Analysis of eruptive and seismic sequences to improve the short-and long-term eruption forecasting

Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).

Variation in peach fruit susceptibility to Monilinia laxa and gene expression

Brown rot caused by Monilinia laxa and Monilinia fructigena is considered one of the most important diseases affecting Prunus species. Although some losses can result from the rotten fruits in the orchard, most of the damage is caused to fruits during the post-harvest phase. Several studies reported that brown rot incidence during fruit development highly varies; it was found that at a period corresponding to the the pit hardening stage, fruit susceptibility drastically decreases, to be quickly restored afterwards. However the molecular basis of this phenomenon is still not well understood. Furthermore, no difference in the rot incidence was found between wound and un-wound fruits, suggesting that resistance associated more to a specifc biochemical response of the fruit, rather than to a higher mechanical resistance. So far, the interaction Monilinia-peach was analyzed through chemical approaches. In this study, a bio-molecular approach was undertaken in order to reveal alteration in gene expression associated to the variation of susceptibility. In this thesis three different methods for gene expression analysis were used to analyze the alterations in gene expression occurring in peach fruits during the pit hardening stage, in a period encompassing the temporary change in Monilinia susceptibility: real time PCR, microarray and cDNA AFLP techniques. In 2005, peach fruits (cv.K2) were weekly harvested during a 19-week long-period, starting from the fourth week after full bloom, until full maturity. At each sampling time, three replicates of 5 fruits each were dipped in the M.laxa conidial suspension or in distilled water, as negative control. The fruits were maintained at room temperature for 3 hours; afterwards, they were peeled with a scalpel; the peel was immediately frozen in liquid nitrogen and transferred to -80 °C until use. The degree of susceptibility of peach fruit to the pathogen was determined on 3 replicates of 20 fruits each, as percentage of infected fruits, after one week at 20 °C. Real time PCR analysis was performed to study the variation in expression of those genes encoding for the enzymes of the phenylpropanoid pathway (phenylalanine ammonia lyase (PAL), chalcone synthase (CHS), cinnamate 4-hydroxylase (C4H), leucoanthocyanidine reductase (LAR), hydroxycinnamoyl CoA quinate hydroxycinnamoyl transferase (HQT) and of the jasmonate pathway, such as lipoxygenase (LOX), both involved in the production of important defense compounds. Alteration in gene expression was monitored on fruit samples of a period encompassing the pit hardening stage and the corresponding temporary resistance to M.laxa infections, weekly, from the 6thto the 12th week after full bloom (AFB) inoculated with M. laxa or mock-inoculated. The data suggest a critical change in the expression level of the phenylpropanoid pathway from the 7th to the 8th week AFB; such change could be directly physiologically associated to the peach growth and it could indirectly determine the decrease of susceptibility of peach fruit to Monilinia rot during the subsequent weeks. To investigate on the transcriptome variation underneath the temporary loss of susceptibility of peach fruits to Monilinia rot, the microarray and the cDNA AFLP techniques were used. The samples harvested on the 8th week AFB (named S, for susceptible ones) and on the 12th week AFB (named R, for resistant ones) were compared, both inoculated or mock-inoculated. The microarray experiments were carried out at the University of Padua (Dept. of Environmental Agronomy and Crop Science), using the μPEACH1.0 microarray together with the suited protocols. The analysis showed that 30 genes (corresponding to the 0.6% of the total sequences (4806) contained in the μPeach1.0 microarray) were found up-regulated and 31 ( 0.6%) down regulated in RH vs. SH fruits. On the other hand, 20 genes (0.4%) were shown to be up-regulated and 13 (0.3%) down-regulated in the RI vs. SI fruit. No genes were found differentially expressed in the mock-inoculated resistant fruits (RH) vs. the inoculated resistant ones (RI). Among the up-regulated genes an ATP sulfurylase, an heat shock protein 70, the major allergen Pru P1, an harpin inducing protein and S-adenosylmethionine decarboxylase were found, conversely among the down-regulated ones, cinnamyl alcohol dehydrogenase, an histidine- containing phosphotransfer protein and the ferritin were found. The microarray experimental results and the data indirectly derived, were tested by Real Time PCR analysis. cDNA AFLP analysis was also performed on the same samples. 339 transcript derived fragments considered significant for Monilinia resistance, were selected, sequenced and classified. Genes potentially involved in cell rescue and defence were well represented (8%); several genes (12.1%) involved in the protein folding, post-transductional modification and genes (9.2%) involved in cellular transport were also found. A further 10.3% of genes were classified as involved in the metabolism of aminoacid, carbohydrate and fatty acid. On the other hand, genes involved in the protein synthesis (5.7%) and in signal transduction and communication (5.7%) were found. Among the most interesting genes found differentially expressed between susceptible and resistant fruits, genes encoding for pathogenesis related (PR) proteins were found. To investigate on the association of Monilinia resistance and PR biological function, the major allergen Pru P1 (GenBank accession AM493970) and its isoform (here named Pru P2), were expressed in heterologous system and in vitro assayed for their anti-microbial activity. The ribonuclease activity of the recombinant Pru P1 and Pru P2 proteins was assayed against peach total RNA. As the other PR10 proteins, they showed a ribonucleolytic activity, that could be important to contrast pathogen penetration. Moreover Pru P1 and Pru P2 recombinant proteins were checked for direct antimicrobial activity. No inhibitory effect of Pru P1 or Pru P2 was detected against the selected fungi.

