A partial dependence factorial analysis to deal with selection bias in observational studis

This thesis presents a creative and practical approach to dealing with the problem of selection bias. Selection bias may be the most important vexing problem in program evaluation or in any line of research that attempts to assert causality. Some of the greatest minds in economics and statistics have scrutinized the problem of selection bias, with the resulting approaches – Rubin’s Potential Outcome Approach(Rosenbaum and Rubin,1983; Rubin, 1991,2001,2004) or Heckman’s Selection model (Heckman, 1979) – being widely accepted and used as the best fixes. These solutions to the bias that arises in particular from self selection are imperfect, and many researchers, when feasible, reserve their strongest causal inference for data from experimental rather than observational studies. The innovative aspect of this thesis is to propose a data transformation that allows measuring and testing in an automatic and multivariate way the presence of selection bias. The approach involves the construction of a multi-dimensional conditional space of the X matrix in which the bias associated with the treatment assignment has been eliminated. Specifically, we propose the use of a partial dependence analysis of the X-space as a tool for investigating the dependence relationship between a set of observable pre-treatment categorical covariates X and a treatment indicator variable T, in order to obtain a measure of bias according to their dependence structure. The measure of selection bias is then expressed in terms of inertia due to the dependence between X and T that has been eliminated. Given the measure of selection bias, we propose a multivariate test of imbalance in order to check if the detected bias is significant, by using the asymptotical distribution of inertia due to T (Estadella et al. 2005) , and by preserving the multivariate nature of data. Further, we propose the use of a clustering procedure as a tool to find groups of comparable units on which estimate local causal effects, and the use of the multivariate test of imbalance as a stopping rule in choosing the best cluster solution set. The method is non parametric, it does not call for modeling the data, based on some underlying theory or assumption about the selection process, but instead it calls for using the existing variability within the data and letting the data to speak. The idea of proposing this multivariate approach to measure selection bias and test balance comes from the consideration that in applied research all aspects of multivariate balance, not represented in the univariate variable- by-variable summaries, are ignored. The first part contains an introduction to evaluation methods as part of public and private decision process and a review of the literature of evaluation methods. The attention is focused on Rubin Potential Outcome Approach, matching methods, and briefly on Heckman’s Selection Model. The second part focuses on some resulting limitations of conventional methods, with particular attention to the problem of how testing in the correct way balancing. The third part contains the original contribution proposed , a simulation study that allows to check the performance of the method for a given dependence setting and an application to a real data set. Finally, we discuss, conclude and explain our future perspectives.

Partial discharge in power distribution electrical systems: pulse propagation models and detection optimization

Investigation on impulsive signals, originated from Partial Discharge (PD) phenomena, represents an effective tool for preventing electric failures in High Voltage (HV) and Medium Voltage (MV) systems. The determination of both sensors and instruments bandwidths is the key to achieve meaningful measurements, that is to say, obtaining the maximum Signal-To-Noise Ratio (SNR). The optimum bandwidth depends on the characteristics of the system under test, which can be often represented as a transmission line characterized by signal attenuation and dispersion phenomena. It is therefore necessary to develop both models and techniques which can characterize accurately the PD propagation mechanisms in each system and work out the frequency characteristics of the PD pulses at detection point, in order to design proper sensors able to carry out PD measurement on-line with maximum SNR. Analytical models will be devised in order to predict PD propagation in MV apparatuses. Furthermore, simulation tools will be used where complex geometries make analytical models to be unfeasible. In particular, PD propagation in MV cables, transformers and switchgears will be investigated, taking into account both irradiated and conducted signals associated to PD events, in order to design proper sensors.

Partial Discharge Phenomena in Converter and Traction Transformers: Identification and Reliability

After the development of power electronics converters, the number of transformers subjected to non-sinusoidal stresses (including DC) has increased in applications such as HVDC links and traction (electric train power cars). The effects of non-sinusoidal voltages on transformer insulation have been investigated by many researchers, but still now, there are some issues that must be understood. Some of those issues are tackled in this Thesis, studying PD phenomena behavior in Kraft paper, pressboard and mineral oil at different voltage conditions like AC, DC, AC+DC, notched AC and square waveforms. From the point of view of converter transformers, it was found that the combined effect of AC and DC voltages produces higher stresses in the pressboard that those that are present under pure DC voltages. The electrical conductivity of the dielectric systems in DC and AC+DC conditions has demonstrated to be a critical parameter, so, its measurement and analysis was also taken into account during all the experiments. Regarding notched voltages, the RMS reduction caused by notches (depending on firing and overlap angles) seems to increase the PDIV. However, the experimental results show that once PD activity has incepted, the notches increase PD repetition rate and magnitude, producing a higher degradation rate of paper. On the other hand, the reduction of mineral oil stocks, their relatively low flash point as well as environmental issues, are factors that are pushing towards the use of esters as transformer insulating fluids. This PhD Thesis also covers the study of two different esters with the scope to validate their use in traction transformers. Mineral oil was used as benchmark. The complete set of dielectric tests performed in the three fluids, show that esters behave better than mineral oil in practically all the investigated conditions, so, their application in traction transformers is possible and encouraged.

Geotechnical characterization of mixed sandy and silty soils using piezocone tests: Analysis of partial drainage phenomena and rate effects on the experimental soil response

The cone penetration test (CPT), together with its recent variation (CPTU), has become the most widely used in-situ testing technique for soil profiling and geotechnical characterization. The knowledge gained over the last decades on the interpretation procedures in sands and clays is certainly wide, whilst very few contributions can be found as regards the analysis of CPT(u) data in intermediate soils. Indeed, it is widely accepted that at the standard rate of penetration (v = 20 mm/s), drained penetration occurs in sands while undrained penetration occurs in clays. However, a problem arise when the available interpretation approaches are applied to cone measurements in silts, sandy silts, silty or clayey sands, since such intermediate geomaterials are often characterized by permeability values within the range in which partial drainage is very likely to occur. Hence, the application of the available and well-established interpretation procedures, developed for ‘standard’ clays and sands, may result in invalid estimates of soil parameters. This study aims at providing a better understanding on the interpretation of CPTU data in natural sand and silt mixtures, by taking into account two main aspects, as specified below: 1)Investigating the effect of penetration rate on piezocone measurements, with the aim of identifying drainage conditions when cone penetration is performed at a standard rate. This part of the thesis has been carried out with reference to a specific CPTU database recently collected in a liquefaction-prone area (Emilia-Romagna Region, Italy). 2)Providing a better insight into the interpretation of piezocone tests in the widely studied silty sediments of the Venetian lagoon (Italy). Research has focused on the calibration and verification of some site-specific correlations, with special reference to the estimate of compressibility parameters for the assessment of long-term settlements of the Venetian coastal defences.