A Bayesian changepoint analysis on spatio-temporal point processes

Changepoint analysis is a well established area of statistical research, but in the context of spatio-temporal point processes it is as yet relatively unexplored. Some substantial differences with regard to standard changepoint analysis have to be taken into account: firstly, at every time point the datum is an irregular pattern of points; secondly, in real situations issues of spatial dependence between points and temporal dependence within time segments raise. Our motivating example consists of data concerning the monitoring and recovery of radioactive particles from Sandside beach, North of Scotland; there have been two major changes in the equipment used to detect the particles, representing known potential changepoints in the number of retrieved particles. In addition, offshore particle retrieval campaigns are believed may reduce the particle intensity onshore with an unknown temporal lag; in this latter case, the problem concerns multiple unknown changepoints. We therefore propose a Bayesian approach for detecting multiple changepoints in the intensity function of a spatio-temporal point process, allowing for spatial and temporal dependence within segments. We use Log-Gaussian Cox Processes, a very flexible class of models suitable for environmental applications that can be implemented using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), a computationally efficient alternative to Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods for approximating the posterior distribution of the parameters. Once the posterior curve is obtained, we propose a few methods for detecting significant change points. We present a simulation study, which consists in generating spatio-temporal point pattern series under several scenarios; the performance of the methods is assessed in terms of type I and II errors, detected changepoint locations and accuracy of the segment intensity estimates. We finally apply the above methods to the motivating dataset and find good and sensible results about the presence and quality of changes in the process.

Climate change and the tourism sector: the clean development mechanism, a market instrument under the Kyoto Protocol to achieve multiple objectives

The main objective of this research is to demonstrate that the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), an instrument created under a global international treaty, can achieve multiple objectives beyond those for which it has been established. As such, while being already a powerful tool to contribute to the global fight against climate change, the CDM can also be successful if applied to different sectors not contemplated before. In particular, this research aimed at demonstrating that a wider utilization of the CDM in the tourism sector can represent an innovative way to foster sustainable tourism and generate additional benefits. The CDM was created by Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and represents an innovative tool to reduce greenhouse gases emissions through the implementation of mitigation activities in developing countries which generate certified emission reductions (CERs), each of them equivalent to one ton of CO2 not emitted in the atmosphere. These credits can be used for compliance reasons by industrialized countries in achieving their reduction targets. The logic path of this research begins with an analysis of the scientific evidences of climate change and its impacts on different economic sectors including tourism and it continues with a focus on the linkages between climate and the tourism sector. Then, it analyses the international responses to the issue of climate change and the peculiar activities in the international arena addressing climate change and the tourism sector. The concluding part of the work presents the objectives and achievements of the CDM and its links to the tourism sector by considering case studies of existing projects which demonstrate that the underlying question can be positively answered. New opportunities for the tourism sector are available.

The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

Appartenenze, identità e ruoli di genere negli adolescenti di origine immigrata. Uno studio qualitativo nel territorio di Monza e della Brianza

Starting from the contexts on which the researches about migrant minors and adolescents have been concentrated so far, school, free time, friends, family, society integration, this work puts attention on gender dimension, supporting the ideas that socialization is a life-long process, that gender and gender roles are a cultural construction and the subject has multiple identities. The research aim to understand if being male or female, related with ethnic and cultural origin, influences the identity construction, the gender belonging and roles, the behaviours, in a different way, in interaction with the different everyday contexts. The research points out how being male or female affects: - daily choices, expectations and behaviours inside peer group, family and school; - future expectations as adult inside family, work and society; - idea about the adolescence and the self-decription as adolescent, female, male and immigrant. The analysis highlights that the gender belonging, as the ethnic and cultural belonging, doesn’t drive behaviours, attitudes, expectations totally to tradition or totally to “western way”, in the different everyday contexts. There is rather a combination of these ways, choosing the one or the other way in the different contexts according to be in a position in which there are more or less contacts with the society they live in. Differently, the self perception as adolescent and as individual is relatively independent from gender and ethniccultural belonging, over which prevail the idea of “ peer normality”. Above all, it is important to put in evidence that they are experiencing a very high level of complexity and change as adolescent and migrant or migrant’ son. Personal, cultural and social transitions can explain a large part of variability and our difficulty to construct high defined classifications.