I dati metereologici per applicazioni energetiche e ambientali

Many energetic and environmental evaluations need appropriate meteorological data, as input to analysis and prevision softwares. In Italy there aren't adeguate meteorological data because, in many cases, they are incomplete, incorrect and also very expensive for a long-term analysis (that needs multi-year data sets). A possible solution to this problem is the use of a Typical Meteorological Year (TRY), generated for specific applications. Nowadays the TRYs have been created, using statistical criteria, just for the analysis of solar energy systems and for predicting the thermal performance of buildings, applying it also to the study of photovoltaic plants (PV), though not specifically created for this type of application. The present research has defined the methodology for the creation of TRYs for different applications. In particular TRYs for environmental and wind plant analysis have been created. This is the innovative aspect of this research, never explored before. In additions, the methodology of the generation for the PV TRYs has been improved. The results are very good and the TRYs generated for these applications are adeguate to characterize the climatic condition of the place over a long period and can be used for energetic and environmental studies.

Il conflitto tra ragione e passioni nel pensiero morale, economico e politico di Bernard Mandeville

Effects of the conflict between reason and passion in Bernard Mandeville’s moral, economic and political thought My PhD dissertation focuses on Bernard Mandeville (1670-1732), a Dutch philosopher who moved to London in his late twenties. The aspect of Mandeville’s thought I take into account in my research is the conflicting relation between reason and passions, and the consequences that Mandeville’s view of this conflict has in the development of his theory of human nature which, I argue, is what grounds his moral, economic and, above all, political theory. According to Mandeville, reason is fundamentally weak. Passions influence with more strength human actions, and, eventually, are the ones which motivate them. The role of reason is merely instrumental, restricted to finding appropriate means in order to reach the desired ends, which are capricious and inconstant, since they all come from unstable passions. Reason cannot take decisions meant to act in the long term, pursuing an object which has not a selfish and temporary nature. There is no possibility, thus, that men’s actions aim just to achieve a good and just society, without their interests being directly involved. The basically selfish root of every desire leads Mandeville to claim that there is neither benevolence nor altruism which guides human behaviour. Hence he expresses a judgement on the moral character of human beings, always busy with their self-satisfaction, and hardly ever considering what would be good on a wider perspective, including other people’s sake. The anthropological features ascribed to men by Mandeville, are those which lead him to prefer a political system where governors are not supposed to have particular abilities, either from an intellectual or from a moral point of view, and peace and order are preserved by the bureaucratic machine, which is meant to work with the least effort on the part of the politicians, and no big harm can be done even by corrupted or wicked governors. This system is adopted with an eye at remedying human deficiencies: Mandeville takes into primary account, when he thinks of how to build a peaceful and functioning society, that everyone is concerned with his selfish interest, and that the rationality of a single politician, or of a group of them belonging to a same generation, cannot find a good “solution” to govern men able to last over the long period, and to work in different ages. This implies a refusal of the Hobbesian theory of the pactum subjectionis, which has the character of a rational and definitive choice, and leads Mandeville to consider the order which arises spontaneously, without any plan or rational intervention.

