An analysis of the regulatory chill hypothesis: environmental protection in international investment law

The goal of this thesis has been to find out whether ISDS and international investment law exert a chilling effect on more stringent environmental standards at the domestic level. Due to the lack of consistent empirical and statistical evidence uncovered during the analysis, this thesis largely dismisses the regulatory chill hypothesis. However, two exceptions are identified: first, there is evidence of the efforts made by domestic industrial groups and trade unions to prevent the implementation of stricter environmental standards; second, it has become apparent that unfounded beliefs, e.g. about ISDS, held by lawmakers and regulators can play an important role in chilling stricter environmental standards. For these reasons, a new and narrower definition of the regulatory chill phenomenon has been proposed, one that only encompasses those instances in which lawmakers, governments and government agencies refrain from adopting the laws and regulations that they deem the most appropriate because they believe that doing so would lead to adverse consequences at the international trade and investment level, despite a lack of consistent and robust evidence supporting their concerns. The second part of this thesis focusses on what could be done in international economic law to promote environmentally friendly FDI, while preventing the few instances in which regulatory chill may take place due to ill-founded beliefs held by lawmakers and regulators. Following an analysis that highlights the paramount role played by public participation and responsive institutions to achieve an appropriate level of environmental protection, this study ends with a proposal that recommends the adoption of a clause within IIAs that makes pre-investment environmental screening mandatory and free from ISDS oversight.

International openness in transition countries: further evidence on foreign direct investment

The thesis focuses on the process of international openness of Transition Countries. This study provides a theoretical analysis based on reference literature, and an empirical analysis which is aimed at estimating some main effects of Foreign Direct Investment. Transition has represented a highly complex phenomenon, characterized by several aspects, whose interaction has shaped the developmental path of each country involved. Although the thesis focuses on economic issues it is outstanding to underline that Transition implies political, institutional, and even social deep changes, which must be taken into consideration in the general overview of the contex. The empirical part has been developed along two different ways: a country analysis and a firm analysis, thus allowing to widen the study and delve deeper into the use of econometric instruments. More specifically, in the first empirical stage both static (Fixed Effects) and dynamic (LSDV Corrected) methodologies have been implemented, whereas in the second stage the Cox Proportional Function has been chosen in order to handle with censored data.

Banking Regulation in Turkey and Russia: An Economic Analysis

The importance of the banks and financial markets relies on the fact that they promote economic efficiency by allocating savings efficiently to profitable investment opportunities.An efficient banking system is a key determinant for the financial stability.The theory of market failure forms the basis for understanding financial regulation.Following the detrimental economic and financial consequences in theaftermath of the crisis, academics and policymakers started to focus their attention on the construction of an appropriate regulatory and supervisory framework of the banking sector. This dissertation aims at understanding the impact of regulations and supervision on banks’ performance focusing on two emerging market economies, Turkey and Russia. It aims at examining the way in which regulations matter for financial stability and banking performance from a law & economics perspective. A review of the theory of banking regulation, particularly as applied to emerging economies, shows that the efficiency of certain solutions regarding banking regulation is open to debate. Therefore, in the context of emerging countries, whether a certain approach is efficient or not will be presented as an empirical question to which this dissertation will try to find an answer.

Scenari finanziari e portafogli ottimi: modelli di previsione e strategie per l'asset allocation tattica

