Impatto di rifaximina sul microbiota intestinale: selezione di bifidobatteri antibiotico resistenti

The ideal approach for the long term treatment of intestinal disorders, such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), is represented by a safe and well tolerated therapy able to reduce mucosal inflammation and maintain homeostasis of the intestinal microbiota. A combined therapy with antimicrobial agents, to reduce antigenic load, and immunomodulators, to ameliorate the dysregulated responses, followed by probiotic supplementation has been proposed. Because of the complementary mechanisms of action of antibiotics and probiotics, a combined therapeutic approach would give advantages in terms of enlargement of the antimicrobial spectrum, due to the barrier effect of probiotic bacteria, and limitation of some side effects of traditional chemiotherapy (i.e. indiscriminate decrease of aggressive and protective intestinal bacteria, altered absorption of nutrient elements, allergic and inflammatory reactions). Rifaximin (4-deoxy-4’-methylpyrido[1’,2’-1,2]imidazo[5,4-c]rifamycin SV) is a product of synthesis experiments designed to modify the parent compound, rifamycin, in order to achieve low gastrointestinal absorption while retaining good antibacterial activity. Both experimental and clinical pharmacology clearly show that this compound is a non systemic antibiotic with a broad spectrum of antibacterial action, covering Gram-positive and Gram-negative organisms, both aerobes and anaerobes. Being virtually non absorbed, its bioavailability within the gastrointestinal tract is rather high with intraluminal and faecal drug concentrations that largely exceed the MIC values observed in vitro against a wide range of pathogenic microorganisms. The gastrointestinal tract represents therefore the primary therapeutic target and gastrointestinal infections the main indication. The little value of rifaximin outside the enteric area minimizes both antimicrobial resistance and systemic adverse events. Fermented dairy products enriched with probiotic bacteria have developed into one of the most successful categories of functional foods. Probiotics are defined as “live microorganisms which, when administered in adequate amounts, confer a health benefit on the host” (FAO/WHO, 2002), and mainly include Lactobacillus and Bifidobacterium species. Probiotic bacteria exert a direct effect on the intestinal microbiota of the host and contribute to organoleptic, rheological and nutritional properties of food. Administration of pharmaceutical probiotic formula has been associated with therapeutic effects in treatment of diarrhoea, constipation, flatulence, enteropathogens colonization, gastroenteritis, hypercholesterolemia, IBD, such as ulcerative colitis (UC), Crohn’s disease, pouchitis and irritable bowel syndrome. Prerequisites for probiotics are to be effective and safe. The characteristics of an effective probiotic for gastrointestinal tract disorders are tolerance to upper gastrointestinal environment (resistance to digestion by enteric or pancreatic enzymes, gastric acid and bile), adhesion on intestinal surface to lengthen the retention time, ability to prevent the adherence, establishment and/or replication of pathogens, production of antimicrobial substances, degradation of toxic catabolites by bacterial detoxifying enzymatic activities, and modulation of the host immune responses. This study was carried out using a validated three-stage fermentative continuous system and it is aimed to investigate the effect of rifaximin on the colonic microbial flora of a healthy individual, in terms of bacterial composition and production of fermentative metabolic end products. Moreover, this is the first study that investigates in vitro the impact of the simultaneous administration of the antibiotic rifaximin and the probiotic B. lactis BI07 on the intestinal microbiota. Bacterial groups of interest were evaluated using culture-based methods and molecular culture-independent techniques (FISH, PCR-DGGE). Metabolic outputs in terms of SCFA profiles were determined by HPLC analysis. Collected data demonstrated that rifaximin as well as antibiotic and probiotic treatment did not change drastically the intestinal microflora, whereas bacteria belonging to Bifidobacterium and Lactobacillus significantly increase over the course of the treatment, suggesting a spontaneous upsurge of rifaximin resistance. These results are in agreement with a previous study, in which it has been demonstrated that rifaximin administration in patients with UC, affects the host with minor variations of the intestinal microflora, and that the microbiota is restored over a wash-out period. In particular, several Bifidobacterium rifaximin resistant mutants could be isolated