A dynamical system approach to data assimilation in chaotic models

The Assimilation in the Unstable Subspace (AUS) was introduced by Trevisan and Uboldi in 2004, and developed by Trevisan, Uboldi and Carrassi, to minimize the analysis and forecast errors by exploiting the flow-dependent instabilities of the forecast-analysis cycle system, which may be thought of as a system forced by observations. In the AUS scheme the assimilation is obtained by confining the analysis increment in the unstable subspace of the forecast-analysis cycle system so that it will have the same structure of the dominant instabilities of the system. The unstable subspace is estimated by Breeding on the Data Assimilation System (BDAS). AUS- BDAS has already been tested in realistic models and observational configurations, including a Quasi-Geostrophicmodel and a high dimensional, primitive equation ocean model; the experiments include both fixed and“adaptive”observations. In these contexts, the AUS-BDAS approach greatly reduces the analysis error, with reasonable computational costs for data assimilation with respect, for example, to a prohibitive full Extended Kalman Filter. This is a follow-up study in which we revisit the AUS-BDAS approach in the more basic, highly nonlinear Lorenz 1963 convective model. We run observation system simulation experiments in a perfect model setting, and with two types of model error as well: random and systematic. In the different configurations examined, and in a perfect model setting, AUS once again shows better efficiency than other advanced data assimilation schemes. In the present study, we develop an iterative scheme that leads to a significant improvement of the overall assimilation performance with respect also to standard AUS. In particular, it boosts the efficiency of regime’s changes tracking, with a low computational cost. Other data assimilation schemes need estimates of ad hoc parameters, which have to be tuned for the specific model at hand. In Numerical Weather Prediction models, tuning of parameters — and in particular an estimate of the model error covariance matrix — may turn out to be quite difficult. Our proposed approach, instead, may be easier to implement in operational models.

"Water users must be efficient producers". Women's access to and use of land in Chókwè irrigation scheme, Mozambique

The irrigation scheme Eduardo Mondlane, situated in Chókwè District - in the Southern part of the Gaza province and within the Limpopo River Basin - is the largest in the country, covering approximately 30,000 hectares of land. Built by the Portuguese colonial administration in the 1950s to exploit the agricultural potential of the area through cash-cropping, after Independence it became one of Frelimo’s flagship projects aiming at the “socialization of the countryside” and at agricultural economic development through the creation of a state farm and of several cooperatives. The failure of Frelimo’s economic reforms, several infrastructural constraints and local farmers resistance to collective forms of production led to scheme to a state of severe degradation aggravated by the floods of the year 2000. A project of technical rehabilitation initiated after the floods is currently accompanied by a strong “efficiency” discourse from the managing institution that strongly opposes the use of irrigated land for subsistence agriculture, historically a major livelihood strategy for smallfarmers, particularly for women. In fact, the area has been characterized, since the end of the XIX century, by a stable pattern of male migration towards South African mines, that has resulted in an a steady increase of women-headed households (both de jure and de facto). The relationship between land reform, agricultural development, poverty alleviation and gender equality in Southern Africa is long debated in academic literature. Within this debate, the role of agricultural activities in irrigation schemes is particularly interesting considering that, in a drought-prone area, having access to water for irrigation means increased possibilities of improving food and livelihood security, and income levels. In the case of Chókwè, local governments institutions are endorsing the development of commercial agriculture through initiatives such as partnerships with international cooperation agencies or joint-ventures with private investors. While these business models can sometimes lead to positive outcomes in terms of poverty alleviation, it is important to recognize that decentralization and neoliberal reforms occur in the context of financial and political crisis of the State that lacks the resources to efficiently manage infrastructures such as irrigation systems. This kind of institutional and economic reforms risk accelerating processes of social and economic marginalisation, including landlessness, in particular for poor rural women that mainly use irrigated land for subsistence production. The study combines an analysis of the historical and geographical context with the study of relevant literature and original fieldwork. Fieldwork was conducted between February and June 2007 (where I mainly collected secondary data, maps and statistics and conducted preliminary visit to Chókwè) and from October 2007 to March 2008. Fieldwork methodology was qualitative and used semi-structured interviews with central and local Government officials, technical experts of the irrigation scheme, civil society organisations, international NGOs, rural extensionists, and water users from the irrigation scheme, in particular those women smallfarmers members of local farmers’ associations. Thanks to the collaboration with the Union of Farmers’ Associations of Chókwè, she has been able to participate to members’ meeting, to education and training activities addressed to women farmers members of the Union and to organize a group discussion. In Chókwè irrigation scheme, women account for the 32% of water users of the familiar sector (comprising plot-holders with less than 5 hectares of land) and for just 5% of the private sector. If one considers farmers’ associations of the familiar sector (a legacy of Frelimo’s cooperatives), women are 84% of total members. However, the security given to them by the land title that they have acquired through occupation is severely endangered by the use that they make of land, that is considered as “non efficient” by the irrigation scheme authority. Due to a reduced access to marketing possibilities and to inputs, training, information and credit women, in actual fact, risk to see their right to access land and water revoked because they are not able to sustain the increasing cost of the water fee. The myth of the “efficient producer” does not take into consideration the characteristics of inequality and gender discrimination of the neo-liberal market. Expecting small-farmers, and in particular women, to be able to compete in the globalized agricultural market seems unrealistic, and can perpetuate unequal gendered access to resources such as land and water.