Composti organostannici nell'ambiente marino e membrane biologiche: risposte molecolari e biochimiche nei molluschi bivalvi

Organotin compounds are worldwide diffused environmental contaminants, mainly as consequence of their extensive past use as biocides in antifouling paints. In spite of law restrictions, due to unwanted effects, organotin still persist in waters, being poorly degraded, easily resuspended from sediments and bioaccumulated in exposed organisms. The widespread toxicity and the possible threat to humans, likely to be organotin-exposed through contaminated seafood, make organotin interactions with biomolecules an intriguing biochemical topic, apart from a matter of ecotoxicological concern. Among organotins, tributyltin (TBT) is long known as the most dangerous and abundant chemical species in the Mediterranean Sea. Due to its amphiphilic nature, provided by three lipophilic arms and an electrophilic tin core, TBT can be easily incorporated in biomembranes and affect their functionality. Accordingly, it is known as a membrane-active toxicant and a mitochondrial poison. Up to now the molecular action modes of TBT are still partially unclear and poorly explored in bivalve mollusks, even if the latter play a not neglectable role in the marine trophic chain and efficiently accumulate organotins. The bivalve mollusk Mytilus galloprovincialis, selected for all experiments, is widely cultivated in the Mediterranean and currently used in ecotoxicological studies. Most work of this thesis was devoted to TBT effects on mussel mitochondria, but other possible targets of TBT were also considered. A great deal of literature points out TBT as endocrine disrupter and the masculinization of female marine gastropods, the so-called imposex, currently signals environmental organotin contamination. The hormonal status of TBT-exposed mussels and the possible interaction between hormones and contaminants in modulating microsomal hydroxilases, involved in steroid hormone and organotin detoxification, were the research topics in the period spent in Barcelona (Marco Polo fellowship). The variegated experimental approach, which consisted of two exposure experiments and in vitro tests, and the choice of selected tissues of M. galloprovincialis, the midgut gland for mitochondrial and microsomal preparations for subsequent laboratory assays and the gonads for the endocrine evaluations, aimed at drawing a clarifying pattern on the molecular mechanisms involved in organotin toxicity. TBT was promptly incorporated in midgut gland mitochondria of adult mussels exposed to 0.5 and 1.0 μg/L TBT, and partially degraded to DBT. TBT incorporation was accompanied by a decrease in the mitochondrial oligomycin-sensitive Mg-ATPase activity, while the coexistent oligomycin-insensitive fraction was unaffected. Mitochondrial fatty acids showed a clear rise in n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids after 120 hr of TBT exposure, mainly referable to an increase in 22:6 level. TBT was also shown to inhibit the ATP hydrolytic activity of the mitochondrial F1FO complex in vitro and to promote an apparent loss of oligomycin sensitivity at higher than 1.0 μM concentration. The complex dose-dependent profile of the inhibition curve lead to the hypothesis of multiple TBT binding sites. At lower than 1.0 μM TBT concentrations the non competitive enzyme inhibition by TBT was ascribed to the non covalent binding of TBT to FO subunit. On the other hand the observed drop in oligomycin sensitivity at higher than 1.0 μM TBT could be related to the onset of covalent bonds involving thiolic groups on the enzyme structure, apparently reached only at high TBT levels. The mitochondrial respiratory complexes were in vitro affected by TBT, apart from the cytocrome c oxidase which was apparently refractory to the contaminant. The most striking inhibitory effect was shown on complex I, and ascribed to possible covalent bonds of TBT with –SH groups on the enzyme complexes. This mechanism, shouldered by the progressive decrease of free cystein residues in the presence of increasing TBT concentrations, suggests that the onset of covalent tin-sulphur bonds in distinct protein structures may constitute the molecular basis of widespread TBT effects on mitochondrial complexes. Energy production disturbances, in turn affecting energy consuming mechanisms, could be involved in other cellular changes. Mussels exposed to a wide range of TBT concentrations (20 - 200 and 2000 ng/L respectively) did not show any change in testosterone and estrogen levels in mature gonads. Most hormones were in the non-biologically active esterified form both in control and in TBT-treated mussels. Probably the endocrine status of sexually mature mussels could be refractory even to high TBT doses. In mussel digestive gland the high biological variability of microsomal 7-benzyloxy-4-trifluoromethylcoumarin-O-Debenzyloxylase (BFCOD) activity, taken as a measure of CYP3A-like efficiency, probably concealed any enzyme response to TBT exposure. On the other hand the TBT-driven enhancement of BFCOD activity in vitro was once again ascribed to covalent binding to thiol groups which, in this case, would stimulate the enzyme activity. In mussels from Barcelona harbour, a highly contaminated site, the enzyme showed a decreased affinity for the 7-benzyloxy-4-trifluoromethylcoumarin (BCF) substrate with respect to mussel sampled from Ebro Delta, a non-polluted marine site. Contaminant exposure may thus alter the kinetic features of enzymes involved in detoxification mechanisms. Contaminants and steroid hormones were clearly shown to mutually interact in the modulation of detoxification mechanisms. The xenoestrogen 17α-ethylenyl estradiol (EE2) displayed a non-competitive mixed inhibition of CYP3A-like activity by a preferential bond to the free enzyme both in Barcelona harbour and Ebro Delta mussels. The possible interaction with co-present contaminants in Barcelona harbour mussels apparently lessened the formation of the ternary complex enzyme-EE2-BCF. The whole of data confirms TBT as membrane toxicant in mussels as in other species and stresses TBT covalent binding to protein thiols as a widespread mechanism of membrane-bound-enzyme activity modulation by the contaminant.

