Model selection and the vectorial misspecification-resistant information criterion in multivariate time series

The thesis deals with the problem of Model Selection (MS) motivated by information and prediction theory, focusing on parametric time series (TS) models. The main contribution of the thesis is the extension to the multivariate case of the Misspecification-Resistant Information Criterion (MRIC), a criterion introduced recently that solves Akaike’s original research problem posed 50 years ago, which led to the definition of the AIC. The importance of MS is witnessed by the huge amount of literature devoted to it and published in scientific journals of many different disciplines. Despite such a widespread treatment, the contributions that adopt a mathematically rigorous approach are not so numerous and one of the aims of this project is to review and assess them. Chapter 2 discusses methodological aspects of MS from information theory. Information criteria (IC) for the i.i.d. setting are surveyed along with their asymptotic properties; and the cases of small samples, misspecification, further estimators. Chapter 3 surveys criteria for TS. IC and prediction criteria are considered for: univariate models (AR, ARMA) in the time and frequency domain, parametric multivariate (VARMA, VAR); nonparametric nonlinear (NAR); and high-dimensional models. The MRIC answers Akaike’s original question on efficient criteria, for possibly-misspecified (PM) univariate TS models in multi-step prediction with high-dimensional data and nonlinear models. Chapter 4 extends the MRIC to PM multivariate TS models for multi-step prediction introducing the Vectorial MRIC (VMRIC). We show that the VMRIC is asymptotically efficient by proving the decomposition of the MSPE matrix and the consistency of its Method-of-Moments Estimator (MoME), for Least Squares multi-step prediction with univariate regressor. Chapter 5 extends the VMRIC to the general multiple regressor case, by showing that the MSPE matrix decomposition holds, obtaining consistency for its MoME, and proving its efficiency. The chapter concludes with a digression on the conditions for PM VARX models.

Microscopic Modeling on complex networks

The field of complex systems is a growing body of knowledge, It can be applied to countless different topics, from physics to computer science, biology, information theory and sociology. The main focus of this work is the use of microscopic models to study the behavior of urban mobility, which characteristics make it a paradigmatic example of complexity. In particular, simulations are used to investigate phase changes in a finite size open Manhattan-like urban road network under different traffic conditions, in search for the parameters to identify phase transitions, equilibrium and non-equilibrium conditions . It is shown how the flow-density macroscopic fundamental diagram of the simulation shows,like real traffic, hysteresis behavior in the transition from the congested phase to the free flow phase, and how the different regimes can be identified studying the statistics of road occupancy.

Mathematical methods to analyze and interpret calcium signals of astrocytes

Astrocytes are the most numerous glial cell type in the mammalian brain and permeate the entire CNS interacting with neurons, vasculature, and other glial cells. Astrocytes display intracellular calcium signals that encode information about local synaptic function, distributed network activity, and high-level cognitive functions. Several studies have investigated the calcium dynamics of astrocytes in sensory areas and have shown that these cells can encode sensory stimuli. Nevertheless, only recently the neuro-scientific community has focused its attention on the role and functions of astrocytes in associative areas such as the hippocampus. In our first study, we used the information theory formalism to show that astrocytes in the CA1 area of the hippocampus recorded with 2-photon fluorescence microscopy during spatial navigation encode spatial information that is complementary and synergistic to information encoded by nearby "place cell" neurons. In our second study, we investigated various computational aspects of applying the information theory formalism to astrocytic calcium data. For this reason, we generated realistic simulations of calcium signals in astrocytes to determine optimal hyperparameters and procedures of information measures and applied them to real astrocytic calcium imaging data. Calcium signals of astrocytes are characterized by complex spatiotemporal dynamics occurring in subcellular parcels of the astrocytic domain which makes studying these cells in 2-photon calcium imaging recordings difficult. However, current analytical tools which identify the astrocytic subcellular regions are time consuming and extensively rely on user-defined parameters. Here, we present Rapid Astrocytic calcium Spatio-Temporal Analysis (RASTA), a novel machine learning algorithm for spatiotemporal semantic segmentation of 2-photon calcium imaging recordings of astrocytes which operates without human intervention. We found that RASTA provided fast and accurate identification of astrocytic cell somata, processes, and cellular domains, extracting calcium signals from identified regions of interest across individual cells and populations of hundreds of astrocytes recorded in awake mice.

A Unitary Approach to Information and Estimation Theory in Digital Communication Systems

This thesis presents the outcomes of a Ph.D. course in telecommunications engineering. It is focused on the optimization of the physical layer of digital communication systems and it provides innovations for both multi- and single-carrier systems. For the former type we have first addressed the problem of the capacity in presence of several nuisances. Moreover, we have extended the concept of Single Frequency Network to the satellite scenario, and then we have introduced a novel concept in subcarrier data mapping, resulting in a very low PAPR of the OFDM signal. For single carrier systems we have proposed a method to optimize constellation design in presence of a strong distortion, such as the non linear distortion provided by satellites' on board high power amplifier, then we developed a method to calculate the bit/symbol error rate related to a given constellation, achieving an improved accuracy with respect to the traditional Union Bound with no additional complexity. Finally we have designed a low complexity SNR estimator, which saves one-half of multiplication with respect to the ML estimator, and it has similar estimation accuracy.

