Social Welfare and Behavioral Public Policies

In this work I discuss several key aspects of welfare economics and policy analysis and I propose two original contributions to the growing field of behavioral public policymaking. After providing a historical perspective of welfare economics and an overview of policy analysis processes in the introductory chapter, in chapter 2 I discuss a debated issue of policymaking, the choice of the social welfare function. I contribute to this debate by proposing an original methodological contribution based on the analysis of the quantitative relationship among different social welfare functional forms commonly used by policy analysts. In chapter 3 I then discuss a behavioral policy to contrast indirect tax evasion based on the use of lotteries. I show that the predictions of my model based on non-expected utility are consistent with observed, and so far unexplained, empirical evidence of the policy success. Finally, in chapter 4 I investigate by mean of a laboratory experiment the effects of social influence on the individual likelihood to engage in altruistic punishment. I show that bystanders’ decision to engage in punishment is influenced by the punishment behavior of their peers and I suggest ways to enact behavioral policies that exploit this finding.

Modelli non lineari statici e dinamici su dati microeconomici: analisi delle condizioni finanziarie delle famiglie italiane

The thesis studies the economic and financial conditions of Italian households, by using microeconomic data of the Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) over the period 1998-2006. It develops along two lines of enquiry. First it studies the determinants of households holdings of assets and liabilities and estimates their correlation degree. After a review of the literature, it estimates two non-linear multivariate models on the interactions between assets and liabilities with repeated cross-sections. Second, it analyses households financial difficulties. It defines a quantitative measure of financial distress and tests, by means of non-linear dynamic probit models, whether the probability of experiencing financial difficulties is persistent over time. Chapter 1 provides a critical review of the theoretical and empirical literature on the estimation of assets and liabilities holdings, on their interactions and on households net wealth. The review stresses the fact that a large part of the literature explain households debt holdings as a function, among others, of net wealth, an assumption that runs into possible endogeneity problems. Chapter 2 defines two non-linear multivariate models to study the interactions between assets and liabilities held by Italian households. Estimation refers to a pooling of cross-sections of SHIW. The first model is a bivariate tobit that estimates factors affecting assets and liabilities and their degree of correlation with results coherent with theoretical expectations. To tackle the presence of non normality and heteroskedasticity in the error term, generating non consistent tobit estimators, semi-parametric estimates are provided that confirm the results of the tobit model. The second model is a quadrivariate probit on three different assets (safe, risky and real) and total liabilities; the results show the expected patterns of interdependence suggested by theoretical considerations. Chapter 3 reviews the methodologies for estimating non-linear dynamic panel data models, drawing attention to the problems to be dealt with to obtain consistent estimators. Specific attention is given to the initial condition problem raised by the inclusion of the lagged dependent variable in the set of explanatory variables. The advantage of using dynamic panel data models lies in the fact that they allow to simultaneously account for true state dependence, via the lagged variable, and unobserved heterogeneity via individual effects specification. Chapter 4 applies the models reviewed in Chapter 3 to analyse financial difficulties of Italian households, by using information on net wealth as provided in the panel component of the SHIW. The aim is to test whether households persistently experience financial difficulties over time. A thorough discussion is provided of the alternative approaches proposed by the literature (subjective/qualitative indicators versus quantitative indexes) to identify households in financial distress. Households in financial difficulties are identified as those holding amounts of net wealth lower than the value corresponding to the first quartile of net wealth distribution. Estimation is conducted via four different methods: the pooled probit model, the random effects probit model with exogenous initial conditions, the Heckman model and the recently developed Wooldridge model. Results obtained from all estimators accept the null hypothesis of true state dependence and show that, according with the literature, less sophisticated models, namely the pooled and exogenous models, over-estimate such persistence.

The cardio-renal axis. Non ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction risk stratification according to renal dysfunction