during the antibiotic treatment, but they disappeared after the antibiotic suspension. Furthermore, bacteria belonging to Atopobium spp. and E. rectale/Clostridium cluster XIVa increased significantly after rifaximin and probiotic treatment. Atopobium genus and E. rectale/Clostridium cluster XIVa are saccharolytic, butyrate-producing bacteria, and for these characteristics they are widely considered health-promoting microorganisms. The absence of major variations in the intestinal microflora of a healthy individual and the significant increase in probiotic and health-promoting bacteria concentrations support the rationale of the administration of rifaximin as efficacious and non-dysbiosis promoting therapy and suggest the efficacy of an antibiotic/probiotic combined treatment in several gut pathologies, such as IBD. To assess the use of an antibiotic/probiotic combination for clinical management of intestinal disorders, genetic, proteomic and physiologic approaches were employed to elucidate molecular mechanisms determining rifaximin resistance in Bifidobacterium, and the expected interactions occurring in the gut between these bacteria and the drug. The ability of an antimicrobial agent to select resistance is a relevant factor that affects its usefulness and may diminish its useful life. Rifaximin resistance phenotype was easily acquired by all bifidobacteria analyzed [type strains of the most representative intestinal bifidobacterial species (B. infantis, B. breve, B. longum, B. adolescentis and B. bifidum) and three bifidobacteria included in a pharmaceutical probiotic preparation (B. lactis BI07, B. breve BBSF and B. longum BL04)] and persisted for more than 400 bacterial generations in the absence of selective pressure. Exclusion of any reversion phenomenon suggested two hypotheses: (i) stable and immobile genetic elements encode resistance; (ii) the drug moiety does not act as an inducer of the resistance phenotype, but enables selection of resistant mutants. Since point mutations in rpoB have been indicated as representing the principal factor determining rifampicin resistance in E. coli and M. tuberculosis, whether a similar mechanism also occurs in Bifidobacterium was verified. The analysis of a 129 bp rpoB core region of several wild-type and resistant bifidobacteria revealed five different types of miss-sense mutations in codons 513, 516, 522 and 529. Position 529 was a novel mutation site, not previously described, and position 522 appeared interesting for both the double point substitutions and the heterogeneous profile of nucleotide changes. The sequence heterogeneity of codon 522 in Bifidobacterium leads to hypothesize an indirect role of its encoded amino acid in the binding with the rifaximin moiety. These results demonstrated the chromosomal nature of rifaximin resistance in Bifidobacterium, minimizing risk factors for horizontal transmission of resistance elements between intestinal microbial species. Further proteomic and physiologic investigations were carried out using B. lactis BI07, component of a pharmaceutical probiotic preparation, as a model strain. The choice of this strain was determined based on the following elements: (i) B. lactis BI07 is able to survive and persist in the gut; (ii) a proteomic overview of this strain has been recently reported. The involvement of metabolic changes associated with rifaximin resistance was investigated by proteomic analysis performed with two-dimensional electrophoresis and mass spectrometry. Comparative proteomic mapping of BI07-wt and BI07-res revealed that most differences in protein expression patterns were genetically encoded rather than induced by antibiotic exposure. In particular, rifaximin resistance phenotype was characterized by increased expression levels of stress proteins. Overexpression of stress proteins was expected, as they represent a common non specific response by bacteria when stimulated by different shock conditions, including exposure to toxic agents like heavy metals, oxidants, acids, bile salts and antibiotics. Also, positive transcription regulators were found to be overexpressed in BI07-res, suggesting that bacteria could activate compensatory mechanisms to assist the transcription process in the presence of RNA polymerase inhibitors. Other differences in expression profiles were related to proteins involved in central metabolism; these modifications suggest metabolic disadvantages of resistant mutants in comparison with sensitive bifidobacteria in the gut environment, without selective pressure, explaining their disappearance from faeces of patients with UC after interruption of antibiotic treatment. The differences observed between BI07-wt e BI07-res proteomic patterns, as well as the high frequency of silent mutations reported