Low Correlated Sequences & Architectures and Algorithms for Analog-to-Information Converters: Theory, Design, Implementation and Applications.

Most electronic systems can be described in a very simplified way as an assemblage of analog and digital components put all together in order to perform a certain function. Nowadays, there is an increasing tendency to reduce the analog components, and to replace them by operations performed in the digital domain. This tendency has led to the emergence of new electronic systems that are more flexible, cheaper and robust. However, no matter the amount of digital process implemented, there will be always an analog part to be sorted out and thus, the step of converting digital signals into analog signals and vice versa cannot be avoided. This conversion can be more or less complex depending on the characteristics of the signals. Thus, even if it is desirable to replace functions carried out by analog components by digital processes, it is equally important to do so in a way that simplifies the conversion from digital to analog signals and vice versa. In the present thesis, we have study strategies based on increasing the amount of processing in the digital domain in such a way that the implementation of analog hardware stages can be simplified. To this aim, we have proposed the use of very low quantized signals, i.e. 1-bit, for the acquisition and for the generation of particular classes of signals.

Local home bias: Theory and new empirical evidence from Italy

This thesis examines the literature on local home bias, i.e. investor preference towards geographically nearby stocks, and investigates the role of firm’s visibility, profitability, and opacity in explaining such behavior. While firm’s visibility is expected to proxy for the behavioral root originating such a preference, firm’s profitability and opacity are expected to capture the informational one. I find that less visible, and more profitable and opaque firms, conditionally to the demand, benefit from being headquartered in regions characterized by a scarcity of listed firms (local supply of stocks). Specifically, research estimates suggest that firms headquartered in regions with a poor supply of stocks would be worth i) 11 percent more if non-visible, non-profitable and non-opaque; ii) 16 percent more if profitable; and iii) 28 percent more if both profitable and opaque. Overall, as these features are able to explain most, albeit not all, of the local home bias effect, I reasonably argue and then assess that most of the preference for local is determined by a successful attempt to exploit local information advantage (60 percent), while the rest is determined by a mere (irrational) feeling of familiarity with the local firm (40 percent). Several and significant methodological, theoretical, and practical implications come out.

On the renormalization flow representation of field theory and some applications

In this thesis we discuss a representation of quantum mechanics and quantum and statistical field theory based on a functional renormalization flow equation for the one-particle-irreducible average effective action, and we employ it to get information on some specific systems.

Coordination and Control of Autonomous Mobile Robots Swarms by using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm and Consensus Theory

This thesis presents some different techniques designed to drive a swarm of robots in an a-priori unknown environment in order to move the group from a starting area to a final one avoiding obstacles. The presented techniques are based on two different theories used alone or in combination: Swarm Intelligence (SI) and Graph Theory. Both theories are based on the study of interactions between different entities (also called agents or units) in Multi- Agent Systems (MAS). The first one belongs to the Artificial Intelligence context and the second one to the Distributed Systems context. These theories, each one from its own point of view, exploit the emergent behaviour that comes from the interactive work of the entities, in order to achieve a common goal. The features of flexibility and adaptability of the swarm have been exploited with the aim to overcome and to minimize difficulties and problems that can affect one or more units of the group, having minimal impact to the whole group and to the common main target. Another aim of this work is to show the importance of the information shared between the units of the group, such as the communication topology, because it helps to maintain the environmental information, detected by each single agent, updated among the swarm. Swarm Intelligence has been applied to the presented technique, through the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (PSO), taking advantage of its features as a navigation system. The Graph Theory has been applied by exploiting Consensus and the application of the agreement protocol with the aim to maintain the units in a desired and controlled formation. This approach has been followed in order to conserve the power of PSO and to control part of its random behaviour with a distributed control algorithm like Consensus.

Essays on the Axiomatic Theory of Matching

This dissertation mimics the Turkish college admission procedure. It started with the purpose to reduce the inefficiencies in Turkish market. For this purpose, we propose a mechanism under a new market structure; as we prefer to call, semi-centralization. In chapter 1, we give a brief summary of Matching Theory. We present the first examples in Matching history with the most general papers and mechanisms. In chapter 2, we propose our mechanism. In real life application, that is in Turkish university placements, the mechanism reduces the inefficiencies of the current system. The success of the mechanism depends on the preference profile. It is easy to show that under complete information the mechanism implements the full set of stable matchings for a given profile. In chapter 3, we refine our basic mechanism. The modification on the mechanism has a crucial effect on the results. The new mechanism is, as we call, a middle mechanism. In one of the subdomain, this mechanism coincides with the original basic mechanism. But, in the other partition, it gives the same results with Gale and Shapley's algorithm. In chapter 4, we apply our basic mechanism to well known Roommate Problem. Since the roommate problem is in one-sided game patern, firstly we propose an auxiliary function to convert the game semi centralized two-sided game, because our basic mechanism is designed for this framework. We show that this process is succesful in finding a stable matching in the existence of stability. We also show that our mechanism easily and simply tells us if a profile lacks of stability by using purified orderings. Finally, we show a method to find all the stable matching in the existence of multi stability. The method is simply to run the mechanism for all of the top agents in the social preference.