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is one of the strongest risk factor for myocardial infarction (MI) and mortality. The aim of this study was to assess the association between renal dysfunction severity, short-term outcomes and the use of in-hospital evidence-based therapies among patients with non–ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Methods: We examined data on 320 patients presenting with NSTEMI to Maggiore’s Emergency Department from 1st Jan 2010 to 31st December 2011. The study patients were classified into two groups according to their baseline glomerular filtration rate (GFR): renal dysfunction (RD) (GFR<60) and non-RD (GFR≥60 ml/min). Patients were then classified into four groups according to their CKD stage (GFR≥60, GFR 59-30, GFR 29-15, GFR <15). Results: Of the 320 patients, 155 (48,4%) had a GFR<60 ml/min at baseline. Compared with patients with a GFR≥60 ml/min, this group was, more likely to be female, to have hypertension, a previous myocardial infarction, stroke or TIA, had higher levels of uric acid and C-reactive protein. They were less likely to receive immediate (first 24 hours) evidence-based therapies. The GFR of RD patients treated appropriately increases on average by 5.5 ml/min/1.73 m2. The length of stay (mean, SD) increased with increasing CKD stage, respectively 5,3 (4,1), 7.0 (6.1), 7.8 (7.0), 9.2 (5.8) (global p <.0001). Females had on average a longer hospitalization than males, regardless of RD. In hospital mortality was higher in RD group (3,25%). Conclusions: The in-hospital mortality not was statically difference among the patients with a GFR value ≥60 ml/min, and patients with a GFR value <60 ml/min. The length of stay increased with increasing CKD stages. Despite patients with RD have more comorbidities then without RD less frequently receive guideline –recommended therapy. The GFR of RD patients treated appropriately improves during hospitalization, but not a level as we expected.

Non-standard signatures from Cosmic Microwave Background polarisation

In this Thesis we focus on non-standard signatures from CMB polarisation, which might hint at the existence of new phenomena beyond the standard models for Cosmology and Particle physics. With the Planck ESA mission, CMB temperature anisotropies have been observed at the cosmic variance limit, but polarisation remains to be further investigated. CMB polarisation data are important not only because they contribute to provide tighter constraints of cosmological parameters but also because they allow the investigation of physical processes that would be precluded if just the CMB temperature maps were considered. We take polarisation data into account to assess the statistical significance of the anomalies currently observed only in the CMB temperature map and to constrain the Cosmic Birefringence (CB) effect, which is expected in parity-violating extensions of the standard electromagnetism. In particular, we propose a new one-dimensional estimator for the lack of power anomaly capable of taking both temperature and polarisation into account jointly. With the aim of studying the anisotropic CB we develop and perform two different and complementary methods able to evaluate the power spectrum of the CB. Finally, by employing these estimators and methodologies on Planck data we provide new constraints beyond what already known in literature. The measure of CMB polarisation represents a technological challenge and to make accurate estimates, one has to keep an exquisite control of the systematic effects. In order to investigate the impact of spurious signal in forthcoming CMB polarisation experiments, we study the interplay between half-wave plates (HWP) non-idealities and the beams. Our analysis suggests that certain HWP configurations, depending on the complexity of Galactic foregrounds and the beam models, significantly impacts the B-mode reconstruction fidelity and could limit the capabilities of next-generation CMB experiments. We provide also a first study of the impact of non-ideal HWPs on CB.

NB-IoT via non terrestrial networks

Massive Internet of Things is expected to play a crucial role in Beyond 5G (B5G) wireless communication systems, offering seamless connectivity among heterogeneous devices without human intervention. However, the exponential proliferation of smart devices and IoT networks, relying solely on terrestrial networks, may not fully meet the demanding IoT requirements in terms of bandwidth and connectivity, especially in areas where terrestrial infrastructures are not economically viable. To unleash the full potential of 5G and B5G networks and enable seamless connectivity everywhere, the 3GPP envisions the integration of Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTNs) into the terrestrial ones starting from Release 17. However, this integration process requires modifications to the 5G standard to ensure reliable communications despite typical satellite channel impairments. In this framework, this thesis aims at proposing techniques at the Physical and Medium Access Control layers that require minimal adaptations in the current NB-IoT standard via NTN. Thus, firstly the satellite impairments are evaluated and, then, a detailed link budget analysis is provided. Following, analyses at the link and the system levels are conducted. In the former case, a novel algorithm leveraging time-frequency analysis is proposed to detect orthogonal preambles and estimate the signals’ arrival time. Besides, the effects of collisions on the detection probability and Bit Error Rate are investigated and Non-Orthogonal Multiple Access approaches are proposed in the random access and data phases. The system analysis evaluates the performance of random access in case of congestion. Various access parameters are tested in different satellite scenarios, and the performance is measured in terms of access probability and time required to complete the procedure. Finally, a heuristic algorithm is proposed to jointly design the access and data phases, determining the number of satellite passages, the Random Access Periodicity, and the number of uplink repetitions that maximize the system's spectral efficiency.