Preliminary studies for the establishment of a tsunami early detection algorithm to be used in the frame of a Tsunami Warning System

This thesis presents and discusses TEDA, an algorithm for the automatic detection in real-time of tsunamis and large amplitude waves on sea level records. TEDA has been developed in the frame of the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna for coastal tide gauges and it has been calibrated and tested for the tide gauge station of Adak Island, in Alaska. A preliminary study to apply TEDA to offshore buoys in the Pacific Ocean is also presented.

Characterization and exploiment of Microbial Strains to be used in Meat Processing and Fermentation

The principal aim of this research project has been the evaluation of the specific role of yeasts in ripening processes of dry-cured meat products, i.e. speck and in salami produced by adding Lactobacilli starter cultures, i.e. L. sakei, L. casei, L. fermentum, L. rhamnosus, L.sakei + S.xylosus. In particular the contribution of the predominant yeasts to the hydrolytic patterns of meat proteins has been studied both in model system and in real products. In fact, although several papers have been published on the microbial, enzymatic, aromatic and chemical characterization of dry-cured meat e.g. ham over ripening, the specific role of yeasts has been often underestimated. Therefore this research work has been focused on the following aspects: 1. Characterization of the yeasts and lactic acid bacteria in samples of speck produced by different farms and analyzed during the various production and ripening phases 2. Characterization of the superficial or internal yeasts population in salami produced with or without the use of lactobacilli as starter cultures 3. Molecular characterization of different strains of yeasts and detection of the dominant biotypes able to survive despite environmental stress factors (such as smoke, salt) 4. Study of the proteolytic profiles of speck and salami during the ripening process and comparison with the proteolytic profiles produced in meat model systems by a relevant number of yeasts isolated from speck and salami 5. Study of the proteolytic profiles of Lactobacilli starter cultures in meat model systems 6. Comparative statistical analysis of the proteolytic profiles to find possible relationships between specific bands and peptides and specific microorganisms 7. Evaluation of the aromatic characteristics of speck and salami to assess relationships among the metabolites released by the starter cultures or the dominant microflora

"Daring to be foolish". L'opera poetica di Robert Kroetsch dal 2001 al 2010

La presente dissertazione si pone come oggetto di analisi la produzione poetica di Robert Kroetsch (1927-2011), scrittore e critico letterario canadese nativo dell’Alberta (Canada), che tra il 1960 e il 2010 ha pubblicato un numero notevole di opere (nove romanzi, più di venti opere poetiche tra componimenti singoli e in raccolta, due volumi di saggi e diverse interviste). In particolare si è scelto di focalizzare l’attenzione sulle ultime tre raccolte di poesia – rispettivamente The Hornbooks of Rita K (2001), The Snowbird Poems (2004) e Too Bad: Sketches Toward a Self-Portrait (2010) – che, se confrontate con la produzione precedente, forniscono prova di alcuni elementi di novità all’interno della prospettiva poetica di Kroetsch. L’ipotesi dalla quale trae origine il presente studio è infatti che, a partire dalla raccolta The Hornbooks of Rita K, Kroetsch abbia imboccato un percorso di evoluzione stilistica che corre in parallelo con la formulazione di una nuova poetica. Nello specifico, si osserva che, negli ultimi dieci anni, da un punto di vista formale i componimenti si frammentano progressivamente, passando da una forma lunga – quella del long poem – a una breve – lo sketch, che risulta più adatta a rappresentare sul piano espressivo una mutata percezione dell’Io poetico. A un simile aspetto si aggiunge poi il fatto che la raffigurazione della propria vicenda umana diventa, con sempre maggiore evidenza, motivo di riflessione su una condizione universale dell’umano e sulla dimensione etica del suo agire.