Ruolo dell'Infliximab nella terapia della colite ulcerosa moderato-severa

Background: Almost 10-15% of patients with active Ulcerative Colitis are refractory to conventional therapy. Infliximab is a treatment of proven efficacy in this group of patients. Aims: To evaluate the role of Inliximab in inducing and maintaining remission in patients with chronically active moderate-severe Ulcerative Colitis. Materials and methods: 53 patients were enrolled, 47 patients entered the study and were treated with a dose of 5 mg/kg. The remission was evaluated through endoscopy and clinical criteria. (Mayo Score). The primary endpoint were clinical and endoscopic remission in moderate-severe Ulcerative Colitis refractory to standard therapy, the secondary out point was the maintenance of remission in the long period. Results: 47 patients started the study, 43 completed the study, 4 dropped out for worsening disease or adverse events; 27 patients were treated with 3 infusions, 9 patients with 4 infusions, 7 patients with > o = 5 infusions. 34 /47 patients (72.3%) were responders 12 (25.5%) improved their symptoms, 22 ( 46.8%) were in remission after the treatment. Among the responders, 21/34 (61.8%) stopped the steroid therapy after 3 infusions, the others reduced the dose or maintained just topic therapy. 13/47 patients (27.7%) were non responders (p <0.001). After 3 months all 22 patients which had reached remission maintained low Mayo Score; 10/12 (83.3%) patients with clinical response maintained their low score, 2 relapsed . Conclusions: Infliximab is a valid therapy for the treatment of Ulcerative Colitis and can avoid surgery in selected patients.

Visual scanning in sports actions: comparison between soccer goalkeepers and judo fighters

Visual search and oculomotor behaviour are believed to be very relevant for athlete performance, especially for sports requiring refined visuo-motor coordination skills. Modern coaches believe that a correct visuo-motor strategy may be part of advanced training programs. In this thesis two experiments are reported in which gaze behaviour of expert and novice athletes were investigated while they were doing a real sport specific task. The experiments concern two different sports: judo and soccer. In each experiment, number of fixations, fixation locations and mean fixation duration (ms) were considered. An observational analysis was done at the end of the paper to see perceptual differences between near and far space. Purpose: The aim of the judo study was to delineate differences in gaze behaviour characteristics between a population of athletes and one of non athletes. Aspects specifically investigated were: search rate, search order and viewing time across different conditions in a real-world task. The second study was aimed at identifying gaze behaviour in varsity soccer goalkeepers while facing a penalty kick executed with instep and inside foot. Then an attempt has been done to compare the gaze strategies of expert judoka and soccer goalkeepers in order to delineate possible differences related to the different conditions of reacting to events occurring in near (peripersonal) or far (extrapersonal) space. Judo Methods: A sample of 9 judoka (black belt) and 11 near judoka (white belt) were studied. Eye movements were recorded at 500Hz using a video based eye tracker (EyeLink II). Each subject participated in 40 sessions for about 40 minutes. Gaze behaviour was considered as average number of locations fixated per trial, the average number of fixations per trial, and mean fixation duration. Soccer Methods: Seven (n = 7) intermediate level male volunteered for the experiment. The kickers and goalkeepers, had at least varsity level soccer experience. The vision-in-action (VIA) system (Vickers 1996; Vickers 2007) was used to collect the coupled gaze and motor behaviours of the goalkeepers. This system integrated input from a mobile eye tracking system (Applied Sciences Laboratories) with an external video of the goalkeeper’s saving actions. The goalkeepers took 30 penalty kicks on a synthetic pitch in accordance with FIFA (2008) laws. Judo Results: Results indicate that experts group differed significantly from near expert for fixations duration, and number of fixations per trial. The expert judokas used a less exhaustive search strategy involving fewer fixations of longer duration than their novice counterparts and focused on central regions of the body. The results showed that in defence and attack situation expert group did a greater number of transitions with respect to their novice counterpart. Soccer Results: We found significant main effect for the number of locations fixated across outcome (goal/save) but not for foot contact (instep/inside). Participants spent more time fixating the areas in instep than inside kick and in goal than in save situation. Mean and standard error in search strategy as a result of foot contact and outcome indicate that the most gaze behaviour start and finish on ball interest areas. Conclusions: Expert goalkeepers tend to spend more time in inside-save than instep-save penalty, differences that was opposite in scored penalty kick. Judo results show that differences in visual behaviour related to the level of expertise appear mainly when the test presentation is continuous, last for a relatively long period of time and present a high level of uncertainty with regard to the chronology and the nature of events. Expert judoist performers “anchor” the fovea on central regions of the scene (lapel and face) while using peripheral vision to monitor opponents’ limb movements. The differences between judo and soccer gaze strategies are discussed on the light of physiological and neuropsychological differences between near and far space perception.