for resistant mutants of Bifidobacterium could be the consequences of an increased mutation rate, mechanism which may lead to persistence of resistant bacteria in the population. However, the in vivo disappearance of resistant mutants in absence of selective pressure, allows excluding the upsurge of compensatory mutations without loss of resistance. Furthermore, the proteomic characterization of the resistant phenotype suggests that rifaximin resistance is associated with a reduced bacterial fitness in B. lactis BI07-res, supporting the hypothesis of a biological cost of antibiotic resistance in Bifidobacterium. The hypothesis of rifaximin inactivation by bacterial enzymatic activities was verified by using liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. Neither chemical modifications nor degradation derivatives of the rifaximin moiety were detected. The exclusion of a biodegradation pattern for the drug was further supported by the quantitative recovery in BI07-res culture fractions of the total rifaximin amount (100 μg/ml) added to the culture medium. To confirm the main role of the mutation on the β chain of RNA polymerase in rifaximin resistance acquisition, transcription activity of crude enzymatic extracts of BI07-res cells was evaluated. Although the inhibition effects of rifaximin on in vitro transcription were definitely higher for BI07-wt than for BI07-res, a partial resistance of the mutated RNA polymerase at rifaximin concentrations > 10 μg/ml was supposed, on the basis of the calculated differences in inhibition percentages between BI07-wt and BI07-res. By considering the resistance of entire BI07-res cells to rifaximin concentrations > 100 μg/ml, supplementary resistance mechanisms may take place in vivo. A barrier for the rifaximin uptake in BI07-res cells was suggested in this study, on the basis of the major portion of the antibiotic found to be bound to the cellular pellet respect to the portion recovered in the cellular lysate. Related to this finding, a resistance mechanism involving changes of membrane permeability was supposed. A previous study supports this hypothesis, demonstrating the involvement of surface properties and permeability in natural resistance to rifampicin in mycobacteria, isolated from cases of human infection, which possessed a rifampicin-susceptible RNA polymerase. To understand the mechanism of membrane barrier, variations in percentage of saturated and unsaturated FAs and their methylation products in BI07-wt and BI07-res membranes were investigated. While saturated FAs confer rigidity to membrane and resistance to stress agents, such as antibiotics, a high level of lipid unsaturation is associated with high fluidity and susceptibility to stresses. Thus, the higher percentage of saturated FAs during the stationary phase of BI07-res could represent a defence mechanism of mutant cells to prevent the antibiotic uptake. Furthermore, the increase of CFAs such as dihydrosterculic acid during the stationary phase of BI07-res suggests that this CFA could be more suitable than its isomer lactobacillic acid to interact with and prevent the penetration of exogenous molecules including rifaximin. Finally, the impact of rifaximin on immune regulatory functions of the gut was evaluated. It has been suggested a potential anti-inflammatory effect of rifaximin, with reduced secretion of IFN-γ in a rodent model of colitis. Analogously, it has been reported a significant decrease in IL-8, MCP-1, MCP-3 e IL-10 levels in patients affected by pouchitis, treated with a combined therapy of rifaximin and ciprofloxacin. Since rifaximin enables in vivo and in vitro selection of Bifidobacterium resistant mutants with high frequency, the immunomodulation activities of rifaximin associated with a B. lactis resistant mutant were also taken into account. Data obtained from PBMC stimulation experiments suggest the following conclusions: (i) rifaximin does not exert any effect on production of IL-1β, IL-6 and IL-10, whereas it weakly stimulates production of TNF-α; (ii) B. lactis appears as a good inducer of IL-1β, IL-6 and TNF-α; (iii) combination of BI07-res and rifaximin exhibits a lower stimulation effect than BI07-res alone, especially for IL-6. These results confirm the potential anti-inflammatory effect of rifaximin, and are in agreement with several studies that report a transient pro-inflammatory response associated with probiotic administration. The understanding of the molecular factors determining rifaximin resistance in the genus Bifidobacterium assumes an applicative significance at pharmaceutical and medical level, as it represents the scientific basis to justify the simultaneous use of the antibiotic rifaximin and probiotic bifidobacteria in the clinical treatment of intestinal disorders.

