Global and regional sea level variations in the recent past and future: insight from observations and modeling

This work is focused on the analysis of sea–level change (last century), based mainly on instrumental observations. During this period, individual components of sea–level change are investigated, both at global and regional scales. Some of the geophysical processes responsible for current sea-level change such as glacial isostatic adjustments and current melting terrestrial ice sources, have been modeled and compared with observations. A new value of global mean sea level change based of tide gauges observations has been independently assessed in 1.5 mm/year, using corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment obtained with different models as a criterion for the tide gauge selection. The long wavelength spatial variability of the main components of sea–level change has been investigated by means of traditional and new spectral methods. Complex non–linear trends and abrupt sea–level variations shown by tide gauges records have been addressed applying different approaches to regional case studies. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique has been used to analyse tide gauges records from the Adriatic Sea to ascertain the existence of cyclic sea-level variations. An Early Warning approach have been adopted to detect tipping points in sea–level records of North East Pacific and their relationship with oceanic modes. Global sea–level projections to year 2100 have been obtained by a semi-empirical approach based on the artificial neural network method. In addition, a model-based approach has been applied to the case of the Mediterranean Sea, obtaining sea-level projection to year 2050.

Motor control system in Parkinson’s disease: a modeling approach

Parkinson’s disease is a neurodegenerative disorder due to the death of the dopaminergic neurons of the substantia nigra of the basal ganglia. The process that leads to these neural alterations is still unknown. Parkinson’s disease affects most of all the motor sphere, with a wide array of impairment such as bradykinesia, akinesia, tremor, postural instability and singular phenomena such as freezing of gait. Moreover, in the last few years the fact that the degeneration in the basal ganglia circuitry induces not only motor but also cognitive alterations, not necessarily implicating dementia, and that dopamine loss induces also further implications due to dopamine-driven synaptic plasticity got more attention. At the present moment, no neuroprotective treatment is available, and even if dopamine-replacement therapies as well as electrical deep brain stimulation are able to improve the life conditions of the patients, they often present side effects on the long term, and cannot recover the neural loss, which instead continues to advance. In the present thesis both motor and cognitive aspects of Parkinson’s disease and basal ganglia circuitry were investigated, at first focusing on Parkinson’s disease sensory and balance issues by means of a new instrumented method based on inertial sensor to provide further information about postural control and postural strategies used to attain balance, then applying this newly developed approach to assess balance control in mild and severe patients, both ON and OFF levodopa replacement. Given the inability of levodopa to recover balance issues and the new physiological findings than underline the importance in Parkinson’s disease of non-dopaminergic neurotransmitters, it was therefore developed an original computational model focusing on acetylcholine, the most promising neurotransmitter according to physiology, and its role in synaptic plasticity. The rationale of this thesis is that a multidisciplinary approach could gain insight into Parkinson’s disease features still unresolved.

Deploying and processing neural representations of signals

Neural representations (NR) have emerged in the last few years as a powerful tool to represent signals from several domains, such as images, 3D shapes, or audio. Indeed, deep neural networks have been shown capable of approximating continuous functions that describe a given signal with theoretical infinite resolution. This finding allows obtaining representations whose memory footprint is fixed and decoupled from the resolution at which the underlying signal can be sampled, something that is not possible with traditional discrete representations, e.g., grids of pixels for images or voxels for 3D shapes. During the last two years, many techniques have been proposed to improve the capability of NR to approximate high-frequency details and to make the optimization procedures required to obtain NR less demanding both in terms of time and data requirements, motivating many researchers to deploy NR as the main form of data representation for complex pipelines. Following this line of research, we first show that NR can approximate precisely Unsigned Distance Functions, providing an effective way to represent garments that feature open 3D surfaces and unknown topology. Then, we present a pipeline to obtain in a few minutes a compact Neural Twin® for a given object, by exploiting the recent advances in modeling neural radiance fields. Furthermore, we move a step in the direction of adopting NR as a standalone representation, by considering the possibility of performing downstream tasks by processing directly the NR weights. We first show that deep neural networks can be compressed into compact latent codes. Then, we show how this technique can be exploited to perform deep learning on implicit neural representations (INR) of 3D shapes, by only looking at the weights of the networks.

Assessing brain connectivity through electroencephalographic signal processing and modeling analysis

Brain functioning relies on the interaction of several neural populations connected through complex connectivity networks, enabling the transmission and integration of information. Recent advances in neuroimaging techniques, such as electroencephalography (EEG), have deepened our understanding of the reciprocal roles played by brain regions during cognitive processes. The underlying idea of this PhD research is that EEG-related functional connectivity (FC) changes in the brain may incorporate important neuromarkers of behavior and cognition, as well as brain disorders, even at subclinical levels. However, a complete understanding of the reliability of the wide range of existing connectivity estimation techniques is still lacking. The first part of this work addresses this limitation by employing Neural Mass Models (NMMs), which simulate EEG activity and offer a unique tool to study interconnected networks of brain regions in controlled conditions. NMMs were employed to test FC estimators like Transfer Entropy and Granger Causality in linear and nonlinear conditions. Results revealed that connectivity estimates reflect information transmission between brain regions, a quantity that can be significantly different from the connectivity strength, and that Granger causality outperforms the other estimators. A second objective of this thesis was to assess brain connectivity and network changes on EEG data reconstructed at the cortical level. Functional brain connectivity has been estimated through Granger Causality, in both temporal and spectral domains, with the following goals: a) detect task-dependent functional connectivity network changes, focusing on internal-external attention competition and fear conditioning and reversal; b) identify resting-state network alterations in a subclinical population with high autistic traits. Connectivity-based neuromarkers, compared to the canonical EEG analysis, can provide deeper insights into brain mechanisms and may drive future diagnostic methods and therapeutic interventions. However, further methodological studies are required to fully understand the accuracy and information captured by FC estimates, especially concerning nonlinear phenomena.

Data-driven multivariate flood hazard modeling

The present Dissertation shows how recent statistical analysis tools and open datasets can be exploited to improve modelling accuracy in two distinct yet interconnected domains of flood hazard (FH) assessment. In the first Part, unsupervised artificial neural networks are employed as regional models for sub-daily rainfall extremes. The models aim to learn a robust relation to estimate locally the parameters of Gumbel distributions of extreme rainfall depths for any sub-daily duration (1-24h). The predictions depend on twenty morphoclimatic descriptors. A large study area in north-central Italy is adopted, where 2238 annual maximum series are available. Validation is performed over an independent set of 100 gauges. Our results show that multivariate ANNs may remarkably improve the estimation of percentiles relative to the benchmark approach from the literature, where Gumbel parameters depend on mean annual precipitation. Finally, we show that the very nature of the proposed ANN models makes them suitable for interpolating predicted sub-daily rainfall quantiles across space and time-aggregation intervals. In the second Part, decision trees are used to combine a selected blend of input geomorphic descriptors for predicting FH. Relative to existing DEM-based approaches, this method is innovative, as it relies on the combination of three characteristics: (1) simple multivariate models, (2) a set of exclusively DEM-based descriptors as input, and (3) an existing FH map as reference information. First, the methods are applied to northern Italy, represented with the MERIT DEM (∼90m resolution), and second, to the whole of Italy, represented with the EU-DEM (25m resolution). The results show that multivariate approaches may (a) significantly enhance flood-prone areas delineation relative to a selected univariate one, (b) provide accurate predictions of expected inundation depths, (c) produce encouraging results in extrapolation, (d) complete the information of imperfect reference maps, and (e) conveniently convert binary maps into continuous representation of FH.