Imaging of crustal scatterers using multiple seismic arrays

Array seismology is an useful tool to perform a detailed investigation of the Earth’s interior. Seismic arrays by using the coherence properties of the wavefield are able to extract directivity information and to increase the ratio of the coherent signal amplitude relative to the amplitude of incoherent noise. The Double Beam Method (DBM), developed by Krüger et al. (1993, 1996), is one of the possible applications to perform a refined seismic investigation of the crust and mantle by using seismic arrays. The DBM is based on a combination of source and receiver arrays leading to a further improvement of the signal-to-noise ratio by reducing the error in the location of coherent phases. Previous DBM works have been performed for mantle and core/mantle resolution (Krüger et al., 1993; Scherbaum et al., 1997; Krüger et al., 2001). An implementation of the DBM has been presented at 2D large-scale (Italian data-set for Mw=9.3, Sumatra earthquake) and at 3D crustal-scale as proposed by Rietbrock & Scherbaum (1999), by applying the revised version of Source Scanning Algorithm (SSA; Kao & Shan, 2004). In the 2D application, the rupture front propagation in time has been computed. In 3D application, the study area (20x20x33 km3), the data-set and the source-receiver configurations are related to the KTB-1994 seismic experiment (Jost et al., 1998). We used 60 short-period seismic stations (200-Hz sampling rate, 1-Hz sensors) arranged in 9 small arrays deployed in 2 concentric rings about 1 km (A-arrays) and 5 km (B-array) radius. The coherence values of the scattering points have been computed in the crustal volume, for a finite time-window along all array stations given the hypothesized origin time and source location. The resulting images can be seen as a (relative) joint log-likelihood of any point in the subsurface that have contributed to the full set of observed seismograms.

Collaborative Change: Environmental Jolt, Network (Re)Design and Firm Performance

Motivated by the need to understand which are the underlying forces that trigger network evolution, we develop a multilevel theoretical and empirically testable model to examine the relationship between changes in the external environment and network change. We refer to network change as the dissolution or replacement of an interorganizational tie, adding also the case of the formation of new ties with new or preexisting partners. Previous research has paid scant attention to the organizational consequences of quantum change enveloping entire industries in favor of an emphasis on continuous change. To highlight radical change we introduce the concept of environmental jolt. The September 11 terrorist attacks provide us with a natural experiment to test our hypotheses on the antecedents and the consequences of network change. Since network change can be explained at multiple levels, we incorporate firm-level variables as moderators. The empirical setting is the global airline industry, which can be regarded as a constantly changing network of alliances. The study reveals that firms react to environmental jolts by forming homophilous ties and transitive triads as opposed to the non jolt periods. Moreover, we find that, all else being equal, firms that adopt a brokerage posture will have positive returns. However, we find that in the face of an environmental jolt brokerage relates negatively to firm performance. Furthermore, we find that the negative relationship between brokerage and performance during an environmental jolt is more significant for larger firms. Our findings suggest that jolts are an important predictor of network change, that they significantly affect operational returns and should be thus incorporated in studies of network dynamics.