Petrology and geochemistry of Lipari Island (Aeolian archipelago): constraints on magma genesis and evolution

A full set of geochemical and Sr, Nd and Pb isotope data both on bulk-rock and mineral samples is provided for volcanic rocks representative of the whole stratigraphic succession of Lipari Island in the Aeolian archipelago. These data, together with petrographic observations and melt/fluid inclusion investigations from the literature, give outlines on the petrogenesis and evolution of magmas through the magmatic and eruptive history of Lipari. This is the result of nine successive Eruptive Epochs developing between 271 ka and historical times, as derived from recentmost volcanological and stratigraphic studies, combined with available radiometric ages and correlation of tephra layers and marine terrace deposits. These Eruptive Epochs are characterized by distinctive vents partly overlapping in space and time, mostly under control of the main regional tectonic trends (NNW-SSE, N-S and minor E-W). A large variety of lava flows, scoriaceous deposits, lava domes, coulees and pyroclastics are emplaced, ranging in composition through time from calcalkaline (CA) and high-K (HKCA) basaltic andesites to rhyolites. CA and HKCA basaltic andesitic to dacitic magmas were erupted between 271 and 81 ka (Eruptive Epochs 1-6) from volcanic edifices located along the western coast of the island (and subordinately the eastern Monterosa) and the M.Chirica and M.S.Angelo stratocones. These mafic to intermediate magmas mainly evolved through AFC and RAFC processes, involving fractionation of mafic phases, assimilation of wall rocks and mixing with newly injected mafic magmas. Following a 40 ka-long period of volcanic quiescence, the rhyolitic magmas were lately erupted from eruptive vents located in the southern and north-eastern sectors of Lipari between 40 ka and historical times (Eruptive Epochs 7-9). They are suggested to derive from the previous mafic to intermediate melts through AFC processes. During the early phases of rhyolitic magmatism (Eruptive Epochs 7-8), enclaves-rich rocks and banded pumices, ranging in composition from HKCA dacites to low-SiO2 rhyolites were erupted, representing the products of magma mixing between fresh mafic magmas and the fractionated rhyolitic melts. The interaction of mantle-derived magmas with the crust represents an essential process during the whole magmatic hystory of Lipari, and is responsible for the wide range of observed geochemical and isotopic variations. The crustal contribution was particularly important during the intermediate phases of activity of Lipari when the cordierite-bearing lavas were erupted from the M. S.Angelo volcano (Eruptive Epoch 5, 105 ka). These lavas are interpreted as the result of mixing and subsequent hybridization of mantle-derived magmas, akin to the ones characterizing the older phases of activity of Lipari (Eruptive Epochs 1-4), and crustal anatectic melts derived from dehydration-melting reactions of metapelites in the lower crust. A comparison between the adjacent islands of Lipari and Vulcano outlines that their mafic to intermediate magmas seem to be genetically connected and derive from a similar mantle source affected by different degrees of partial melting (and variable extent of crustal assimilation) producing either the CA magmas of Lipari (higher degrees) or the HKCA to SHO magmas of Vulcano (lower degrees). On a regional scale, the most primitive rocks (SiO2<56%, MgO>3.5%) of Lipari, Vulcano, Salina and Filicudi are suggested to derive from a similar MORB-like source, variably metasomatized by aqueous fluids coming from the slab and subordinately by the additions of sediments.

Luis Arana e i veterani di Euzkeldun Batzokija: la corrente ortodossa del nazionalismo basco

La tesi di Marco Perez intitolata “Luis Arana e i veterani di Euzkeldun Batzokija: la corrente ortodossa del nazionalismo basco”, può essere considerata come la biografia politica di uno dei personaggi più importanti del nazionalismo basco. Il lavoro di ricerca si centra fondamentalmente sull'ispiratore del nazionalismo euskaldun (e cofondatore del Partido Nacionalista Vasco) e della corrente che ne accompagnò e sostenne l'azione politica. Euzkeldun Batzokija fu il nome dato al primo circolo del PNV, fondato da Luis e Sabino Arana nel 1894. Successivamente, gli statuti del circolo e i suoi membri veterani furono presi come modello del nazionalismo primordiale (che si pretendeva definire sull'esempio dell'Ordine gesuita). Sul piano organizzativo la tesi si divide in sette capitoli che ricostruiscono il percorso politico di Luis Arana, dai primi documenti del 1879 fino alle ultime lettere inviate negli anni quaranta. Si tratta di un lungo periodo, che comprende momenti diversi della storia spagnola (dalle guerre carliste alla Guerra Civile spagnola) e del movimento aranista. In questo senso, sulla base di una generale e comparata riflessione sul nazionalismo, si analizza il movimento basco nei suoi rapporti con la modernità. Una realazione costruita attraverso concetti “diacronicamente” legati a un passato mitico e leggendario e comunque subalterna ai rapporti di forza tra le correnti del PNV. La corrente ortodossa fece sempre riferimento al nazionalismo “originario” (definito dai fratelli Arana nei primi anni del movimento) che fu un'espressione regionale del nazionalcattolicesimo spagnolo. Fu proprio Luis Arana a ricordare la finalità religiosa ed etnica del nazionalismo basco, respingendo qualsiasi aggiornamento teorico e organizzativo del PNV, intesi come una grave violazione dell'ortodossia aranista.

