A partial dependence factorial analysis to deal with selection bias in observational studis

This thesis presents a creative and practical approach to dealing with the problem of selection bias. Selection bias may be the most important vexing problem in program evaluation or in any line of research that attempts to assert causality. Some of the greatest minds in economics and statistics have scrutinized the problem of selection bias, with the resulting approaches – Rubin’s Potential Outcome Approach(Rosenbaum and Rubin,1983; Rubin, 1991,2001,2004) or Heckman’s Selection model (Heckman, 1979) – being widely accepted and used as the best fixes. These solutions to the bias that arises in particular from self selection are imperfect, and many researchers, when feasible, reserve their strongest causal inference for data from experimental rather than observational studies. The innovative aspect of this thesis is to propose a data transformation that allows measuring and testing in an automatic and multivariate way the presence of selection bias. The approach involves the construction of a multi-dimensional conditional space of the X matrix in which the bias associated with the treatment assignment has been eliminated. Specifically, we propose the use of a partial dependence analysis of the X-space as a tool for investigating the dependence relationship between a set of observable pre-treatment categorical covariates X and a treatment indicator variable T, in order to obtain a measure of bias according to their dependence structure. The measure of selection bias is then expressed in terms of inertia due to the dependence between X and T that has been eliminated. Given the measure of selection bias, we propose a multivariate test of imbalance in order to check if the detected bias is significant, by using the asymptotical distribution of inertia due to T (Estadella et al. 2005) , and by preserving the multivariate nature of data. Further, we propose the use of a clustering procedure as a tool to find groups of comparable units on which estimate local causal effects, and the use of the multivariate test of imbalance as a stopping rule in choosing the best cluster solution set. The method is non parametric, it does not call for modeling the data, based on some underlying theory or assumption about the selection process, but instead it calls for using the existing variability within the data and letting the data to speak. The idea of proposing this multivariate approach to measure selection bias and test balance comes from the consideration that in applied research all aspects of multivariate balance, not represented in the univariate variable- by-variable summaries, are ignored. The first part contains an introduction to evaluation methods as part of public and private decision process and a review of the literature of evaluation methods. The attention is focused on Rubin Potential Outcome Approach, matching methods, and briefly on Heckman’s Selection Model. The second part focuses on some resulting limitations of conventional methods, with particular attention to the problem of how testing in the correct way balancing. The third part contains the original contribution proposed , a simulation study that allows to check the performance of the method for a given dependence setting and an application to a real data set. Finally, we discuss, conclude and explain our future perspectives.

A model for diffusive and displacive phase transitions in steels

Heat treatment of steels is a process of fundamental importance in tailoring the properties of a material to the desired application; developing a model able to describe such process would allow to predict the microstructure obtained from the treatment and the consequent mechanical properties of the material. A steel, during a heat treatment, can undergo two different kinds of phase transitions [p.t.]: diffusive (second order p.t.) and displacive (first order p.t.); in this thesis, an attempt to describe both in a thermodynamically consistent framework is made; a phase field, diffuse interface model accounting for the coupling between thermal, chemical and mechanical effects is developed, and a way to overcome the difficulties arising from the treatment of the non-local effects (gradient terms) is proposed. The governing equations are the balance of linear momentum equation, the Cahn-Hilliard equation and the balance of internal energy equation. The model is completed with a suitable description of the free energy, from which constitutive relations are drawn. The equations are then cast in a variational form and different numerical techniques are used to deal with the principal features of the model: time-dependency, non-linearity and presence of high order spatial derivatives. Simulations are performed using DOLFIN, a C++ library for the automated solution of partial differential equations by means of the finite element method; results are shown for different test-cases. The analysis is reduced to a two dimensional setting, which is simpler than a three dimensional one, but still meaningful.

Physical model of PD behavior and relevant damage growth from micro-cavities in polyethylene-based material under AC voltage

In the framework of developing defect-based life models, in which breakdown is explicitly associated with partial discharge (PD)-induced damage growth from a defect, ageing tests and PD measurements were carried out in the lab on polyethylene (PE) layered specimens containing artificial cavities. PD activity was monitored continuously during aging. A quasi-deterministic series of stages can be observed in the behavior of the main PD parameters (i.e. discharge repetition rate and amplitude). Phase-resolved PD patterns at various ageing stages were reproduced by numerical simulation which is based on a physical discharge model devoid of adaptive parameters. The evolution of the simulation parameters provides insight into the physical-chemical changes taking place at the dielectric/cavity interface during the aging process. PD activity shows similar time behavior under constant cavity gas volume and constant cavity gas pressure conditions, suggesting that the variation of PD parameters may not be attributed to the variation of the gas pressure. Brownish PD byproducts, consisting of oxygen containing moieties, and degradation pits were found at the dielectric/cavity interface. It is speculated that the change of PD activity is related to the composition of the cavity gas, as well as to the properties of dielectric/cavity interface.

