Dynamic food systems and climate-induced risks transmission for food and nutritional security

Agriculture market instability impedes achieving the global goal of sustainable and resilient food systems. Currently, the support to producers reaches the mammoth USD 540 billion a year and is projected to reach USD 1.8 trillion by 2030. This gigantic increase requires a repurposing agricultural support strategy (RASS), considering the market country-specific circumstances. These circumstances may vary with geographic locations, marketing structures, and product value chains. The fruit production system is crucial for health-conscious consumers and profit-oriented producers for food and nutritional security. Export is one of the main driving forces behind the expansion of the fruit sector, and during the year 2010-2018, trade significantly outpaced production increases. The previous literature states that irregular and unpredictable behaviour — Chaos — can arise from entirely rational economic decision-making within markets. Different markets' direct/indirect linkages through trade create trade hubs, and uncertainty may function as an avenue to transmit adverse shocks and increase vulnerability rather than contribute to resilience. Therefore, distinguishing Chaos into an endogenous and exogenous pattern of behaviour is cradled to formulate an effective RASS for resilient food systems and to understand global food crises. The present research is aimed at studying the market dynamics of three regional trade hubs, i.e., Brazil (South America), Italy (Europe), and Pakistan (Asia), each representing advanced to traditional value chains to control uncertainty (risks). The present research encompasses 1) a systematic review to highlight the research dynamism and identify grey-areas of research. Based on the findings, we have investigated the 2) nonlinear impacts of climate-induced price responsiveness in monopsony markets. Once we highlighted the importance of marketing structures/arrangements, 3) we developed a risk transmission framework to address the co-evolving impacts in complex dynamic interactions.

Modeling, design and experimental characterization of Micro-Electro-Mechanical-Systems for gas chromatographic applications

Design parameters, process flows, electro-thermal-fluidic simulations and experimental characterizations of Micro-Electro-Mechanical-Systems (MEMS) suited for gas-chromatographic (GC) applications are presented and thoroughly described in this thesis, whose topic belongs to the research activities the Institute for Microelectronics and Microsystems (IMM)-Bologna is involved since several years, i.e. the development of micro-systems for chemical analysis, based on silicon micro-machining techniques and able to perform analysis of complex gaseous mixtures, especially in the field of environmental monitoring. In this regard, attention has been focused on the development of micro-fabricated devices to be employed in a portable mini-GC system for the analysis of aromatic Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) like Benzene, Toluene, Ethyl-benzene and Xylene (BTEX), i.e. chemical compounds which can significantly affect environment and human health because of their demonstrated carcinogenicity (benzene) or toxicity (toluene, xylene) even at parts per billion (ppb) concentrations. The most significant results achieved through the laboratory functional characterization of the mini-GC system have been reported, together with in-field analysis results carried out in a station of the Bologna air monitoring network and compared with those provided by a commercial GC system. The development of more advanced prototypes of micro-fabricated devices specifically suited for FAST-GC have been also presented (silicon capillary columns, Ultra-Low-Power (ULP) Metal OXide (MOX) sensor, Thermal Conductivity Detector (TCD)), together with the technological processes for their fabrication. The experimentally demonstrated very high sensitivity of ULP-MOX sensors to VOCs, coupled with the extremely low power consumption, makes the developed ULP-MOX sensor the most performing metal oxide sensor reported up to now in literature, while preliminary test results proved that the developed silicon capillary columns are capable of performances comparable to those of the best fused silica capillary columns. Finally, the development and the validation of a coupled electro-thermal Finite Element Model suited for both steady-state and transient analysis of the micro-devices has been described, and subsequently implemented with a fluidic part to investigate devices behaviour in presence of a gas flowing with certain volumetric flow rates.