Caratterizzazione del legame di molecole di interesse farmaceutico alla sieroalbumina umana mediante biocromatografia e dicroismo circolare

Negli ultimi anni, un crescente numero di studiosi ha focalizzato la propria attenzione sullo sviluppo di strategie che permettessero di caratterizzare le proprietà ADMET dei farmaci in via di sviluppo, il più rapidamente possibile. Questa tendenza origina dalla consapevolezza che circa la metà dei farmaci in via di sviluppo non viene commercializzato perché ha carenze nelle caratteristiche ADME, e che almeno la metà delle molecole che riescono ad essere commercializzate, hanno comunque qualche problema tossicologico o ADME [1]. Infatti, poco importa quanto una molecola possa essere attiva o specifica: perché possa diventare farmaco è necessario che venga ben assorbita, distribuita nell’organismo, metabolizzata non troppo rapidamente, ne troppo lentamente e completamente eliminata. Inoltre la molecola e i suoi metaboliti non dovrebbero essere tossici per l’organismo. Quindi è chiaro come una rapida determinazione dei parametri ADMET in fasi precoci dello sviluppo del farmaco, consenta di risparmiare tempo e denaro, permettendo di selezionare da subito i composti più promettenti e di lasciar perdere quelli con caratteristiche negative. Questa tesi si colloca in questo contesto, e mostra l’applicazione di una tecnica semplice, la biocromatografia, per caratterizzare rapidamente il legame di librerie di composti alla sieroalbumina umana (HSA). Inoltre mostra l’utilizzo di un’altra tecnica indipendente, il dicroismo circolare, che permette di studiare gli stessi sistemi farmaco-proteina, in soluzione, dando informazioni supplementari riguardo alla stereochimica del processo di legame. La HSA è la proteina più abbondante presente nel sangue. Questa proteina funziona da carrier per un gran numero di molecole, sia endogene, come ad esempio bilirubina, tiroxina, ormoni steroidei, acidi grassi, che xenobiotici. Inoltre aumenta la solubilità di molecole lipofile poco solubili in ambiente acquoso, come ad esempio i tassani. Il legame alla HSA è generalmente stereoselettivo e ad avviene a livello di siti di legame ad alta affinità. Inoltre è ben noto che la competizione tra farmaci o tra un farmaco e metaboliti endogeni, possa variare in maniera significativa la loro frazione libera, modificandone l’attività e la tossicità. Per queste sue proprietà la HSA può influenzare sia le proprietà farmacocinetiche che farmacodinamiche dei farmaci. Non è inusuale che un intero progetto di sviluppo di un farmaco possa venire abbandonato a causa di un’affinità troppo elevata alla HSA, o a un tempo di emivita troppo corto, o a una scarsa distribuzione dovuta ad un debole legame alla HSA. Dal punto di vista farmacocinetico, quindi, la HSA è la proteina di trasporto del plasma più importante. Un gran numero di pubblicazioni dimostra l’affidabilità della tecnica biocromatografica nello studio dei fenomeni di bioriconoscimento tra proteine e piccole molecole [2-6]. Il mio lavoro si è focalizzato principalmente sull’uso della biocromatografia come metodo per valutare le caratteristiche di legame di alcune serie di composti di interesse farmaceutico alla HSA, e sul miglioramento di tale tecnica. Per ottenere una miglior comprensione dei meccanismi di legame delle molecole studiate, gli stessi sistemi farmaco-HSA sono stati studiati anche con il dicroismo circolare (CD). Inizialmente, la HSA è stata immobilizzata su una colonna di silice epossidica impaccata 50 x 4.6 mm di diametro interno, utilizzando una procedura precedentemente riportata in letteratura [7], con alcune piccole modifiche. In breve, l’immobilizzazione è stata effettuata ponendo a ricircolo, attraverso una colonna precedentemente impaccata, una soluzione di HSA in determinate condizioni di pH e forza ionica. La colonna è stata quindi caratterizzata per quanto riguarda la quantità di proteina correttamente immobilizzata, attraverso l’analisi frontale di L-triptofano [8]. Di seguito, sono stati iniettati in colonna alcune soluzioni raceme di molecole note legare la HSA in maniera enantioselettiva, per controllare che la procedura di immobilizzazione non avesse modificato le proprietà di legame della proteina. Dopo essere stata caratterizzata, la colonna è stata utilizzata per determinare la percentuale di legame di una piccola serie di inibitori della proteasi HIV (IPs), e per individuarne il sito(i) di legame. La percentuale di legame è stata calcolata attraverso il fattore di capacità (k) dei campioni. Questo parametro in fase acquosa è stato estrapolato linearmente dal grafico log k contro la percentuale (v/v) di 1-propanolo presente nella fase mobile. Solamente per due dei cinque composti analizzati è stato possibile misurare direttamente il valore di k in assenza di solvente organico. Tutti gli IPs analizzati hanno mostrato un’elevata percentuale di legame alla HSA: in particolare, il valore per ritonavir, lopinavir e saquinavir è