natural events triggering industrial accidents. In this document, a state of the art of available approaches to the modelling, assessment, prevention and management of domino and NaTech events is described. On the other hand, the relevant work carried out during past studies still needs to be consolidated and completed, in order to be applicable in a real industrial framework. New methodologies, developed during my research activity, aimed at the quantitative assessment of domino and NaTech accidents are presented. The tools and methods provided within this very study had the aim to assist the progress toward a consolidated and universal methodology for the assessment and prevention of cascading events, contributing to enhance safety and sustainability of the chemical and process industry.