6 resultados para long-term survival models

em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna


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Regulatory T cells (Treg) actively regulate alloimmune responses and promote transplantation tolerance. Polyclonal anti-thymocyte globulin (ATG), a widely used induction therapy in clinical organ transplantation, depletes peripheral T cells. However, resistance to tolerance induction is seen with certain T cell depleting strategies and is attributed to alterations in the balance of naïve, memory and regulatory T cells. Here we report a novel reagent, murine ATG (mATG), depletes T cells but preferentially spares CD25+ natural Tregs which limit skewing of T cell repertoire toward T-effector-memory (Tem) phenotype among the recovering T cells. T-cell depletion with mATG combined with CTLA4Ig and Sirolimus synergize to prolong graft survival by tipping the Treg/Tem balance further in favor of Tregs by preserving Tregs, facilitating generation of new Tregs by a conversion mechanism and limiting Tem expansion in response to alloantigen and homeostatic proliferation. These results provide the rationale for translating such novel combination therapies to promote tolerance in primate and human organ transplantation.

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Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).

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The evaluation of chronic activity of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis is critical for determining the impact of chronic stressful situations. The potential use of hair glucocorticoids as a non-invasive, retrospective, biomarker of long term HPA activity is of great interest, and it is gaining acceptance in humans and animals. However, there are still no studies in literature examining hair cortisol concentration in pigs and corticosterone concentration in laboratory rodents. Therefore, we developed and validated, for the first time, a method for measuring hair glucocorticoids concentration in commercial sows and in Sprague-Dawley rats. Our preliminary data demonstrated: 1) a validated and specific washing protocol and extraction assay method with a good sensitivity in both species; 2) the effect of the reproductive phase, housing conditions and seasonality on hair cortisol concentration in sows; 3) similar hair corticosterone concentration in male and female rats; 4) elevated hair corticosterone concentration in response to chronic stress manipulations and chronic ACTH administration, demonstrating that hair provides a good direct index of HPA activity over long periods than other indirect parameters, such adrenal or thymus weight. From these results we believe that this new non-invasive tool needs to be applied to better characterize the overall impact in livestock animals and in laboratory rodents of chronic stressful situations that negatively affect animals welfare. Nevertheless, further studies are needed to improve this methodology and maybe to develop animal models for chronic stress of high interest and translational value in human medicine.

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Fibre Reinforced Concretes are innovative composite materials whose applications are growing considerably nowadays. Being composite materials, their performance depends on the mechanical properties of both components, fibre and matrix and, above all, on the interface. The variables to account for the mechanical characterization of the material, could be proper of the material itself, i.e. fibre and concrete type, or external factors, i.e. environmental conditions. The first part of the research presented is focused on the experimental and numerical characterization of the interface properties and short term response of fibre reinforced concretes with macro-synthetic fibers. The experimental database produced represents the starting point for numerical models calibration and validation with two principal purposes: the calibration of a local constitutive law and calibration and validation of a model predictive of the whole material response. In the perspective of the design of sustainable admixtures, the optimization of the matrix of cement-based fibre reinforced composites is realized with partial substitution of the cement amount. In the second part of the research, the effect of time dependent phenomena on MSFRCs response is studied. An extended experimental campaign of creep tests is performed analysing the effect of time and temperature variations in different loading conditions. On the results achieved, a numerical model able to account for the viscoelastic nature of both concrete and reinforcement, together with the environmental conditions, is calibrated with the LDPM theory. Different type of regression models are also elaborated correlating the mechanical properties investigated, bond strength and residual flexural behaviour, regarding the short term analysis and creep coefficient on time, for the time dependent behaviour, with the variable investigated. The experimental studies carried out emphasize the several aspects influencing the material mechanical performance allowing also the identification of those properties that the numerical approach should consider in order to be reliable.

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This dissertation has two main themes: first, the economic impact of tourism on cities and, secondly, the determinants of European long-run development, with a focus on the pre-Industrial era. The common thread is the attempt to develop economic geography models that incorporate spatial frictions and are liable to be given empirical content. Chapter 1, written in conjunction with G. Alfredo Minerva, provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between tourism and economic activity across Italian municipalities, and lays down the basic elements of an urban theory of tourism in an a-spatial setting. Chapter 2 extends these ideas to a quantitative urban framework to study the economic impact and the welfare consequences of tourism into the city of Venice. The model is given empirical content thanks to a large collection of data at the Census tract level for the Municipality of Venice, and then used to perform counterfactual policty analysis. In chapter 3, with Matteo Santacesaria, we consider a setting where agents are continuously distributed over a two-dimensional heterogeneous geography, and are allowed to do business at a finite set of markets. We study the equilibrium partition of the economic space into a collection of mutually-exclusive market areas, and provide condition for this equilibrium partition to exist and to be unique. Finally, chapter 4 "The rise of (urban) Europe: a Quantitative-Spatial analysis", co-authored with Matteo Cervellati and Alex Lehner, sets up a quantitative economic geography model to understand the roots of the Industrial Revolution, in an attempt to match the evolution of the European urban network, and the corresponding city-size distribution, over the period A.D. 1000-1850. It highlights the importance of agricultural trade across cities for the emergence of large manufacturing hubs.

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Background: The frozen elephant trunk(FET) technique is one of the last evolution in the treatment of complex pathologies of the aortic arch and the descending thoracic aorta.Materials and methods: Between January 2007 and March 2021, a total of 396 patients underwent total aortic arch replacements with the FET technique in our centre.The main indications were thoracic aortic aneurysm(n=104,28.2%), chronic aortic dissection(n=224,53.4%) and acute aortic dissection(n=68, 18.4%). We divided the population in two groups according the position of the distal anastomosis (zone 2 vs zone 3) and the length of the stent graft (< 150 mm vs > 150 mm): conservative group (Zone 2 anastomosis + stent length < 150mm, n. 140 pts) and aggressive group (zone 3 anastomosis + stent length > 150mm, n. 141). Results: The overall 30-day mortality rate was 13%(48/369); the risk factor analysis showed that an aggressive approach was neither a risk factor for major complication (permanent dialysis, tracheostomy, bowel malperfusion and permanent paraplegia) neither for 30-day mortality. The survival rate at 1, 5,10 and 15 years was 87.7%,75%,61.3% and 58.4% respectively. During the follow up, an aortic reintervention was performed in 122 patients (38%), 5 patients received a non-aortic cardiac surgery. Freedom from aortic reintervention at 1-,5- and 10-year was 77%,54% and 44% respectively. The freedom from aortic reintervention was higher in the ‘aggressive’ group (62.5%vs40.0% at 5 years, log-rank=0.056). An aggressive approach was not protective for aortic reintervention at follow up and for death at follow up. Conclusions: The FET technique represents a feasible and efficient option in the treatment of complex thoracic aortic pathologies. An aortic reintervention after FET is very common and the decision-making approach should consider and balance the higher risk of an aggressive approach in terms of post-operative complication versus the higher risk of a second aortic reintervention at follow-up.