risultato maggiore del 95%. Questi risultati sono in accordo con dati presenti in letteratura, ottenuti attraverso il biosensore ottico [9]. Inoltre, questi risultati sono coerenti con la significativa riduzione di attività inibitoria di questi composti osservata in presenza di HSA. Questa riduzione sembra essere maggiore per i composti che legano maggiormente la proteina [10]. Successivamente sono stati eseguiti degli studi di competizione tramite cromatografia zonale. Questo metodo prevede di utilizzare una soluzione a concentrazione nota di un competitore come fase mobile, mentre piccole quantità di analita vengono iniettate nella colonna funzionalizzata con HSA. I competitori sono stati selezionati in base al loro legame selettivo ad uno dei principali siti di legame sulla proteina. In particolare, sono stati utilizzati salicilato di sodio, ibuprofene e valproato di sodio come marker dei siti I, II e sito della bilirubina, rispettivamente. Questi studi hanno mostrato un legame indipendente dei PIs ai siti I e II, mentre è stata osservata una debole anticooperatività per il sito della bilirubina. Lo stesso sistema farmaco-proteina è stato infine investigato in soluzione attraverso l’uso del dicroismo circolare. In particolare, è stato monitorata la variazione del segnale CD indotto di un complesso equimolare [HSA]/[bilirubina], a seguito dell’aggiunta di aliquote di ritonavir, scelto come rappresentante della serie. I risultati confermano la lieve anticooperatività per il sito della bilirubina osservato precedentemente negli studi biocromatografici. Successivamente, lo stesso protocollo descritto precedentemente è stato applicato a una colonna di silice epossidica monolitica 50 x 4.6 mm, per valutare l’affidabilità del supporto monolitico per applicazioni biocromatografiche. Il supporto monolitico monolitico ha mostrato buone caratteristiche cromatografiche in termini di contropressione, efficienza e stabilità, oltre che affidabilità nella determinazione dei parametri di legame alla HSA. Questa colonna è stata utilizzata per la determinazione della percentuale di legame alla HSA di una serie di poliamminochinoni sviluppati nell’ambito di una ricerca sulla malattia di Alzheimer. Tutti i composti hanno mostrato una percentuale di legame superiore al 95%. Inoltre, è stata osservata una correlazione tra percentuale di legame è caratteristiche della catena laterale (lunghezza e numero di gruppi amminici). Successivamente sono stati effettuati studi di competizione dei composti in esame tramite il dicroismo circolare in cui è stato evidenziato un effetto anticooperativo dei poliamminochinoni ai siti I e II, mentre rispetto al sito della bilirubina il legame si è dimostrato indipendente. Le conoscenze acquisite con il supporto monolitico precedentemente descritto, sono state applicate a una colonna di silice epossidica più corta (10 x 4.6 mm). Il metodo di determinazione della percentuale di legame utilizzato negli studi precedenti si basa su dati ottenuti con più esperimenti, quindi è necessario molto tempo prima di ottenere il dato finale. L’uso di una colonna più corta permette di ridurre i tempi di ritenzione degli analiti, per cui la determinazione della percentuale di legame alla HSA diventa molto più rapida. Si passa quindi da una analisi a medio rendimento a una analisi di screening ad alto rendimento (highthroughput- screening, HTS). Inoltre, la riduzione dei tempi di analisi, permette di evitare l’uso di soventi organici nella fase mobile. Dopo aver caratterizzato la colonna da 10 mm con lo stesso metodo precedentemente descritto per le altre colonne, sono stati iniettati una serie di standard variando il flusso della fase mobile, per valutare la possibilità di utilizzare flussi elevati. La colonna è stata quindi impiegata per stimare la percentuale di legame di una serie di molecole con differenti caratteristiche chimiche. Successivamente è stata valutata la possibilità di utilizzare una colonna così corta, anche per studi di competizione, ed è stata indagato il legame di una serie di composti al sito I. Infine è stata effettuata una valutazione della stabilità della colonna in seguito ad un uso estensivo. L’uso di supporti cromatografici funzionalizzati con albumine di diversa origine (ratto, cane, guinea pig, hamster, topo, coniglio), può essere proposto come applicazione futura di queste colonne HTS. Infatti, la possibilità di ottenere informazioni del legame dei farmaci in via di sviluppo alle diverse albumine, permetterebbe un migliore paragone tra i dati ottenuti tramite esperimenti in vitro e i dati ottenuti con esperimenti sull’animale, facilitando la successiva estrapolazione all’uomo, con la velocità di un metodo HTS. Inoltre, verrebbe ridotto anche il numero di animali utilizzati nelle sperimentazioni. Alcuni lavori presenti in letteratura dimostrano l’affidabilita di colonne funzionalizzate con albumine di diversa origine [11-13]: l’utilizzo di colonne più corte potrebbe aumentarne le applicazioni.