Determinants of child undernutrition in India. A micro-case study to operationalize the Capability Approach

The present research aims at shedding light on the demanding puzzle characterizing the issue of child undernutrition in India. Indeed, the so called ‘Indian development paradox’ identifies the phenomenon according to which higher level of income per capita is recorded alongside a lethargic reduction in the proportion of underweight children aged below three years. Thus, in the time period occurring from 2000 to 2005, real Gross Domestic Production per capita has annually grown at 5.4%, whereas the proportion of children who are underweight has declined from 47% to 46%, a mere one point percent. Such trend opens up the space for discussing the traditionally assumed linkage between income-poverty and undernutrition as well as food intervention as the main focus of policies designed to fight child hunger. Also, it unlocks doors for evaluating the role of an alternative economic approach aiming at explaining undernutrition, such as the Capability Approach. The Capability Approach argues for widening the informational basis to account not only for resources, but also for variables related to liberties, opportunities and autonomy in pursuing what individuals value.The econometric analysis highlights the relevance of including behavioral factors when explaining child undernutrition. In particular, the ability of the mother to move freely in the community without the need of asking permission to her husband or mother-in-law is statistically significant when included in the model, which accounts also for confounding traditional variables, such as economic wealth and food security. Also, focusing on agency, results indicates the necessity of measuring autonomy in different domains and the need of improving the measurement scale for agency data, especially with regards the domain of household duties. Finally, future research is required to investigate policy venues for increasing agency in women and in the communities they live in as viable strategy for reducing the plague of child undernutrition in India.

Assessing Food Security in Selected Mediterranean Countries

Food Security has become an important issue in the international debate, particularly during the latest economic crisis. It relevant issue also for the Mediterranean Countries (MCs), particularly those of the southern shore, as they are is facing complex economic and social changes. On the one hand there is the necessity to satisfy the increasing and changing food demand of the growing population; on the other hand it is important to promote economic growth and adjust the agricultural production to food demand in a sustainable perspective. The assessment of food security conditions is a challenging task due to the multi-dimensional nature and complexity of the matter. Many papers in the scientific literature focus on the nutritional aspects of food security, while its economic issues have been addressed less frequently and only in recent times. Thus, the main objective of the research is to assess food (in)security conditions in the MCs. The study intends to identify and implement appropriate theoretical concepts and methodological tools to be used in the assessment of food security, with a particular emphasis on its economic dimension within MCs. The study follows a composite methodological approach, based on the identification and selection of a number of relevant variables, a refined set of indicators is identified by means of a two-step Principal Component Analysis applied to 90 countries and the PCA findings have been studied with particular attention to the MCs food security situation. The results of the study show that MCs have an higher economic development compared to low-income countries, however the economic and social disparities of this area show vulnerability to food (in)security, due to: dependency on food imports, lack of infrastructure and agriculture investment, climate condition and political stability and inefficiency. In conclusion, the main policy implications of food (in)security conditions in MCs are discussed.

Global and regional sea level variations in the recent past and future: insight from observations and modeling

This work is focused on the analysis of sea–level change (last century), based mainly on instrumental observations. During this period, individual components of sea–level change are investigated, both at global and regional scales. Some of the geophysical processes responsible for current sea-level change such as glacial isostatic adjustments and current melting terrestrial ice sources, have been modeled and compared with observations. A new value of global mean sea level change based of tide gauges observations has been independently assessed in 1.5 mm/year, using corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment obtained with different models as a criterion for the tide gauge selection. The long wavelength spatial variability of the main components of sea–level change has been investigated by means of traditional and new spectral methods. Complex non–linear trends and abrupt sea–level variations shown by tide gauges records have been addressed applying different approaches to regional case studies. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique has been used to analyse tide gauges records from the Adriatic Sea to ascertain the existence of cyclic sea-level variations. An Early Warning approach have been adopted to detect tipping points in sea–level records of North East Pacific and their relationship with oceanic modes. Global sea–level projections to year 2100 have been obtained by a semi-empirical approach based on the artificial neural network method. In addition, a model-based approach has been applied to the case of the Mediterranean Sea, obtaining sea-level projection to year 2050.

