Modelli non lineari statici e dinamici su dati microeconomici: analisi delle condizioni finanziarie delle famiglie italiane

The thesis studies the economic and financial conditions of Italian households, by using microeconomic data of the Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) over the period 1998-2006. It develops along two lines of enquiry. First it studies the determinants of households holdings of assets and liabilities and estimates their correlation degree. After a review of the literature, it estimates two non-linear multivariate models on the interactions between assets and liabilities with repeated cross-sections. Second, it analyses households financial difficulties. It defines a quantitative measure of financial distress and tests, by means of non-linear dynamic probit models, whether the probability of experiencing financial difficulties is persistent over time. Chapter 1 provides a critical review of the theoretical and empirical literature on the estimation of assets and liabilities holdings, on their interactions and on households net wealth. The review stresses the fact that a large part of the literature explain households debt holdings as a function, among others, of net wealth, an assumption that runs into possible endogeneity problems. Chapter 2 defines two non-linear multivariate models to study the interactions between assets and liabilities held by Italian households. Estimation refers to a pooling of cross-sections of SHIW. The first model is a bivariate tobit that estimates factors affecting assets and liabilities and their degree of correlation with results coherent with theoretical expectations. To tackle the presence of non normality and heteroskedasticity in the error term, generating non consistent tobit estimators, semi-parametric estimates are provided that confirm the results of the tobit model. The second model is a quadrivariate probit on three different assets (safe, risky and real) and total liabilities; the results show the expected patterns of interdependence suggested by theoretical considerations. Chapter 3 reviews the methodologies for estimating non-linear dynamic panel data models, drawing attention to the problems to be dealt with to obtain consistent estimators. Specific attention is given to the initial condition problem raised by the inclusion of the lagged dependent variable in the set of explanatory variables. The advantage of using dynamic panel data models lies in the fact that they allow to simultaneously account for true state dependence, via the lagged variable, and unobserved heterogeneity via individual effects specification. Chapter 4 applies the models reviewed in Chapter 3 to analyse financial difficulties of Italian households, by using information on net wealth as provided in the panel component of the SHIW. The aim is to test whether households persistently experience financial difficulties over time. A thorough discussion is provided of the alternative approaches proposed by the literature (subjective/qualitative indicators versus quantitative indexes) to identify households in financial distress. Households in financial difficulties are identified as those holding amounts of net wealth lower than the value corresponding to the first quartile of net wealth distribution. Estimation is conducted via four different methods: the pooled probit model, the random effects probit model with exogenous initial conditions, the Heckman model and the recently developed Wooldridge model. Results obtained from all estimators accept the null hypothesis of true state dependence and show that, according with the literature, less sophisticated models, namely the pooled and exogenous models, over-estimate such persistence.

Social Cognition: New Insights from Affordance and Simon Effects

The perspective of the present project can be inscribed in the so-called “Social Cognition” framework, that in the last years moved from a focus on the individual mind toward embodied and participatory aspects of social understanding. Among the topics relevant for social cognition, the aim of the thesis was to shed more light on motor resonance and joint action, by using two well-known effects of cognitive psychology: “Affordance” and “Simon”. In the first part of the project, the Affordance effect has been considered, starting from Gibson to some post-Gibsonian theorizations. Particular attention has received the notion of “Micro-affordance”. The theoretical and empirical overview allows to understand how it can be possible to use the affordance effect to investigate the issue of motor resonance. A first study employed a priming paradigm and explored both in adults and school-age children the influence of a micro-affordance that can be defined dangerousness, and how motor resonance develops. The second part of the thesis focused on the Simon effect, starting with the presentation of the “stimulus–response (S–R) compatibility effect” to introduce the “Simon effect”. Particular attention has been dedicated to recent studies on the “joint Simon effect”. The reviewed empirical findings have been discussed in a wider theoretical perspective on joint action. The second study was aimed at investigating whether shared representations, as indexed by the presence of the joint Simon effect, are modulated by minimal ingroup–outgroup distinctions and by experienced interdependence between participants. The third study explored to what extent prior experience could modulate performance in task sharing, combining two paradigms of cognitive psychology, the joint Simon and the joint transfer-of-learning. In a general discussion the results obtained in the three studies have been summarized, emphasizing their original contribution and their importance within the Social Cognition research.

L'amministrazione Johnson e le origini della distensione. 1964-1968

La tesi analizza una parte della politica estera dell’amministrazione Johnson, e più specificamente l’avvio del dialogo con l’Urss in materia di non proliferazione e controllo degli armamenti e la revisione della China policy, inquadrando entrambe nell’adattamento della cold war strategy all’evoluzione sistema internazionale, argomentando che la distensione intesa come rilassamento delle tensioni e ricerca di terreno comune per il dialogo, fosse perlomeno uno degli strumenti politici che l’amministrazione scelse di usare. Il primo capitolo analizza i cambiamenti che interessarono il Blocco sovietico e il movimento comunista internazionale tra la fine degli anni Cinquanta e l’inizio degli anni Sessanta, soprattutto la rottura dell’alleanza sino-sovietica, e l’impatto che essi ebbero sul sistema bipolare su cui si basava la Guerra Fredda. Il capitolo secondo affronta più specificamente l’evoluzione delle relazioni tra Stati Uniti e Unione Sovietica, il perseguimento di una politica di distensione, dopo la crisi dei missili cubani, e in che relazione si trovasse ciò con lo status della leadership sovietica a seguito dei cambiamenti che avevano avuto luogo. Soffermandosi sulla questione del controllo degli armamenti e sul percorso che portò alla firma del Trattato di Non-proliferazione, si analizza come la nuova rotta intrapresa col dialogo sulle questioni strategiche sia stato anche un cambiamento di rotta in generale nella concezione della Guerra Fredda e l’introduzione della distensione come strumento politico. Il terzo capitolo affronta la questione della modifica della politica verso Pechino e il processo tortuoso e contorto attraverso cui l’amministrazione Johnson giunse a distaccarsi dalla China policy seguita sino ad allora.