Le scelte di asset allocation costituiscono un problema ricorrente per ogni investitore. Quest’ultimo è continuamente impegnato a combinare diverse asset class per giungere ad un investimento coerente con le proprie preferenze. L’esigenza di supportare gli asset manager nello svolgimento delle proprie mansioni ha alimentato nel tempo una vasta letteratura che ha proposto numerose strategie e modelli di portfolio construction. Questa tesi tenta di fornire una rassegna di alcuni modelli innovativi di previsione e di alcune strategie nell’ambito dell’asset allocation tattica, per poi valutarne i risvolti pratici. In primis verificheremo la sussistenza di eventuali relazioni tra la dinamica di alcune variabili macroeconomiche ed i mercati finanziari. Lo scopo è quello di individuare un modello econometrico capace di orientare le strategie dei gestori nella costruzione dei propri portafogli di investimento. L’analisi prende in considerazione il mercato americano, durante un periodo caratterizzato da rapide trasformazioni economiche e da un’elevata volatilità dei prezzi azionari. In secondo luogo verrà esaminata la validità delle strategie di trading momentum e contrarian nei mercati futures, in particolare quelli dell’Eurozona, che ben si prestano all’implementazione delle stesse, grazie all’assenza di vincoli sulle operazioni di shorting ed ai ridotti costi di transazione. Dall’indagine emerge che entrambe le anomalie si presentano con carattere di stabilità. I rendimenti anomali permangono anche qualora vengano utilizzati i tradizionali modelli di asset pricing, quali il CAPM, il modello di Fama e French e quello di Carhart. Infine, utilizzando l’approccio EGARCH-M, verranno formulate previsioni sulla volatilità dei rendimenti dei titoli appartenenti al Dow Jones. Quest’ultime saranno poi utilizzate come input per determinare le views da inserire nel modello di Black e Litterman. I risultati ottenuti, evidenziano, per diversi valori dello scalare tau, extra rendimenti medi del new combined vector superiori al vettore degli extra rendimenti di equilibrio di mercato, seppur con livelli più elevati di rischio.

On the Efficiency of the Benchmarks Used in the Asset Management

In this work we studied the efficiency of the benchmarks used in the asset management industry. In chapter 2 we analyzed the efficiency of the benchmark used for the government bond markets. We found that for the Emerging Market Bonds an equally weighted index for the country weights is probably the more suited because guarantees maximum diversification of country risk but for the Eurozone government bond market we found a GDP weighted index is better because the most important matter is to avoid a higher weight for highly indebted countries. In chapter 3 we analyzed the efficiency of a Derivatives Index to invest in the European corporate bond market instead of a Cash Index. We can state that the two indexes are similar in terms of returns, but that the Derivatives Index is less risky because it has a lower volatility, has values of skewness and kurtosis closer to those of a normal distribution and is a more liquid instrument, as the autocorrelation is not significant. In chapter 4 it is analyzed the impact of fallen angels on the corporate bond portfolios. Our analysis investigated the impact of the month-end rebalancing of the ML Emu Non Financial Corporate Index for the exit of downgraded bond (the event). We can conclude a flexible approach to the month-end rebalancing is better in order to avoid a loss of valued due to the benchmark construction rules. In chapter 5 we did a comparison between the equally weighted and capitalization weighted method for the European equity market. The benefit which results from reweighting the portfolio into equal weights can be attributed to the fact that EW portfolios implicitly follow a contrarian investment strategy, because they mechanically rebalance away from stocks that increase in price.

Portfolio Approaches in Constraint Programming

Recent research has shown that the performance of a single, arbitrarily efficient algorithm can be significantly outperformed by using a portfolio of —possibly on-average slower— algorithms. Within the Constraint Programming (CP) context, a portfolio solver can be seen as a particular constraint solver that exploits the synergy between the constituent solvers of its portfolio for predicting which is (or which are) the best solver(s) to run for solving a new, unseen instance. In this thesis we examine the benefits of portfolio solvers in CP. Despite portfolio approaches have been extensively studied for Boolean Satisfiability (SAT) problems, in the more general CP field these techniques have been only marginally studied and used. We conducted this work through the investigation, the analysis and the construction of several portfolio approaches for solving both satisfaction and optimization problems. We focused in particular on sequential approaches, i.e., single-threaded portfolio solvers always running on the same core. We started from a first empirical evaluation on portfolio approaches for solving Constraint Satisfaction Problems (CSPs), and then we improved on it by introducing new data, solvers, features, algorithms, and tools. Afterwards, we addressed the more general Constraint Optimization Problems (COPs) by implementing and testing a number of models for dealing with COP portfolio solvers. Finally, we have come full circle by developing sunny-cp: a sequential CP portfolio solver that turned out to be competitive also in the MiniZinc Challenge, the reference competition for CP solvers.