Small Area Estimation of Economic Security

The objective of this thesis is the small area estimation of an economic security indicator. Economic security is a complex concept that carries a variety of meanings. In the literature there is no a formal unambiguous definition for economic security and in this work we refer to the definition recently provided for its opposite, economic insecurity, as the “anxiety produced by the possible exposure to adverse economic events and by the anticipation of the difficulty to recover from them” (Bossert and D’Ambrosio, 2013). In the last decade interest for economic insecurity/security has grown constantly, especially since the financial crisis of 2008, but even more in the last year after the economic consequences due to the Covid-19 pandemic. In this research, economic security is measures through a longitudinal indicator that takes into account the income levels of Italian households, from 2014 to 2016. The target areas are groups of Italian provinces, for which the indicator is estimated using longitudinal data taken from EU-SILC survey. We notice that the sample size is too low to obtain reliable estimates for our target areas. Therefore we resort to some Small Area Estimation strategies to improve the reliability of the results. In particular we consider small area models specified at area level. Besides the basic Fay-Herriot area-level model, we propose to consider some longitudinal extensions, including time-specific random effects following an autoregressive processes of order 1 (AR1) and a moving average of order 1 (MA1). We found that all the small area models used show a significant efficiency gain, especially MA1 model.

Governing the water conservation in the Urmia Lake Basin: addressing macro systems’ fit and micro users’ behavior

To change unadapted water governing systems, and water users’ traditional conducts in line with climate change, understanding of systems’ structures and users’ behaviors is necessary. To this aim, comprehensive and pragmatic research was designed and implemented in the Urmia Lake Basin where due to the severe droughts, and human-made influences, especially through the agricultural development, the lake has been shrunken drastically. To analyze the water governance and conservation issues in the basin, an innovative framework was developed based on mathematical physics concepts and pro-environmental behavior theories. Accordingly, in system level (macro/meso), the problem of fit of the early-shaped water governing system associating with the function of “political-security” and “political-economic” factors in the basin was identified through mean-field models. Furthermore, the effect of a “political-environmental” factor, the Urmia Lake Restoration Program (ULRP), on reforming the system structure and hence its fit was assessed. The analysis results revealed that by revising the provincial boundaries (horizontal alternation) for the entity of Kurdistan province to permit that interact with the headquarter of West Azerbaijan province for its water demand-supply initiatives, the system fit can increase. Also, the constitution of the ULRP (vertical arrangement) not only could increase the structural fit of the water governing system to the basin, but also significantly could enhance the system fit through its water-saving policy. Besides, in individual level (micro), the governing factors of water conservation behavior of the major users/farmers were identified through rational and moral socio-psychological models. In rational approach, incorporating PMT and TPB, the SEM results demonstrated that “Perceived Vulnerability”, “Self-Efficacy”, “Response Efficacy”, “Response Cost”, “Subjective Norms” and “Institutional Trust” significantly affect the water-saving intention/behavior. Likewise, NAM based analysis as a moral approach, uncovered the significant effects of “Awareness of Consequences”, “Appraisal of Responsibility”, “Personal Norms” as well as “Place Attachment” and “Emotions” on water-saving intention.

Addressing challenges in heterogeneous embedded systems programming: security and performance

Embedded systems are increasingly integral to daily life, improving and facilitating the efficiency of modern Cyber-Physical Systems which provide access to sensor data, and actuators. As modern architectures become increasingly complex and heterogeneous, their optimization becomes a challenging task. Additionally, ensuring platform security is important to avoid harm to individuals and assets. This study primarily addresses challenges in contemporary Embedded Systems, focusing on platform optimization and security enforcement. The initial section of this study delves into the application of machine learning methods to efficiently determine the optimal number of cores for a parallel RISC-V cluster to minimize energy consumption using static source code analysis. Results demonstrate that automated platform configuration is not only viable but also that there is a moderate performance trade-off when relying solely on static features. The second part focuses on addressing the problem of heterogeneous device mapping, which involves assigning tasks to the most suitable computational device in a heterogeneous platform for optimal runtime. The contribution of this section lies in the introduction of novel pre-processing techniques, along with a training framework called Siamese Networks, that enhances the classification performance of DeepLLVM, an advanced approach for task mapping. Importantly, these proposed approaches are independent from the specific deep-learning model used. Finally, this research work focuses on addressing issues concerning the binary exploitation of software running in modern Embedded Systems. It proposes an architecture to implement Control-Flow Integrity in embedded platforms with a Root-of-Trust, aiming to enhance security guarantees with limited hardware modifications. The approach involves enhancing the architecture of a modern RISC-V platform for autonomous vehicles by implementing a side-channel communication mechanism that relays control-flow changes executed by the process running on the host core to the Root-of-Trust. This approach has limited impact on performance and it is effective in enhancing the security of embedded platforms.