Sonic Hedgehog pathway impairment in Neural Precursor Cells of the Ts65Dn mouse, an animal model of Down syndrome

Mental retardation in Down syndrome (DS) has been imputed to the decreased brain volume, which is evident starting from the early phases of development. Recent studies in a widely used mouse model of DS, the Ts65Dn mouse, have shown that neurogenesis is severely impaired during the early phases of brain development, suggesting that this defect may be a major determinant of brain hypotrophy and mental retardation in individuals with DS. Recently, it has been found that in the cerebellum of Ts65Dn mice there is a defective responsiveness to Sonic Hedgehog (Shh), a potent mitogen that controls cell division during brain development, suggesting that failure of Shh signaling may underlie the reduced proliferation potency in DS. Based on these premises, we sought to identify the molecular mechanisms underlying derangement of the Shh pathway in neural precursor cells (NPCs) from Ts65Dn mice. We found that the expression levels of the Shh receptor Patched1 (Ptch1) were increased compared to controls both at the RNA and protein level. Partial silencing of Ptch1 expression in trisomic NPCs restored cell proliferation, indicating that proliferation impairment was due to Ptch1 overexpression. We further found that the overexpression of Ptch1 in trisomic NPCs is related to increased levels of AICD, a transcription-promoting fragment of amyloid precursor protein (APP). Increased AICD binding to the Ptch1 promoter favored its acetylated status, thus enhancing Ptch1 expression. Taken together, these data provide novel evidence that Ptch1 over expression underlies derangement of the Shh pathway in trisomic NPCs, with consequent proliferation impairment. The demonstration that Ptch1 over expression in trisomic NPCs is due to an APP fragment provides a link between this trisomic gene and the defective neuronal production that characterizes the DS brain.

Model predictive control in thermal management of multiprocessor systems-on-chip

MultiProcessor Systems-on-Chip (MPSoC) are the core of nowadays and next generation computing platforms. Their relevance in the global market continuously increase, occupying an important role both in everydaylife products (e.g. smartphones, tablets, laptops, cars) and in strategical market sectors as aviation, defense, robotics, medicine. Despite of the incredible performance improvements in the recent years processors manufacturers have had to deal with issues, commonly called “Walls”, that have hindered the processors development. After the famous “Power Wall”, that limited the maximum frequency of a single core and marked the birth of the modern multiprocessors system-on-chip, the “Thermal Wall” and the “Utilization Wall” are the actual key limiter for performance improvements. The former concerns the damaging effects of the high temperature on the chip caused by the large power densities dissipation, whereas the second refers to the impossibility of fully exploiting the computing power of the processor due to the limitations on power and temperature budgets. In this thesis we faced these challenges by developing efficient and reliable solutions able to maximize performance while limiting the maximum temperature below a fixed critical threshold and saving energy. This has been possible by exploiting the Model Predictive Controller (MPC) paradigm that solves an optimization problem subject to constraints in order to find the optimal control decisions for the future interval. A fully-distributedMPC-based thermal controller with a far lower complexity respect to a centralized one has been developed. The control feasibility and interesting properties for the simplification of the control design has been proved by studying a partial differential equation thermal model. Finally, the controller has been efficiently included in more complex control schemes able to minimize energy consumption and deal with mixed-criticalities tasks

Adulthood with Turner Syndrome: Quality of life, psychosocial adjustment and clinical management in 70 Italian women

Abstract Background: Turner syndrome (TS) is a chromosomal abnormality (total or partial absence of one of the sexual chromosomes in some or all cells of the body), which affects approximately 1:2000 female. Principal characteristics are short stature and gonadal disgenesis. Clinical management consist of Growth Hormone (GH) treatment and oestrogen replacement therapy (HRT), to induce development of secondary characteristics and to avoid the sequelae of oestrogen deficiency. Aim of the study: To assess clinical management, quality of life (QoL) and general psychosocial adjustment of women with TS. Population: 70 adult Caucasian females with TS (mean age: 27.8, ± 7.6; range 18-48 y.). Setting: Specialist service for Rare Disease care, University Hospital. Methods: Subjects were required to fill in questionnaires collecting ASR, WHOQOL, and 8 open questions. Data were compared with those of the Italian population or to those collected in a comparison group (70 healthy females, mean age: 27.9, ±7.3, range 21-48 y.). Results: Women with TS are educated as well as the Italian Population, but they have a less successful professional life. They show good QoL in general, but they appeared less satisfied in social area. They had statistically higher scores than the comparison group for depression, anxiety and withdrawal. Are less involved in a love relationship. Diagnosis communication was mostly performed by doctors or parents, satisfaction was higher when information was given by parents. Main preoccupation about TS are infertility, feeling of being different and future health problem. Conclusions: Italian people with TS were generally well adapted and have a good QoL, but lived more often with parents and show impaired sentimental and sexual life. They have higher degree of psychological distress compared to a comparison group. Psychological intervention should firstly address parents in order to encourage an open communication on diagnosis issues and on sexual education.