A multilevel converter structure for grid-connected PV plants

A new conversion structure for three-phase grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) generation plants is presented and discussed in this Thesis. The conversion scheme is based on two insulated PV arrays, each one feeding the dc bus of a standard 2-level three-phase voltage source inverter (VSI). Inverters are connected to the grid by a traditional three-phase transformer having open-end windings at inverters side and either star or delta connection at the grid side. The resulting conversion structure is able to perform as a multilevel VSI, equivalent to a 3-level inverter, doubling the power capability of a single VSI with given voltage and current ratings. Different modulation schemes able to generate proper multilevel voltage waveforms have been discussed and compared. They include known algorithms, some their developments, and new original approaches. The goal was to share the grid power with a given ratio between the two VSI within each cycle period of the PWM, being the PWM pattern suitable for the implementation in industrial DSPs. It has been shown that an extension of the modulation methods for standard two-level inverter can provide a elegant solution for dual two-level inverter. An original control method has been introduced to regulate the dc-link voltages of each VSI, according to the voltage reference given by a single MPPT controller. A particular MPPT algorithm has been successfully tested, based on the comparison of the operating points of the two PV arrays. The small deliberately introduced difference between two operating dc voltages leads towards the MPP in a fast and accurate manner. Either simulation or experimental tests, or even both, always accompanied theoretical developments. For the simulation, the Simulink tool of Matlab has been adopted, whereas the experiments have been carried out by a full-scale low-voltage prototype of the whole PV generation system. All the research work was done at the Lab of the Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Bologna.

Earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard analysis: some insights on the testing phase and the modeling

This thesis is divided in three chapters. In the first chapter we analyse the results of the world forecasting experiment run by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We take the opportunity of this experiment to contribute to the definition of a more robust and reliable statistical procedure to evaluate earthquake forecasting models. We first present the models and the target earthquakes to be forecast. Then we explain the consistency and comparison tests that are used in CSEP experiments to evaluate the performance of the models. Introducing a methodology to create ensemble forecasting models, we show that models, when properly combined, are almost always better performing that any single model. In the second chapter we discuss in depth one of the basic features of PSHA: the declustering of the seismicity rates. We first introduce the Cornell-McGuire method for PSHA and we present the different motivations that stand behind the need of declustering seismic catalogs. Using a theorem of the modern probability (Le Cam's theorem) we show that the declustering is not necessary to obtain a Poissonian behaviour of the exceedances that is usually considered fundamental to transform exceedance rates in exceedance probabilities in the PSHA framework. We present a method to correct PSHA for declustering, building a more realistic PSHA. In the last chapter we explore the methods that are commonly used to take into account the epistemic uncertainty in PSHA. The most widely used method is the logic tree that stands at the basis of the most advanced seismic hazard maps. We illustrate the probabilistic structure of the logic tree, and then we show that this structure is not adequate to describe the epistemic uncertainty. We then propose a new probabilistic framework based on the ensemble modelling that properly accounts for epistemic uncertainties in PSHA.

Analysis and mathematical modeling of wave-structure interaction

The aim of this thesis, included within the THESEUS project, is the development of a mathematical model 2DV two-phase, based on the existing code IH-2VOF developed by the University of Cantabria, able to represent together the overtopping phenomenon and the sediment transport. Several numerical simulations were carried out in order to analyze the flow characteristics on a dike crest. The results show that the seaward/landward slope does not affect the evolution of the flow depth and velocity over the dike crest whereas the most important parameter is the relative submergence. Wave heights decrease and flow velocities increase while waves travel over the crest. In particular, by increasing the submergence, the wave height decay and the increase of the velocity are less marked. Besides, an appropriate curve able to fit the variation of the wave height/velocity over the dike crest were found. Both for the wave height and for the wave velocity different fitting coefficients were determined on the basis of the submergence and of the significant wave height. An equation describing the trend of the dimensionless coefficient c_h for the wave height was derived. These conclusions could be taken into consideration for the design criteria and the upgrade of the structures. In the second part of the thesis, new equations for the representation of the sediment transport in the IH-2VOF model were introduced in order to represent beach erosion while waves run-up and overtop the sea banks during storms. The new model allows to calculate sediment fluxes in the water column together with the sediment concentration. Moreover it is possible to model the bed profile evolution. Different tests were performed under low-intensity regular waves with an homogeneous layer of sand on the bottom of a channel in order to analyze the erosion-deposition patterns and verify the model results.