From core rigidities to dynamic capabilities: the role of external knowledge. A multiple case study

This study focuses on the processes of change that firms undertake to overcome conditions of organizational rigidity and develop new dynamic capabilities, thanks to the contribution of external knowledge. When external contingencies highlight firms’ core rigidities, external actors can intervene in change projects, providing new competences to firms’ managers. Knowledge transfer and organizational learning processes can lead to the development of new dynamic capabilities. Existing literature does not completely explain how these processes develop and how external knowledge providers, as management consultants, influence them. Dynamic capabilities literature has become very rich in the last years; however, the models that explain how dynamic capabilities evolve are not particularly investigated. Adopting a qualitative approach, this research proposes four relevant case studies in which external actors introduce new knowledge within organizations, activating processes of change. Each case study consists of a management consulting project. Data are collected through in-depth interviews with consultants and managers. A large amount of documents supports evidences from interviews. A narrative approach is adopted to account for change processes and a synthetic approach is proposed to compare case studies along relevant dimensions. This study presents a model of capabilities evolution, supported by empirical evidence, to explain how external knowledge intervenes in capabilities evolution processes: first, external actors solve gaps between environmental demands and firms’ capabilities, changing organizational structures and routines; second, a knowledge transfer between consultants and managers leads to the creation of new ordinary capabilities; third, managers can develop new dynamic capabilities through a deliberate learning process that internalizes new tacit knowledge from consultants. After the end of the consulting project, two elements can influence the deliberate learning process: new external contingencies and changes in the perceptions about external actors.

A threshold hypothesis of institutional change: collective action in the Italian Alps during the 13th - 19th centuries.

This dissertation is about collective action issues in common property resources. Its focus is the “threshold hypothesis,” which posits the existence of a threshold in group size that drives the process of institutional change. This hypothesis is tested using a six-century dataset concerning the management of the commons by hundreds of communities in the Italian Alps. The analysis seeks to determine the group size threshold and the institutional changes that occur when groups cross this threshold. There are five main findings. First, the number of individuals in villages remained stable for six centuries, despite the population in the region tripling in the same period. Second, the longitudinal analysis of face-to-face assemblies and community size led to the empirical identification of a threshold size that triggered the transition from informal to more formal regimes to manage common property resources. Third, when groups increased in size, gradual organizational changes took place: large groups split into independent subgroups or structured interactions into multiple layers while maintaining a single formal organization. Fourth, resource heterogeneity seemed to have had no significant impact on various institutional characteristics. Fifth, social heterogeneity showed statistically significant impacts, especially on institutional complexity, consensus, and the relative importance of governance rules versus resource management rules. Overall, the empirical evidence from this research supports the “threshold hypothesis.” These findings shed light on the rationale of institutional change in common property regimes, and clarify the mechanisms of collective action in traditional societies. Further research may generalize these conclusions to other domains of collective action and to present-day applications.

Analysis of technological accidents triggered by natural events (Natech) in the perspective of climate change

The severe accidents deriving from the impact of natural events on industrial installations have become a matter of growing concern in the last decades. In the literature, these events are typically referred to as Natech accidents. Several peculiarities distinguish them from conventional industrial accidents caused by internal factors, such as the possible occurrence of multiple simultaneous failures, and the enhanced probability of cascading events. The research project provides a comprehensive overview of Natech accidents that occurred in the Chemical and Process Industry, allowing for the identification of relevant aspects of Natech events. Quantified event trees and probability of ignition are derived from the collected dataset, providing a step forward in the quantitative risk assessment of Natech accidents. The investigation of past Natech accidents also demonstrated that wildfires may cause technological accidents. Climate change and global warming are promoting the conditions for wildfire development and rapid spread. Hence, ensuring the safety of industrial facilities exposed to wildfires is paramount. This was achieved defining safety distances between wildland vegetation and industrial equipment items. In addition, an innovative methodology for the vulnerability assessment of Natech and Domino scenarios triggered by wildfires was developed. The approach accounted for the dynamic behaviour of wildfire events and related technological scenarios. Besides, the performance of the emergency response and the related intervention time in the case of cascading events caused by natural events were evaluated. Overall, the tools presented in this thesis represent a step forward in the Quantitative Risk Assessment of Natech accidents. The methodologies developed also provide a solid basis for the definition of effective strategies for risk mitigation and reduction. These aspects are crucial to improve the resilience of industrial plants to natural hazards, especially considering the effects that climate change may have on the severity of such events.