Relationships between plant diversity and environmental heterogeneity in rupicolous grasslands on gypsum. The case study of Alysso-Sedion albi (Habitat 6110).

Plant communities on weathered rock and outcrops are characterized by high values in species richness (Dengler 2006) and often persist on small and fragmented surfaces. Yet very few studies have examined the relationships between heterogeneity and plant diversity at small scales, in particular in poor-nutrient and low productive environment (Shmida and Wilson 1985, Lundholm 2003). In order to assess these relationships both in space and time in relationship, two different approaches were employed in the present study, in two gypsum outcrops of Northern Apennine. Diachronic and synchronic samplings from April 2012 to March 2013 were performed. A 50x50 cm plot was used in both samplings such as the sampling unit base. The diachronic survey aims to investigate seasonal patterning of plant diversity by the use of images analysis techniques integrated with field data and considering also seasonal climatic trend, the substrate quality and its variation in time. The purpose of the further, synchronic sampling was to describe plant diversity pattern as a function of the environmental heterogeneity meaning in substrate typologies, soil depth and topographic features. Results showed that responses of diversity pattern depend both on the resources availability, environmental heterogeneity and the manner in which the different taxonomic group access to them during the year. Species richness and Shannon diversity were positively affected by increasing in substrate heterogeneity. Furthermore a good turnover in seasonal species occurrence was detected. This vegetation may be described by the coexistence of three groups of species which created a gradient from early colonization stages, characterized by greater slope and predominance of bare rock, gradually to situation of more developed soil.

Nuove pratiche turistiche e sostenibilita'. I profili del turista lento in Valnerina

Il presente lavoro intende analizzare il tema del turista lento che nell’ultimo decennio si è diffuso nel dibattito scientifico e culturale connesso al tema della sostenibilità e della qualità della vita e nel contesto dell’approccio teorico strutturato intorno alle nuove tendenze dello Slow Tourism. In una prima parte la tesi delinea il framework della sostenibilità con particolare attenzione al recente dibattito in corso sulla “decrescita” e l’“a-crescita” come concetti alternativi al paradigma della crescita. Successivamente viene evidenziato il modo in cui le idee di base ed i principi dello sviluppo sostenibile sono stati applicati al turismo e indagato il legame tra sostenibilità e responsabilità e come questo configura l’emergere di un turismo “responsustable”. In tale contesto viene analizzata la relazione tra turismo e lentezza in cui a filosofia slow non deve essere interpretata come un fenomeno del momento o un innovativo prodotto turistico, ma come una filosofia di vita, un movimento sociale e globale che negli ultimi anni ha caratterizzato i diversi ambiti socio-economici delle comunità locali. Successivamente attraverso una review della letteratura nazionale ed internazionale sul tema, la pluralità di prospettive teoriche vengono sistematizzate in tre ipotesi di lettura riconducibili a tre paradigmi: sostenibilità- slow tourism- territorio; benessere – slow tourism – qualità della vita; esperienza – slow tourism – consumo. Nella seconda parte del lavoro viene presentata l’indagine empirica a partire dall’analisi di contesto del territorio in cui si è svolta l’attività di ricerca, i nove comuni del Comprensorio Turistico della Valnerina in Umbria, con particolare riferimento all’analisi dell’offerta e della domanda turistica. Successivamente sono presentati i risultati di un questionario somministrato a 620 turisti attraverso il quale viene analizzato il profilo motivazionale, le esperienze di fruizione turistica e la percezione della qualità territoriale da parte del turista e delineato il profilo del turista slow in Valnerina.