Hair: a tool to evaluate the HPA axis activity

Hair cortisol is a novel marker to measure long-term secretion cortisol free from many methodological caveats associated with other matrices such as plasma, saliva, urine, milk and faeces. For decades hair analysis has been successfully used in forensic science and toxicology to evaluate the exposure to exogenous substances and assess endogenous steroid hormones. Evaluation of cortisol in hair matrix began about a decade ago and have over the past five years had a remarkable development by advancing knowledge and affirming this method as a new and efficient way to study the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis activity over a long time period. In farm animals, certain environmental or management conditions can potentially activate the HPA axis. Given the importance of cortisol in monitoring the HPA axis activity, a first approach has involved the study on the distribution of hair cortisol concentrations (HCC) in healthy dairy cows showing a physiological range of variation of this hormone. Moreover, HCC have been significantly influenced also by changes in environmental conditions and a significant positive correlation was detected between HCC and cows clinically or physiologically compromised suggesting that these cows were subjected to repeated HPA axis activation. Additionally, Crossbreed F1 heifers showed significantly lower HCC compared to pure animals and a breed influence has been seen also on the HPA axis activity stimulated by an environmental change showing thus a higher level of resilience and a better adaptability to the environment of certain genotypes. Hair proved to be an excellent matrix also in the study of the activation of the HPA axis during the perinatal period. The use of hair analysis in research holds great promise to significantly enhance current understanding on the role of HPA axis over a long period of time.

Toward a Magnitude Scale for Low Frequency Seismicity The LP energy for Campi Flegrei caldera

The energy released during a seismic crisis in volcanic areas is strictly related to the physical processes in the volcanic structure. In particular Long Period seismicity, that seems to be related to the oscillation of a fluid-filled crack (Chouet , 1996, Chouet, 2003, McNutt, 2005), can precedes or accompanies an eruption. The present doctoral thesis is focused on the study of the LP seismicity recorded in the Campi Flegrei volcano (Campania, Italy) during the October 2006 crisis. Campi Flegrei Caldera is an active caldera; the combination of an active magmatic system and a dense populated area make the Campi Flegrei a critical volcano. The source dynamic of LP seismicity is thought to be very different from the other kind of seismicity ( Tectonic or Volcano Tectonic): it’s characterized by a time sustained source and a low content in frequency. This features implies that the duration–magnitude, that is commonly used for VT events and sometimes for LPs as well, is unadapted for LP magnitude evaluation. The main goal of this doctoral work was to develop a method for the determination of the magnitude for the LP seismicity; it’s based on the comparison of the energy of VT event and LP event, linking the energy to the VT moment magnitude. So the magnitude of the LP event would be the moment magnitude of a VT event with the same energy of the LP. We applied this method to the LP data-set recorded at Campi Flegrei caldera in 2006, to an LP data-set of Colima volcano recorded in 2005 – 2006 and for an event recorded at Etna volcano. Experimenting this method to lots of waveforms recorded at different volcanoes we tested its easy applicability and consequently its usefulness in the routinely and in the quasi-real time work of a volcanological observatory.

Inversion of low frequency seismo-volcanic events

The inversion of seismo-volcanic events is performed to retrieve the source geometry and to determine volumetric budgets of the source. Such observations have shown to be an important tool for the seismological monitoring of volcanoes. We developed a novel technique for the non-linear constrained inversion of low frequency seismo-volcanic events. Unconstrained linear inversion methods work well when a dense network of broadband seismometers is available. We propose a new constrained inversion technique, which has shown to be efficient also in a reduced network configuration and a low signal-noise ratio. The waveform inversion is performed in the frequency domain, constraining the source mechanism during the event to vary only in its magnitude. The eigenvectors orientation and the eigenvalue ratio are kept constant. This significantly reduces the number of parameters to invert, making the procedure more stable. The method has been tested over a synthetic dataset, reproducing realistic very-long-period (VLP) signals of Stromboli volcano. The information obtained by performing the synthetic tests is used to assess the reliability of the results obtained on a VLP dataset recorded on Stromboli volcano and on a low frequency events recorded at Vesuvius volcano.