Experimental and numerical analyses about the efficiency of flow through devices for the sediment controll in urban runoff

As land is developed, the impervious surfaces that are created increase the amount of runoff during rainfall events, disrupting the natural hydrologic cycle, with an increment in volume of runoff and in pollutant loadings. Pollutants deposited or derived from an activity on the land surface will likely end up in stormwater runoff in some concentration, such as nutrients, sediment, heavy metals, hydrocarbons, gasoline additives, pathogens, deicers, herbicides and pesticides. Several of these pollutants are particulate-bound, so it appears clear that sediment removal can provide significant water-quality improvements and it appears to be important the knowledge of the ability of stromwater treatment devices to retain particulate matter. For this reason three different units which remove sediments have been tested through laboratory. In particular a roadside gully pot has been tested under steady hydraulic conditions, varying the characteristics of the influent solids (diameter, particle size distribution and specific gravity). The efficiency in terms of particles retained has been evaluated as a function of influent flow rate and particles characteristics; results have been compared to efficiency evaluated applying an overflow rate model. Furthermore the role of particles settling velocity in efficiency determination has been investigated. After the experimental runs on the gully pot, a standard full-scale model of an hydrodynamic separator (HS) has been tested under unsteady influent flow rate condition, and constant solid concentration at the input. The results presented in this study illustrate that particle separation efficiency of the unit is predominately influenced by operating flow rate, which strongly affects the particles and hydraulic residence time of the system. The efficiency data have been compared to results obtained from a modified overflow rate model; moreover the residence time distribution has been experimentally determined through tracer analyses for several steady flow rates. Finally three testing experiments have been performed for two different configurations of a full-scale model of a clarifier (linear and crenulated) under unsteady influent flow rate condition, and constant solid concentration at the input. The results illustrate that particle separation efficiency of the unit is predominately influenced by the configuration of the unit itself. Turbidity measures have been used to compare turbidity with the suspended sediments concentration, in order to find a correlation between these two values, which can allow to have a measure of the sediments concentration simply installing a turbidity probe.

Algal wastewater treatment and biomass producing potential: nutrient removal efficiency and cell physiological responses

Microalgae are sun - light cell factories that convert carbon dioxide to biofuels, foods, feeds, and other bioproducts. The concept of microalgae cultivation as an integrated system in wastewater treatment has optimized the potential of the microalgae - based biofuel production. These microorganisms contains lipids, polysaccharides, proteins, pigments and other cell compounds, and their biomass can provide different kinds of biofuels such as biodiesel, biomethane and ethanol. The algal biomass application strongly depends on the cell composition and the production of biofuels appears to be economically convenient only in conjunction with wastewater treatment. The aim of this research thesis was to investigate a biological wastewater system on a laboratory scale growing a newly isolated freshwater microalgae, Desmodesmus communis, in effluents generated by a local wastewater reclamation facility in Cesena (Emilia Romagna, Italy) in batch and semi - continuous cultures. This work showed the potential utilization of this microorganism in an algae - based wastewater treatment; Desmodesmus communis had a great capacity to grow in the wastewater, competing with other microorganisms naturally present and adapting to various environmental conditions such as different irradiance levels and nutrient concentrations. The nutrient removal efficiency was characterized at different hydraulic retention times as well as the algal growth rate and biomass composition in terms of proteins, polysaccharides, total lipids and total fatty acids (TFAs) which are considered the substrate for biodiesel production. The biochemical analyses were coupled with the biomass elemental analysis which specified the amount of carbon and nitrogen in the algal biomass. Furthermore photosynthetic investigations were carried out to better correlate the environmental conditions with the physiology responses of the cells and consequently get more information to optimize the growth rate and the increase of TFAs and C/N ratio, cellular compounds and biomass parameter which are fundamental in the biomass energy recovery.

Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.