Essays in Industrial Organization and Information Technology

Chapter 1 studies how consumers’ switching costs affect the pricing and profits of firms competing in two-sided markets such as Apple and Google in the smartphone market. When two-sided markets are dynamic – rather than merely static – I show that switching costs lower the first-period price if network externalities are strong, which is in contrast to what has been found in one-sided markets. By contrast, switching costs soften price competition in the initial period if network externalities are weak and consumers are more patient than the platforms. Moreover, an increase in switching costs on one side decreases the first-period price on the other side. Chapter 2 examines firms’ incentives to invest in local and flexible resources when demand is uncertain and correlated. I find that market power of the monopolist providing flexible resources distorts investment incentives, while competition mitigates them. The extent of improvement depends critically on demand correlation and the cost of capacity: under social optimum and monopoly, if the flexible resource is cheap, the relationship between investment and correlation is positive, and if it is costly, the relationship becomes negative; under duopoly, the relationship is positive. The analysis also sheds light on some policy discussions in markets such as cloud computing. Chapter 3 develops a theory of sequential investments in cybersecurity. The regulator can use safety standards and liability rules to increase security. I show that the joint use of an optimal standard and a full liability rule leads to underinvestment ex ante and overinvestment ex post. Instead, switching to a partial liability rule can correct the inefficiencies. This suggests that to improve security, the regulator should encourage not only firms, but also consumers to invest in security.

Structural patterns for document engineering: from an empirical bottom-up analysis to an ontological theory

This thesis aims at investigating a new approach to document analysis based on the idea of structural patterns in XML vocabularies. My work is founded on the belief that authors do naturally converge to a reasonable use of markup languages and that extreme, yet valid instances are rare and limited. Actual documents, therefore, may be used to derive classes of elements (patterns) persisting across documents and distilling the conceptualization of the documents and their components, and may give ground for automatic tools and services that rely on no background information (such as schemas) at all. The central part of my work consists in introducing from the ground up a formal theory of eight structural patterns (with three sub-patterns) that are able to express the logical organization of any XML document, and verifying their identifiability in a number of different vocabularies. This model is characterized by and validated against three main dimensions: terseness (i.e. the ability to represent the structure of a document with a small number of objects and composition rules), coverage (i.e. the ability to capture any possible situation in any document) and expressiveness (i.e. the ability to make explicit the semantics of structures, relations and dependencies). An algorithm for the automatic recognition of structural patterns is then presented, together with an evaluation of the results of a test performed on a set of more than 1100 documents from eight very different vocabularies. This language-independent analysis confirms the ability of patterns to capture and summarize the guidelines used by the authors in their everyday practice. Finally, I present some systems that work directly on the pattern-based representation of documents. The ability of these tools to cover very different situations and contexts confirms the effectiveness of the model.

How to explain: from theory to practice

Today we live in an age where the internet and artificial intelligence allow us to search for information through impressive amounts of data, opening up revolutionary new ways to make sense of reality and understand our world. However, it is still an area of improvement to exploit the full potential of large amounts of explainable information by distilling it automatically in an intuitive and user-centred explanation. For instance, different people (or artificial agents) may search for and request different types of information in a different order, so it is unlikely that a short explanation can suffice for all needs in the most generic case. Moreover, dumping a large portion of explainable information in a one-size-fits-all representation may also be sub-optimal, as the needed information may be scarce and dispersed across hundreds of pages. The aim of this work is to investigate how to automatically generate (user-centred) explanations from heterogeneous and large collections of data, with a focus on the concept of explanation in a broad sense, as a critical artefact for intelligence, regardless of whether it is human or robotic. Our approach builds on and extends Achinstein’s philosophical theory of explanations, where explaining is an illocutionary (i.e., broad but relevant) act of usefully answering questions. Specifically, we provide the theoretical foundations of Explanatory Artificial Intelligence (YAI), formally defining a user-centred explanatory tool and the space of all possible explanations, or explanatory space, generated by it. We present empirical results in support of our theory, showcasing the implementation of YAI tools and strategies for assessing explainability. To justify and evaluate the proposed theories and models, we considered case studies at the intersection of artificial intelligence and law, particularly European legislation. Our tools helped produce better explanations of software documentation and legal texts for humans and complex regulations for reinforcement learning agents.